5 ms·

In my circle people are leaving eng jobs as seniors where they make 200k to offers of 400k-600k. People who remained got little to no raises and are looking aro

by dudus 5y ago

In my circle people are leaving eng jobs as seniors where they make 200k to offers of 400k-600k. People who remained got little to no raises and are looking around for other opportunities. It's crazy, to me it feels like a bubble waiting to burst.

lotsofpulp 5y ago
I am placing my bets on the USD losing purchasing power rather than nominal wages declining again. It would not be good for either political party to let nominal wages go down, at least for the bottom 50% of earners.
- dcolkitt 5y ago
  Agree with this. For the "bubble" in high-end SWE comp to burst, the "bubble" in VC would have to burst. And VC isn't a liquid asset class that's likely to crash on a Black Tuesday like event. The explosion in VC capital has been primarily driven by a reach for yield among institutions, endowments, pensions and sovereign wealth funds. All of this money is extremely sticky, and once allocated will take 10+ years to de-allocate. So really the only way we see private equity funding collapse is if public equities quickly crater, forcing endowments to rebalance to stay in their allocation mandate. And that could possibly happen, given how rich public equity valuations are. But the reality is the modern Fed is never again in our lifetime going to let nominal stock prices fall by 35% or more like they did in 2008. The traumas from the GFC are simply too ingrained in the current generation of central bankers and policy makers. If push comes to shove and equities hit a bear market (20% drawdown), the Fed is going to turn the liquidity faucet to max. The forever war against Covid gives them a convenient excuse. In the scenario, you'll probably just see the Fed let inflation run hot at 10%+ for a few years. Again the Covid transitory narrative gives the cover.
  - 908B64B197 5y ago
    > The explosion in VC capital has been primarily driven by a reach for yield among institutions, endowments, pensions and sovereign wealth funds. Also, where else would they invest this money?
nopenopenopeno 5y ago
Can you elaborate on the bubble bursting part? I don’t have much knowledge about how this works. If companies couldn’t afford those salaries, why would they be paying them? I’m probably misunderstanding.
- MattGaiser 5y ago
  1. Afford is a weird concept when you can go to a multi billion dollar company without ever making a profit with VC investment. A lot of tech jobs are in businesses that may not be able to make money. 2. It could lead to companies re-evaluating whether all their projects are worth it. Anecdotally, I have heard of some automation projects being cancelled as manual workers in other countries are cheaper.
  - nopenopenopeno 5y ago
    Thanks for the explanation. This makes sense.
- dudus 5y ago
  That is a very personal opinion, I have very low risk apetite when it comes to investing. And the bubble i mention is me translating that to the job market. If you look at the job market as a commodity where companies are on the buy side and workers are on the sell side you could say that the price of the commodity spiked suddenly. Whenever that happens I'm usually wary of the corrections that surely follow. That could mean mass layoffs in the future when companies realize the commodity isn't worth that much. It could mean business closings due to lack of purchase power to compete. It could mean inflation to adjust the purchase power. Again it's all speculation. And it's derived from risk tolerance. If you like risky investments it makes sense to try to capitalize and sell your labor for the most you can. I can't blame you.
  - nopenopenopeno 5y ago
    Thanks for explaining. This makes a lot of sense.
bcrosby95 5y ago
In my circle I know a lot of people making 400-600k, but the 1 senior person that went job hunting, after about 6 months, ended up at a startup making 150k.
decafninja 5y ago
Software engineers specifically probably benefited a lot from WFHing in 2020-2021 by being able to grind leetcode during downtime within working hours. Office workers (including SWEs) in general benefited a lot because WFHing made the logistics of interviewing around significantly easier. A lot of my old department at my previous company jumped ship for places that offered significantly more pay (specifically, tech companies) or better WFH policies. More people left in the span of a few months during the summer of 2021 than I recall leaving during my entire tenure there (7 years).
- ncpa-cpl 5y ago
  > or better WFH policies The main reason I stay in my job is that our department is pro WFH.
  - decafninja 5y ago
    I have heard since my departure that base salaries have been bumped up. Now compensation is competitive versus other banks at least, but probably still around at least ~25% lower than most decent tech companies, and ~100% lower than FAANG tier companies. WFH policy is as conservative and hostile as ever AFAIK.
- alienthrowaway 5y ago
  > Software engineers specifically probably benefited a lot from WFHing in 2020-2021 by being able to grind leetcode during downtime within working hours. Speaking for myself, grinding leetcode in 2021 was very difficult because I was close to burning-out (very little outdoor recreation, blurred lines between work hours and non-work hours which resulted in me frequently working 9-11 hours per day (with breaks). I think it would have been easier pre-covid. With in-person schools and daycares closed and the kids at home, there was no "downtime within working hours" - cue the working late at night after kids had gone to bed to make up for it (and the subsequent near-burnout experience). Also, my recruiter told me they were seeing record-high post-screen interview cancellations by interviewees during COVID times - but perhaps their numbers were not representative. My suspicion is that there was a massive mental health disaster that was mostly hidden from view[1], and software engineers were not spared. 1. I wasn't even aware of my mental state until I started grinding leetcode and recognized the tell-tale signs of burnout as I had experienced full-blown burnout before (my self-motivation was reduced, but not yet gone)
Cederfjard 5y ago
Is this at FAANG? Or smaller companies?

by dudus 5y ago

lotsofpulp 5y ago

I am placing my bets on the USD losing purchasing power rather than nominal wages declining again. It would not be good for either political party to let nominal wages go down, at least for the bottom 50% of earners.

dcolkitt 5y ago
Agree with this. For the "bubble" in high-end SWE comp to burst, the "bubble" in VC would have to burst. And VC isn't a liquid asset class that's likely to crash on a Black Tuesday like event. The explosion in VC capital has been primarily driven by a reach for yield among institutions, endowments, pensions and sovereign wealth funds. All of this money is extremely sticky, and once allocated will take 10+ years to de-allocate. So really the only way we see private equity funding collapse is if public equities quickly crater, forcing endowments to rebalance to stay in their allocation mandate. And that could possibly happen, given how rich public equity valuations are. But the reality is the modern Fed is never again in our lifetime going to let nominal stock prices fall by 35% or more like they did in 2008. The traumas from the GFC are simply too ingrained in the current generation of central bankers and policy makers. If push comes to shove and equities hit a bear market (20% drawdown), the Fed is going to turn the liquidity faucet to max. The forever war against Covid gives them a convenient excuse. In the scenario, you'll probably just see the Fed let inflation run hot at 10%+ for a few years. Again the Covid transitory narrative gives the cover.
- 908B64B197 5y ago
  > The explosion in VC capital has been primarily driven by a reach for yield among institutions, endowments, pensions and sovereign wealth funds. Also, where else would they invest this money?

nopenopenopeno 5y ago

Can you elaborate on the bubble bursting part? I don’t have much knowledge about how this works. If companies couldn’t afford those salaries, why would they be paying them? I’m probably misunderstanding.

MattGaiser 5y ago
1. Afford is a weird concept when you can go to a multi billion dollar company without ever making a profit with VC investment. A lot of tech jobs are in businesses that may not be able to make money. 2. It could lead to companies re-evaluating whether all their projects are worth it. Anecdotally, I have heard of some automation projects being cancelled as manual workers in other countries are cheaper.
- nopenopenopeno 5y ago
  Thanks for the explanation. This makes sense.
dudus 5y ago
That is a very personal opinion, I have very low risk apetite when it comes to investing. And the bubble i mention is me translating that to the job market. If you look at the job market as a commodity where companies are on the buy side and workers are on the sell side you could say that the price of the commodity spiked suddenly. Whenever that happens I'm usually wary of the corrections that surely follow. That could mean mass layoffs in the future when companies realize the commodity isn't worth that much. It could mean business closings due to lack of purchase power to compete. It could mean inflation to adjust the purchase power. Again it's all speculation. And it's derived from risk tolerance. If you like risky investments it makes sense to try to capitalize and sell your labor for the most you can. I can't blame you.
- nopenopenopeno 5y ago
  Thanks for explaining. This makes a lot of sense.

bcrosby95 5y ago

In my circle I know a lot of people making 400-600k, but the 1 senior person that went job hunting, after about 6 months, ended up at a startup making 150k.

decafninja 5y ago

Software engineers specifically probably benefited a lot from WFHing in 2020-2021 by being able to grind leetcode during downtime within working hours. Office workers (including SWEs) in general benefited a lot because WFHing made the logistics of interviewing around significantly easier. A lot of my old department at my previous company jumped ship for places that offered significantly more pay (specifically, tech companies) or better WFH policies. More people left in the span of a few months during the summer of 2021 than I recall leaving during my entire tenure there (7 years).

ncpa-cpl 5y ago
> or better WFH policies The main reason I stay in my job is that our department is pro WFH.
- decafninja 5y ago
  I have heard since my departure that base salaries have been bumped up. Now compensation is competitive versus other banks at least, but probably still around at least ~25% lower than most decent tech companies, and ~100% lower than FAANG tier companies. WFH policy is as conservative and hostile as ever AFAIK.
alienthrowaway 5y ago
> Software engineers specifically probably benefited a lot from WFHing in 2020-2021 by being able to grind leetcode during downtime within working hours. Speaking for myself, grinding leetcode in 2021 was very difficult because I was close to burning-out (very little outdoor recreation, blurred lines between work hours and non-work hours which resulted in me frequently working 9-11 hours per day (with breaks). I think it would have been easier pre-covid. With in-person schools and daycares closed and the kids at home, there was no "downtime within working hours" - cue the working late at night after kids had gone to bed to make up for it (and the subsequent near-burnout experience). Also, my recruiter told me they were seeing record-high post-screen interview cancellations by interviewees during COVID times - but perhaps their numbers were not representative. My suspicion is that there was a massive mental health disaster that was mostly hidden from view[1], and software engineers were not spared. 1. I wasn't even aware of my mental state until I started grinding leetcode and recognized the tell-tale signs of burnout as I had experienced full-blown burnout before (my self-motivation was reduced, but not yet gone)

Cederfjard 5y ago

Is this at FAANG? Or smaller companies?