4 ms·

The article actually says it's 233% increase in chance of death for people younger than 65, which is even scarier: > For people younger than 65 who were hospit

by btown 5y ago

The article actually says it's 233% increase in chance of death for people younger than 65, which is even scarier: > For people younger than 65 who were hospitalized with COVID-19, the risk of death in the 12 months after the infection was 233% higher than it was for people who did not have the disease, results published in the journal Frontiers in Medicine have shown. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.778434/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.77843...

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Thanks for the correction! My mistake - but I would argue it's WAY less scary. Chance of death is already high when you're 80 (4%). An extra 133% is 5.32% chance of death. If you're 16 is 0.02%. An extra 133% is a rounding error.
- ArnoVW 5y ago
  Extra 133%, not extra 33%. So from 4% to 9.33%, not 5.33%
- mupuff1234 5y ago
  But if that extra 133% risk is kept throughout your lifetime then back to being scary :/
- nkozyra 5y ago
  It's an extra ~1,400 deaths in the 15-18 age group.
jdminhbg 5y ago
This is comparing the risk of death for people who are hospitalized to the risk for their age group, which is missing the major confounding factor that those who are hospitalized for Covid (especially in younger cohorts) are very disproportionately sick (from diabetes, obesity, immune issues from transplants, etc).
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  There's no evidence that Covid infects diabetics (or other "unhealthy" people) at a higher rate. Hospitalizes them, sure. The negative group should've had a correct proportion of "unhealthy" people. Again - even if it is only increasing chance of death in "unhealthy" people... It's still increasing chance of death!
  - jdminhbg 5y ago
    > Hospitalizes them, sure. Re-read the citation, it's specifically looking at hospitalization.
  - MathCodeLove 5y ago
    Why do you keep putting quotes around "unhealthy"? If someone has diabetes they are, by definition, unhealthy.
- nostrademons 5y ago
  From the linked article: "The 12-month risk of mortality was assessed in unadjusted Cox regressions and those adjusted for age, sex, race and comorbidities." They controlled for comorbidities.
  - btown 5y ago
    Specifically, they use the Charlson Comorbidity Index: https://www.mdcalc.com/charlson-comorbidity-index-cci https://www.mdcalc.com/charlson-comorbidity-index-cci https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3818341/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3818341/ - a peer-reviewed proof demonstrating how comorbidity indices are effective
Const-me 5y ago
The researchers found a strong positive correlation between severe COVID-19 (defined as a COVID-19 hospitalization) and chance of death for any reason. There're obvious reasons why people of all ages with preexisting health issues are likely to get severe COVID-19 as opposed to asymptomatic, mild or moderate one, and the same people are also more likely to die from other health-related reasons. This would explain the correlation they found. However, in the "Discussion" section they wrote this: Based on the evidence that contracting severe COVID-19 infection increases the risk of death after surviving the episode, it is clear that prevention of significant COVID-19 infection is the most effective way to decrease the risk of death following COVID-19 Does anyone understands why exactly is it clear? Note the graph in the same article shows people with mild COVID-19 have lower risk of death compared to people with no COVID at all.
blindmute 5y ago
If you get hospitalized from covid, you're already a sickly person, so this isn't surprising. More of a correlation than a cause.

by btown 5y ago

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago

Thanks for the correction! My mistake - but I would argue it's WAY less scary. Chance of death is already high when you're 80 (4%). An extra 133% is 5.32% chance of death. If you're 16 is 0.02%. An extra 133% is a rounding error.

ArnoVW 5y ago
Extra 133%, not extra 33%. So from 4% to 9.33%, not 5.33%
mupuff1234 5y ago
But if that extra 133% risk is kept throughout your lifetime then back to being scary :/
nkozyra 5y ago
It's an extra ~1,400 deaths in the 15-18 age group.

jdminhbg 5y ago

This is comparing the risk of death for people who are hospitalized to the risk for their age group, which is missing the major confounding factor that those who are hospitalized for Covid (especially in younger cohorts) are very disproportionately sick (from diabetes, obesity, immune issues from transplants, etc).

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
There's no evidence that Covid infects diabetics (or other "unhealthy" people) at a higher rate. Hospitalizes them, sure. The negative group should've had a correct proportion of "unhealthy" people. Again - even if it is only increasing chance of death in "unhealthy" people... It's still increasing chance of death!
- jdminhbg 5y ago
  > Hospitalizes them, sure. Re-read the citation, it's specifically looking at hospitalization.
- MathCodeLove 5y ago
  Why do you keep putting quotes around "unhealthy"? If someone has diabetes they are, by definition, unhealthy.
nostrademons 5y ago
From the linked article: "The 12-month risk of mortality was assessed in unadjusted Cox regressions and those adjusted for age, sex, race and comorbidities." They controlled for comorbidities.
- btown 5y ago
  Specifically, they use the Charlson Comorbidity Index: https://www.mdcalc.com/charlson-comorbidity-index-cci https://www.mdcalc.com/charlson-comorbidity-index-cci https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3818341/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3818341/ - a peer-reviewed proof demonstrating how comorbidity indices are effective

Const-me 5y ago

The researchers found a strong positive correlation between severe COVID-19 (defined as a COVID-19 hospitalization) and chance of death for any reason. There're obvious reasons why people of all ages with preexisting health issues are likely to get severe COVID-19 as opposed to asymptomatic, mild or moderate one, and the same people are also more likely to die from other health-related reasons. This would explain the correlation they found. However, in the "Discussion" section they wrote this: Based on the evidence that contracting severe COVID-19 infection increases the risk of death after surviving the episode, it is clear that prevention of significant COVID-19 infection is the most effective way to decrease the risk of death following COVID-19 Does anyone understands why exactly is it clear? Note the graph in the same article shows people with mild COVID-19 have lower risk of death compared to people with no COVID at all.

blindmute 5y ago

If you get hospitalized from covid, you're already a sickly person, so this isn't surprising. More of a correlation than a cause.