5 ms·

We manage quite nicely with the flu vaccine - every year a different vaccine based on epidemiological forecasting. Is there any reason it can't be done with COV

We manage quite nicely with the flu vaccine - every year a different vaccine based on epidemiological forecasting. Is there any reason it can't be done with COVID - the development of mRNA vaccines should make the task easier!

verdverm 5y ago
How many people take the flu shot? It's about volume and choice. Most likely a covid element will be added to the annual flu shot, or covid trends towards the common cold and we stop worrying so much
- HarryHirsch 5y ago
  The CDC actually has numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-dashboard.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-das... - it's about 50 % of adults and 50 % of children. So, uptake is roughly the same order of magnitude as the COVID vaccine. The logistics aren't dismal. BTW, there's no evolutionary pressure for COVID to become like the common cold, let's not perpetuate that meme.
  - detaro 5y ago
    And you think these statistics cleanly extrapolate over the entire globe? Especially if you talk about the mRNA vaccines which are a bit tricky regarding storage conditions?
    - HarryHirsch 5y ago
      I am saying that the US (and Europe, and Australia/NZ, and China, and India, probably Brazil, Argentina and Chile as well) could, if they wanted. The more interesting question is why the AZ guy says we can't, and I have no idea why.
      - detaro 5y ago
        So that leaves 2-3 billion people that can't? Seems like a pretty could argument for why we can't vaccinate the planet every 6 months.
  - verdverm 5y ago
    Coronavirus is one of the main viruses which cause the common cold, Covid is a coronavirus, Covid has been decreasing in severity with each new major variety. Let's not assume that the Covid will not follow the normal evolutionary trajectory of viruses, ie stop the fear porn and labelling things memes to justify dismissal of valid possibilities
    - rsfern 5y ago
      > Covid has been decreasing in severity with each new major variety. That’s not accurate, delta was a marked increase in severity. Omicron is reduced in severity relative to delta, but it’s probably on par with the original strain once prior immunity is accounted for.
      - yehosef 5y ago
        sources? I'm under the impression that Omicron is less severe than original strains.
        rsfern 5y ago
        This post [0] summarizes the early research on omicron hospitalization risk. The preprints linked are now like 2 weeks old, so probably there is better data available, but I haven’t come across any analysis yet. I’ve been reading that ICU utilization is markedly lower with omicron, but I haven’t seen any statistical analysis yet decoupling prior immunity from the intrinsic virulence of omicron. Still points toward lower severity in general. Keep in mind the uncertainty factor is high on these studies, and also that omicron seems to be spreading first among the younger population. But these estimates put omicron between 40-70% less severe (in terms of hospitalization) relative to delta. So maybe a little less severe than original, maybe a bit more. 0: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBB9yZNJuz5j8hLdP/omicron-post-9 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBB9yZNJuz5j8hLdP/omicron-po...

verdverm 5y ago

How many people take the flu shot? It's about volume and choice. Most likely a covid element will be added to the annual flu shot, or covid trends towards the common cold and we stop worrying so much

HarryHirsch 5y ago
The CDC actually has numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-dashboard.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-das... - it's about 50 % of adults and 50 % of children. So, uptake is roughly the same order of magnitude as the COVID vaccine. The logistics aren't dismal. BTW, there's no evolutionary pressure for COVID to become like the common cold, let's not perpetuate that meme.
- detaro 5y ago
  And you think these statistics cleanly extrapolate over the entire globe? Especially if you talk about the mRNA vaccines which are a bit tricky regarding storage conditions?
  - HarryHirsch 5y ago
    I am saying that the US (and Europe, and Australia/NZ, and China, and India, probably Brazil, Argentina and Chile as well) could, if they wanted. The more interesting question is why the AZ guy says we can't, and I have no idea why.
    - detaro 5y ago
      So that leaves 2-3 billion people that can't? Seems like a pretty could argument for why we can't vaccinate the planet every 6 months.
- verdverm 5y ago
  Coronavirus is one of the main viruses which cause the common cold, Covid is a coronavirus, Covid has been decreasing in severity with each new major variety. Let's not assume that the Covid will not follow the normal evolutionary trajectory of viruses, ie stop the fear porn and labelling things memes to justify dismissal of valid possibilities
  - rsfern 5y ago
    > Covid has been decreasing in severity with each new major variety. That’s not accurate, delta was a marked increase in severity. Omicron is reduced in severity relative to delta, but it’s probably on par with the original strain once prior immunity is accounted for.
    - yehosef 5y ago
      sources? I'm under the impression that Omicron is less severe than original strains.
      - rsfern 5y ago
        This post [0] summarizes the early research on omicron hospitalization risk. The preprints linked are now like 2 weeks old, so probably there is better data available, but I haven’t come across any analysis yet. I’ve been reading that ICU utilization is markedly lower with omicron, but I haven’t seen any statistical analysis yet decoupling prior immunity from the intrinsic virulence of omicron. Still points toward lower severity in general. Keep in mind the uncertainty factor is high on these studies, and also that omicron seems to be spreading first among the younger population. But these estimates put omicron between 40-70% less severe (in terms of hospitalization) relative to delta. So maybe a little less severe than original, maybe a bit more. 0: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBB9yZNJuz5j8hLdP/omicron-post-9 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBB9yZNJuz5j8hLdP/omicron-po...