3 ms·

Where is the scientific proof that this isolated weather event is climate change? Just like you cannot claim that one day of bad weather refutes global warming

Where is the scientific proof that this isolated weather event is climate change? Just like you cannot claim that one day of bad weather refutes global warming you also cannot claim that an isolated event is climate change. It takes time to prove that. Getting tired of everyone spouting off about climate change every time bad weather occurs. It's just as anti-science as denial.

badthingfactory 5y ago
I want to have this comment tattooed on my forehead.
acdha 5y ago
This is a common argument encouraged by the fossil fuel industry but it's not that simple. Climate science operates on a longer time scale so there isn't a single “We did it – Exxon, et al.” note to find but what you can talk about are the probabilities shifting (100 year floods become 20 year floods, etc.) and that tends to happen after most major events. For example, two noteworthy weather events this summer: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/pacific-northwest-heatwave-virtually-impossible-without-climate-change/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/pacific-northwest-he... https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/europes-july-floods-so-rare-and-extreme-theyre-hard-to-study/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/europes-july-floods-... In this case, what I'd look at is whether this event is in line with what the climate scientists have been saying for decades, namely that we'd see more volatility and extreme weather events. This is especially compatible with predictions for the mid-Atlantic region which have called for more big snow events despite generally less snow on average. No, it's not definitive enough that you could use it in a criminal case but it tells anyone that cares to expect higher insurance rates, taxes, etc.
- heartbeats 5y ago
  You guys are talking past each other. It's (mildly) dishonest to point at any one event and say "this is global warming". It's entirely accurate to point at a single event and say "if it weren't for global warming, there would be a 1% this happened, but with global warming, it's a 10% chance". It's like the Swiss cheese theory of accidents: accidents don't happen because one guy wasn't paying attention, they happen because one guy wasn't paying attention AND because the guy who was supposed to supervise him was off AND because the manager hadn't thought to call someone else in AND because the system designers forgot to add a rule for this AND the regulators because they forgot to require ... There's a fine line to thread here. On one side, you're lying if you say that global warming was the sole, isolated cause of this. On the other side, you're criminally irresponsible if you forget to mention the fact global warming certainly was an important contributory cause.
dotancohen 5y ago
> Where is the scientific proof that this isolated weather event is climate change? There is no evidence that this event is climate change. However, this is not an isolated event. Do you not remember Texas' snowstorm last year? These "freak, isolated" events are becoming more and more frequent. That is climate change.
- CountDrewku 5y ago
  Why are you comparing Texas weather to Virginia?

badthingfactory 5y ago

I want to have this comment tattooed on my forehead.

acdha 5y ago

This is a common argument encouraged by the fossil fuel industry but it's not that simple. Climate science operates on a longer time scale so there isn't a single “We did it – Exxon, et al.” note to find but what you can talk about are the probabilities shifting (100 year floods become 20 year floods, etc.) and that tends to happen after most major events. For example, two noteworthy weather events this summer: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/pacific-northwest-heatwave-virtually-impossible-without-climate-change/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/pacific-northwest-he... https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/europes-july-floods-so-rare-and-extreme-theyre-hard-to-study/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/europes-july-floods-... In this case, what I'd look at is whether this event is in line with what the climate scientists have been saying for decades, namely that we'd see more volatility and extreme weather events. This is especially compatible with predictions for the mid-Atlantic region which have called for more big snow events despite generally less snow on average. No, it's not definitive enough that you could use it in a criminal case but it tells anyone that cares to expect higher insurance rates, taxes, etc.

heartbeats 5y ago
You guys are talking past each other. It's (mildly) dishonest to point at any one event and say "this is global warming". It's entirely accurate to point at a single event and say "if it weren't for global warming, there would be a 1% this happened, but with global warming, it's a 10% chance". It's like the Swiss cheese theory of accidents: accidents don't happen because one guy wasn't paying attention, they happen because one guy wasn't paying attention AND because the guy who was supposed to supervise him was off AND because the manager hadn't thought to call someone else in AND because the system designers forgot to add a rule for this AND the regulators because they forgot to require ... There's a fine line to thread here. On one side, you're lying if you say that global warming was the sole, isolated cause of this. On the other side, you're criminally irresponsible if you forget to mention the fact global warming certainly was an important contributory cause.

dotancohen 5y ago

> Where is the scientific proof that this isolated weather event is climate change? There is no evidence that this event is climate change. However, this is not an isolated event. Do you not remember Texas' snowstorm last year? These "freak, isolated" events are becoming more and more frequent. That is climate change.

CountDrewku 5y ago
Why are you comparing Texas weather to Virginia?