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I think a key distinction is whether we are talking about the science or business of search. The science of search is AI-Hard -- good luck with that. I think i

I think a key distinction is whether we are talking about the science or business of search. The science of search is AI-Hard -- good luck with that. I think it is reasonable to claim that the business of search is 90% solved. To me this means that Google has reasonable solutions in place for what they see as 90% of the search market (by revenue/profitability/etc) in the medium term. They still have plenty of things to improve upon, but what is the likelihood of another Google (in terms of growth, dominance) coming out of search?

colinplamondon 18y ago
Totally. Google has it locked up as far as profitability goes but the user experience has a long ways to go. Until I can spawn off a search to find the cheapest VPS host, returned with a spec sheet of every offering alongside speed tests of five sites hosted on each, we're not even in the ballpark. Search should be able to solve problems all the way through, not just offer possible resources that may or may not help in your hunt for a solution. Which is, as you say, AI-hard/a mindbogglingly batshit crazy undertaking. Which, in turn, means that someone will eventually succeed and make a lot of money doing so.
akkartik 18y ago
I too was thinking about what 'X is solved' means: http://scrapbook.akkartik.name/post/49196712 http://scrapbook.akkartik.name/post/49196712 In this context, when google says search is 90% solved, they mean: a) Any enhancements we or our competitors can make are unlikely to impact more than 10% of the market. b) Any enhancements that would impact more than 10% of the market are too hard to implement right now. I'm not sure I agree with them, especially since I just figured out what they mean!
netcan 18y ago
I agree. An analogy could be the motor vehicle business. 90% solved by the 50s or 60 or 80s or whatever you place it at. But obviously cars still get better with time.

colinplamondon 18y ago

Totally. Google has it locked up as far as profitability goes but the user experience has a long ways to go. Until I can spawn off a search to find the cheapest VPS host, returned with a spec sheet of every offering alongside speed tests of five sites hosted on each, we're not even in the ballpark. Search should be able to solve problems all the way through, not just offer possible resources that may or may not help in your hunt for a solution. Which is, as you say, AI-hard/a mindbogglingly batshit crazy undertaking. Which, in turn, means that someone will eventually succeed and make a lot of money doing so.

akkartik 18y ago

I too was thinking about what 'X is solved' means: http://scrapbook.akkartik.name/post/49196712 http://scrapbook.akkartik.name/post/49196712 In this context, when google says search is 90% solved, they mean: a) Any enhancements we or our competitors can make are unlikely to impact more than 10% of the market. b) Any enhancements that would impact more than 10% of the market are too hard to implement right now. I'm not sure I agree with them, especially since I just figured out what they mean!

netcan 18y ago

I agree. An analogy could be the motor vehicle business. 90% solved by the 50s or 60 or 80s or whatever you place it at. But obviously cars still get better with time.