First detection is an indicator of that, when it was first detected, not a guarantee that it was first there. Only a very small fraction of RT-PCR positive samp

First detection is an indicator of that, when it was first detected, not a guarantee that it was first there. Only a very small fraction of RT-PCR positive samples are sent for sequencing under normal conditions. > Omicron COVID was in Italy as early as 2021-10-13 – 7 weeks before alarm from South Africa. 7 weeks before the alarm, but only 10 days before in retrospective sampling, and even less in other places in Africa. Saying it appeared in Italy but somehow it spread in Southern Africa first goes against normal epidemiological dynamics, especially given how contagious Omicron is. The chances are it started where the first cluster is detected, not where the first retrospective case is detected, because the possibility of it escaping in Italy, flying to SA, and somehow staying dormant in Italy while giving SA a head-start is extremely unlikely.