3 ms·
Yes, this is true. But it's also somewhat narrow. Consider this: days after the successful sequencing of Omicron, similar cases were reported in dozens of coun
by medimikka 5y ago
Yes, this is true. But it's also somewhat narrow.
Consider this: days after the successful sequencing of Omicron, similar cases were reported in dozens of countries, having arrived there just before or just after the announcement. We know, that it's "just before," because references are being kept and re-analyzed in those cases, and none of the countries with the resources for genomic surveillance has any data on earlier strains in the phylogenic tree.
It is simply very unlikely (not impossible, but if you're in London and hear hoof beats, it's probably a horse, not a zebra), that Omicron could have developed over 33 N and a superset of S mutations without ever popping up in any surveillance. South Africa, especially, is a key surveillance player. They're often much more granular than even European key players like the UK, Germany, or France.
A strain with this level of infectivity doesn't linger in one hospital. From the looks of the genome, that part (infectivity) would have developed before immune evasion. Having a highly infective strain evolve would ring alarm bells in labs the world around.
I guess it's pretty non debatable that Omicron started its World Dominance Tour in October or November 2021. To get there, it had to undergo a massive sequence of events making it as far removed from α.7 as it is. So we can state, with some certainty, that it evolved in isolation and broke free shortly before being discovered.
If we now consider the possible origins, wild zoonotic, single origin immune compromised, or accidental leak from research, the latter doesn't sound so improbable anymore. Again, horse, not zebra.
- kurthr 5y agoBut, the point is it was growling so fast you wouldn't expect it to show up in other places until the "knee" of the exponential showed up there as well. SA being just a couple of weeks ahead is a lifetime for Omicron.
- medimikka 5y ago100% agreed. Again, this is a possibility, not a certainty. But I'd be loath to dismiss it, just as I am not willing to dismiss a reservoir origin. In the end, the author does make a good point: we need mandatory disclosures of GoF research and a general ban on GoF financing of labs who aren't working in full disclosure mode. Ideally, we should not have this discussion because the GoF leak is impossible. Sadly, as secretive as this research is, as much money as we funnel into labs in China and Russia, and as reluctant as oversight authorities (such as the WHO) are to even consider leaks, the best response would be a general ban on GoF and GoF financing.
- Jedd 5y agoThere is a belief that Omicron originated in South Africa, but some growing evidence that it was present elsewhere earlier, but only either detected or first identified early on in South Africa. This is the first link in a search for same: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/omicron-variant-covid-in-europe-netherlands-before-alert-raised/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/omicron-variant-covid-in-europe... Either way, it may be wrong to assume SA is point of origin, so any follow-on assumptions may be comparably flawed.