4 ms·

I believe it's important to separate China and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). I don't doubt that the Hong Kong protests were a major problem for the CCP an

by bArray 5y ago

I believe it's important to separate China and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). I don't doubt that the Hong Kong protests were a major problem for the CCP and that COVID allowed them to implement a series of restrictions and laws to stop protests. I also don't doubt the very real possibility of a lab leak in Wuhan (in fact, given how the CCP have responded, I find it very likely). What I do doubt is that this virus was released to combat the Hong Kong protests. If it was on purpose, it was a huge self-inflicted wound, as the CCP's inability to contain the virus has made them look weak internally and externally. It's hugely crippled their own economic growth which was set to overtake the US, which has now been set back at least 5-10 years based on projections (if they are to be believed). If I were an evil regime, I would probably fake terroristic plots from the protestors and then respond to them heavily. There were plenty of other options available too, such as "starving out" the protestors (a tactic I believe they employed). What's more likely is that the CCP are very good at utilizing the current situation to serve their own means. They are surprisingly bad at it though and seem to completely misunderstand how they are perceived on the world stage.

jazzyjackson 5y ago
To participate in this intriguing line of inquiry, It may be a case of aligned incentives. A new virus occurs (even CCP does not know whether it is lab-leaked), and it is allowed to exist for some time (doctors arrested for spreading rumors). Definitely prefer incompetence to malice here, but maybe a decision was made to "sit back and assess" while the problem grew more serious. Faking terroristic plots and blaming protesters is old hat, and the outcome of cracking down on the free territories while you still have the #2 Navy in the world are predictable. Hong Kong is not alone in desiring independence, and Beijing is not willing to lose face. A re-run of Tienanmen Square was starting to look inevitable. What if instead of that well-trod path of war, they chose to boost the poll numbers by allowing a crisis to occur and saving the day? The cost of an economic slow down, well it's a risky calculus, but if the pandemic becomes global, they will not be left that far behind the competition. In fact, a totalitarian regime may be better-able to enforce health mandates and become productive again sooner. What's more, USA was also dealing with a kind of dueling rebellion between BLM and Trump-Forever types. Perhaps the two agreed that the world needed a cooling-off. /tin-foil
- bArray 5y ago
  > /tin-foil Indeed, we will likely never really know what the truth is here - even if the CCP dissolved tomorrow I imagine it would be years upon years before we start seeing anything emerge. A bit like the USSR. > Definitely prefer incompetence to malice here, but maybe a decision was made to "sit back and assess" while the problem grew more serious. I imagine that initially the CCP leadership was making decisions based on bad data. I.e. the classic "we have so much grain comrade we have to throw it away!", hence why the local government leadership in Wuhan were purged. > Faking terroristic plots and blaming protesters is old hat [..] I would say it's 'tried and tested'. > A re-run of Tienanmen Square was starting to look inevitable. I wouldn't yet rule it out. These protestors never vanished, the feeling of the people appears to still be strong (although nobody wants to be the nail that sticks out). > What if instead of that well-trod path of war, they chose to boost the poll numbers by allowing a crisis to occur and saving the day? How would that have looked like? I imagine it would have been achieved by keeping Hong Kong under zero lockdown to the point of collapse, and then rushing in with supplies, etc. Instead they were pretty quick to lockdown. > In fact, a totalitarian regime may be better-able to enforce health mandates and become productive again sooner. Not so long ago, their "5 year plan" entailed global medicine dominance, which you may argue they achieved during the pandemic. Pretty much all PPE was coming out of China. I think they made a mistake in restricting the export of PPE as other Countries suddenly saw them as a supply risk and begun to decentralise. > What's more, USA was also dealing with a kind of dueling rebellion between BLM and Trump-Forever types. Perhaps the two agreed that the world needed a cooling-off. I doubt that. The CCP are very interested in fuelling the political divides in the US. You get CCP officials Tweeting (despite Twitter being banned in China) stuff like "I can't breath". I can't of course rule out that this was on purpose, but I think even the smartest of analysts couldn't possibly predict how this all would have played out. It was a massive gamble. I imagine the only sort of Country willing to take such a gamble is one with nothing to lose. If China's property market bubbles is really that bad (and they know it), maybe I would take it more seriously.
  - jazzyjackson 5y ago
    Thanks for joining me under this aluminum tent > > What if instead of that well-trod path of war, they chose to boost the poll numbers by allowing a crisis to occur and saving the day? By this I meant to imply that, as opposed to being faced with rebellion, the government could allow (if not cause) the pandemic to take hold and then show competence vis-a-vis building hospitals and distributing vaccines. By doing a better job at it than democracies, the CCP could buy some praise from the public, but I'm unable to speculate whether the average Chinese citizen feels their government was heroic or not. Agreed CCP is unlikely to co-operate with USA, but maybe we had the same idea, that division in the US population was a Good Thing, ie, what was that quote, maybe it was Martin Luther King Jr, that as long as poor white and poor black people are kept fighting, they won't notice that they're both being taken advantage of by the rich? That still goes on, but it is Red vs Blue as well, and as long as we keep voting our more radical representatives in, and being angry with the 'other side', the less likely we are to unite and overthrow the corrupt show of two-party politics.
ei8htyfi5e 5y ago
Should other countries distinguish between the USA and the American government? That’s something I don’t see.
- bArray 5y ago
  > Should other countries distinguish between the USA and the American government? That’s something I don’t see. I think it's important when you are discussing some actions taken by a minority leadership - an unelected leadership at that. If Biden did something bad on behalf of the US, I would be tempted to say "Biden did X" rather than "America did X", especially if potentially speaking to an American. I also think in terms of geopolitics, it's important to criticise the Chinese government rather than the Chinese people - especially with increasing nationalisation ongoing in China.
- kelnos 5y ago
  Yes and no? In theory, the American government is "for the people, by the people", a feature not at all shared by the Chinese government. So actions taken by the American government should be the will of at least a majority of Americans. (Of course, the reality is a bit different; the American government is run by people largely in the pockets of special-interest groups and lobbyists. But we'd like to think democracy works as well as we'd like...)
- throway453sde 5y ago
  In USA at least for now nobody can claim leader for life like the CCP has done so. That a huge diff.

by bArray 5y ago

jazzyjackson 5y ago

To participate in this intriguing line of inquiry, It may be a case of aligned incentives. A new virus occurs (even CCP does not know whether it is lab-leaked), and it is allowed to exist for some time (doctors arrested for spreading rumors). Definitely prefer incompetence to malice here, but maybe a decision was made to "sit back and assess" while the problem grew more serious. Faking terroristic plots and blaming protesters is old hat, and the outcome of cracking down on the free territories while you still have the #2 Navy in the world are predictable. Hong Kong is not alone in desiring independence, and Beijing is not willing to lose face. A re-run of Tienanmen Square was starting to look inevitable. What if instead of that well-trod path of war, they chose to boost the poll numbers by allowing a crisis to occur and saving the day? The cost of an economic slow down, well it's a risky calculus, but if the pandemic becomes global, they will not be left that far behind the competition. In fact, a totalitarian regime may be better-able to enforce health mandates and become productive again sooner. What's more, USA was also dealing with a kind of dueling rebellion between BLM and Trump-Forever types. Perhaps the two agreed that the world needed a cooling-off. /tin-foil

bArray 5y ago
> /tin-foil Indeed, we will likely never really know what the truth is here - even if the CCP dissolved tomorrow I imagine it would be years upon years before we start seeing anything emerge. A bit like the USSR. > Definitely prefer incompetence to malice here, but maybe a decision was made to "sit back and assess" while the problem grew more serious. I imagine that initially the CCP leadership was making decisions based on bad data. I.e. the classic "we have so much grain comrade we have to throw it away!", hence why the local government leadership in Wuhan were purged. > Faking terroristic plots and blaming protesters is old hat [..] I would say it's 'tried and tested'. > A re-run of Tienanmen Square was starting to look inevitable. I wouldn't yet rule it out. These protestors never vanished, the feeling of the people appears to still be strong (although nobody wants to be the nail that sticks out). > What if instead of that well-trod path of war, they chose to boost the poll numbers by allowing a crisis to occur and saving the day? How would that have looked like? I imagine it would have been achieved by keeping Hong Kong under zero lockdown to the point of collapse, and then rushing in with supplies, etc. Instead they were pretty quick to lockdown. > In fact, a totalitarian regime may be better-able to enforce health mandates and become productive again sooner. Not so long ago, their "5 year plan" entailed global medicine dominance, which you may argue they achieved during the pandemic. Pretty much all PPE was coming out of China. I think they made a mistake in restricting the export of PPE as other Countries suddenly saw them as a supply risk and begun to decentralise. > What's more, USA was also dealing with a kind of dueling rebellion between BLM and Trump-Forever types. Perhaps the two agreed that the world needed a cooling-off. I doubt that. The CCP are very interested in fuelling the political divides in the US. You get CCP officials Tweeting (despite Twitter being banned in China) stuff like "I can't breath". I can't of course rule out that this was on purpose, but I think even the smartest of analysts couldn't possibly predict how this all would have played out. It was a massive gamble. I imagine the only sort of Country willing to take such a gamble is one with nothing to lose. If China's property market bubbles is really that bad (and they know it), maybe I would take it more seriously.
- jazzyjackson 5y ago
  Thanks for joining me under this aluminum tent > > What if instead of that well-trod path of war, they chose to boost the poll numbers by allowing a crisis to occur and saving the day? By this I meant to imply that, as opposed to being faced with rebellion, the government could allow (if not cause) the pandemic to take hold and then show competence vis-a-vis building hospitals and distributing vaccines. By doing a better job at it than democracies, the CCP could buy some praise from the public, but I'm unable to speculate whether the average Chinese citizen feels their government was heroic or not. Agreed CCP is unlikely to co-operate with USA, but maybe we had the same idea, that division in the US population was a Good Thing, ie, what was that quote, maybe it was Martin Luther King Jr, that as long as poor white and poor black people are kept fighting, they won't notice that they're both being taken advantage of by the rich? That still goes on, but it is Red vs Blue as well, and as long as we keep voting our more radical representatives in, and being angry with the 'other side', the less likely we are to unite and overthrow the corrupt show of two-party politics.

ei8htyfi5e 5y ago

Should other countries distinguish between the USA and the American government? That’s something I don’t see.

bArray 5y ago
> Should other countries distinguish between the USA and the American government? That’s something I don’t see. I think it's important when you are discussing some actions taken by a minority leadership - an unelected leadership at that. If Biden did something bad on behalf of the US, I would be tempted to say "Biden did X" rather than "America did X", especially if potentially speaking to an American. I also think in terms of geopolitics, it's important to criticise the Chinese government rather than the Chinese people - especially with increasing nationalisation ongoing in China.
kelnos 5y ago
Yes and no? In theory, the American government is "for the people, by the people", a feature not at all shared by the Chinese government. So actions taken by the American government should be the will of at least a majority of Americans. (Of course, the reality is a bit different; the American government is run by people largely in the pockets of special-interest groups and lobbyists. But we'd like to think democracy works as well as we'd like...)
throway453sde 5y ago
In USA at least for now nobody can claim leader for life like the CCP has done so. That a huge diff.