3 ms·
There is absolutely no capacity to replace ASML on any sort of short timeframe. EUV step and scan systems are roughly the size of a bus, fractal system complex
by tux3 5y ago
There is absolutely no capacity to replace ASML on any sort of short timeframe.
EUV step and scan systems are roughly the size of a bus, fractal system complexity and sophistication that rivals the LHC, and mirrors with a roughness two orders of magnitude finer than what the JWST space telescope has to work with (namely .2nm compared to 20nm).
Please do not underestimate the difficulty of manufacturing EUV systems, ASML only manages to build a few dozen a year for a reason :)
- colechristensen 5y agoIf the DoD got scared and threw a few billion at a competition to build this tech locally, I’m betting it could be done relatively quickly, but then what is and is not “quick” Just call the three or four companies you think would be the closest and tell them they’ll be competing to build the capacity paid for by the defense department.
- quickthrowman 5y agoI don’t think you understand, ASML does not have any competitors at its level. They are alone on the bleeding edge of semiconductor tooling. If all it took was a few billion dollars, don’t you think someone would have already funded it and started a profitable company?
- tux3 5y agoIf you don't have the right people and the right environment, throwing more money at a problem can be enormously inefficient, it doesn't solve every problem. There are many example of big government funded projects that crumble under their own weight, despite being inundated with cash. Look at NASA's SLS, the DoD's trillion dollar plane projects, big government software projects in general. For truly large, complex systems, it's not enough to throw more money at the problem. You need an organization that can manage the complexity in the first place, otherwise you can spend as many years and trillions as you want with little to show for it.
- barkingcat 5y agoto be honest, high level semiconductor lithography would be similar to manhattan project complexity. It could be done, but there's a reason nobody but ASML makes these.
- jazzyjackson 5y agoWhat if everyone who knows how already works for ASML? Then starting up a competing corporation and sniping talent would actually slow down recovery. I'm sure the cost-benefit-analysis has already been done.
- ClumsyPilot 5y agoYou know, expertise does not grow on trees. It was not an accident the manhattan project and moon landings were led by specialists from Germany. You can't suddenly create experts by throwing money at random business people.
- oneplane 5y agoPerhaps you should read the mythical man-month. Throwing resources at the problem doesn't suddenly make it go away in knowledge cases.