6 ms·

> That's not to say that is impossible, but without good examples we can all say a bunch of stuff and it won't mean anything.

colechristensen 5y ago
Ok, in WWII a big part of Allied victory was the US mobilizing a vertically integrated industrial base to build war materiel. You can look at the history of the Defense Production Act (1950) to see it in action several times building up local industries with lots of cheap money.
- ianai 5y ago
  Right, if the US wanted it done it could be done.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - lotsofpulp 5y ago
    Is there a reason to assume the ability to ramp up in WW2 has any bearing on the ability to ramp up an operation like ASML today? You cannot just throw any bodies at a problem like creating ASML. You have to throw very specific bodies with each one having at least a decade or more of very specific expertise (it seems like, based on the comments and articles I have read). That is just ASML, not even getting into the deep expertise TSMC must need to execute, or even Apple in designing. Knowledge itself has expanded tremendously since WW2 such that to be top of the field in WW2 required much less time than to be top of the field today.
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      Manhattan Project? That wasn't a "just throw bodies at it" either...
      - PKop 5y ago
        Do we have the same quality of human resources we had then?
      - lotsofpulp 5y ago
        I do not know for sure, but I suspect blowing things up might be less difficult than creating and maintaining all the stable reactions needed to create a long lasting microchip. Nevertheless, even the Manhattan project took 5 or 6 years.
      - dgfitz 5y ago
        Are you sure? They employed well over 100k people I thought, and maybe a handful of those people actually knew the full scope of the project.
      - Jensson 5y ago
        Soviet also managed that, large state sanctioned projects can accomplish some feats but not others. Soviet did nuclear, soviet went to space, so those are examples of what states can do. However soviet tried to make good computers, but they failed to do so, so for all we know large state sanctioned efforts cannot solve this problem, so it looks like you need the agility of a free private sector to get through it.
      - ianai 5y ago
        For numbers of grads in engineering I found this (2017/2018 data, please forgive poor copy/paste from pdf ): https://ira.asee.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2018-Engineering-by-Numbers-Engineering-Statistics-UPDATED-15-July-2019.pdf https://ira.asee.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2018-Enginee... “”” bachElor’s EnrollmEnt and dEgrEEs Enrollment in undergraduate engineering programs increased this year continuing a decade long trend to 622,502 full-time students in 2018. Degrees awarded increased to 131,937 for reporting institutions (136, 233 including non- reporting institutions). The three engineering disciplines producing the most degrees in 2018 were, as in 2017, mechanical engineering, with 31,936 degrees, computer science (inside engineering) with 19,082 degrees and electrical engineering with 13,767. mastEr’s EnrollmEnt and dEgrEEs There was an increase in 2018 in enrollment in master’s engineering programs with a total of 93,559 students enrolled, a 6,687 student increase over 2017. The number of master’s degrees awarded increased to 66,340‬ for 2018. The three disciplines representing 39% of all engineering master’s graduates are computer science (inside engineering), with 10,946 graduates, mechanical engineering with 8,160 graduates and electrical engineering with 7,048 graduates. doctoral EnrollmEnt and dEgrEEs In 2018 there were 12,156 doctorates awarded 78,715 full-time students enrolled in doctoral programs. The 5 disciplines with a combined total of 60% of the doctoral graduates in 2018 are mechanical, electrical/computer engineering, electrical engineering, chemical engineering and computer science (inside engineering “””
  - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
    Do you have any evidence of required expertiese existing in US, youbare only offering tautologies so far

colechristensen 5y ago

Ok, in WWII a big part of Allied victory was the US mobilizing a vertically integrated industrial base to build war materiel. You can look at the history of the Defense Production Act (1950) to see it in action several times building up local industries with lots of cheap money.

ianai 5y ago
Right, if the US wanted it done it could be done.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- lotsofpulp 5y ago
  Is there a reason to assume the ability to ramp up in WW2 has any bearing on the ability to ramp up an operation like ASML today? You cannot just throw any bodies at a problem like creating ASML. You have to throw very specific bodies with each one having at least a decade or more of very specific expertise (it seems like, based on the comments and articles I have read). That is just ASML, not even getting into the deep expertise TSMC must need to execute, or even Apple in designing. Knowledge itself has expanded tremendously since WW2 such that to be top of the field in WW2 required much less time than to be top of the field today.
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    Manhattan Project? That wasn't a "just throw bodies at it" either...
    - PKop 5y ago
      Do we have the same quality of human resources we had then?
    - lotsofpulp 5y ago
      I do not know for sure, but I suspect blowing things up might be less difficult than creating and maintaining all the stable reactions needed to create a long lasting microchip. Nevertheless, even the Manhattan project took 5 or 6 years.
    - dgfitz 5y ago
      Are you sure? They employed well over 100k people I thought, and maybe a handful of those people actually knew the full scope of the project.
    - Jensson 5y ago
      Soviet also managed that, large state sanctioned projects can accomplish some feats but not others. Soviet did nuclear, soviet went to space, so those are examples of what states can do. However soviet tried to make good computers, but they failed to do so, so for all we know large state sanctioned efforts cannot solve this problem, so it looks like you need the agility of a free private sector to get through it.
    - ianai 5y ago
      For numbers of grads in engineering I found this (2017/2018 data, please forgive poor copy/paste from pdf ): https://ira.asee.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2018-Engineering-by-Numbers-Engineering-Statistics-UPDATED-15-July-2019.pdf https://ira.asee.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2018-Enginee... “”” bachElor’s EnrollmEnt and dEgrEEs Enrollment in undergraduate engineering programs increased this year continuing a decade long trend to 622,502 full-time students in 2018. Degrees awarded increased to 131,937 for reporting institutions (136, 233 including non- reporting institutions). The three engineering disciplines producing the most degrees in 2018 were, as in 2017, mechanical engineering, with 31,936 degrees, computer science (inside engineering) with 19,082 degrees and electrical engineering with 13,767. mastEr’s EnrollmEnt and dEgrEEs There was an increase in 2018 in enrollment in master’s engineering programs with a total of 93,559 students enrolled, a 6,687 student increase over 2017. The number of master’s degrees awarded increased to 66,340‬ for 2018. The three disciplines representing 39% of all engineering master’s graduates are computer science (inside engineering), with 10,946 graduates, mechanical engineering with 8,160 graduates and electrical engineering with 7,048 graduates. doctoral EnrollmEnt and dEgrEEs In 2018 there were 12,156 doctorates awarded 78,715 full-time students enrolled in doctoral programs. The 5 disciplines with a combined total of 60% of the doctoral graduates in 2018 are mechanical, electrical/computer engineering, electrical engineering, chemical engineering and computer science (inside engineering “””
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  Do you have any evidence of required expertiese existing in US, youbare only offering tautologies so far