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> this wasn't true until Omicron You don’t understand what people mean when they say that. The premise of everyone getting covid is based on the continued muta
by qeternity 5y ago
> this wasn't true until Omicron
You don’t understand what people mean when they say that. The premise of everyone getting covid is based on the continued mutation and evolutionary pressure to more contagious and less deadly variants. The emergence of an Omicron-like variant is exactly what people meant when they said “everyone will get covid”.
- nojokes 5y agoNo, they did not. What they meant was that already Delta is so contagious that only very limited amount of people can avoid it - r0 ~ 6-8 will make sure of it that ~85-90% of people must be immune to stop its spread. Seasonal flu has r0 = 1.3. This means that it does not affect 75% of the population. The formula is p = 1 - (1/r0) to find out at what level of immunity the disease will die out. Original Sars2 had r0 = 3, this meant that about 60% immunity level is needed. This is from where to original need of 70% of vaccinated comes from - vaccines do not give 100% immunity so you have to account for that. Delta messed everything up. With p=85% and vaccine efficiency of 70% (because nobody, except Israelis dared to think about boosters first), you need more than 100% vaccinated - everyone gets is either vaccinated and lucky or vaccinated/unvaccinated and will get infected.
- jjeaff 5y agoThe fact is, that the vast majority of people who refuse to get the vaccine, are also the same people not taking enough precautions to avoid contracting COVID. If you want the absolute safest option, then don't get the vaccine and take extreme precautions to avoid catching COVID. But that is unrealistic for the vast majority.