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"And the second is that you almost certainly will get COVID eventually" this wasn't true until Omicron. Social distancing, proper masking, and maintaining good

"And the second is that you almost certainly will get COVID eventually" this wasn't true until Omicron. Social distancing, proper masking, and maintaining good ventilation were all ways to dramatically lower your chances of getting any of the previous strains. And Omicron is so much milder it would be shocking if myocarditis rates remain higher than in vaccinations. "The spike protein in the vaccine does not replicate. In COVID, it obviously does." This is misleading. The spike protein is created similarly in both cases, both from RNA being introduced into the cells. "If I had to guess, I would say that anyone who gets myocarditis from the vaccine probably would have had a very bad time with COVID." This very much is a guess as we don't know the mechanism for what is causing myocarditis. My guess is that we'll find much lower levels of vaccine myocarditis in countries which aspirate injections, dramatically lowering the rate of inadvertent intravenous injections. And we'll find that the cause of SARS-COV-2 myocarditis differs greatly from vaccine induced myocarditis.

glial 5y ago
> Omicron is so much milder It's milder when measured by overall hospitalization rates (covering vaccinated + unvaccinated + past infection), but is there evidence that it is milder for unvaccinated individuals specifically? Genuine question, happy to learn.
- merpnderp 5y ago
  I don't know that we know that. But given the UK death rates I'm guessing we'll be happy. I don't know anyone still unvaccinated, but I certainly hope omicron is milder for the people are aren't.
- bsaul 5y ago
  unless omikron spread to vaccinated people preferably , or if vaccination rates increase a lot between delta and omikron, the fact that the increase in omikron cases doesn't produce an increase in hospital ICU prooves it's also not as lethal to non-vax
- rsfern 5y ago
  Solid data is still hard to come by, but preliminary analyses from the week of Dec 20 have omicron as moderately less virulent than Delta, and on par (+/- 10-20%) with the original strain. Good discussion of various pieces of the picture here: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/23/omicron-post-9/ https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/23/omicron-post-9/
qeternity 5y ago
> this wasn't true until Omicron You don’t understand what people mean when they say that. The premise of everyone getting covid is based on the continued mutation and evolutionary pressure to more contagious and less deadly variants. The emergence of an Omicron-like variant is exactly what people meant when they said “everyone will get covid”.
- nojokes 5y ago
  No, they did not. What they meant was that already Delta is so contagious that only very limited amount of people can avoid it - r0 ~ 6-8 will make sure of it that ~85-90% of people must be immune to stop its spread. Seasonal flu has r0 = 1.3. This means that it does not affect 75% of the population. The formula is p = 1 - (1/r0) to find out at what level of immunity the disease will die out. Original Sars2 had r0 = 3, this meant that about 60% immunity level is needed. This is from where to original need of 70% of vaccinated comes from - vaccines do not give 100% immunity so you have to account for that. Delta messed everything up. With p=85% and vaccine efficiency of 70% (because nobody, except Israelis dared to think about boosters first), you need more than 100% vaccinated - everyone gets is either vaccinated and lucky or vaccinated/unvaccinated and will get infected.
  - jjeaff 5y ago
    The fact is, that the vast majority of people who refuse to get the vaccine, are also the same people not taking enough precautions to avoid contracting COVID. If you want the absolute safest option, then don't get the vaccine and take extreme precautions to avoid catching COVID. But that is unrealistic for the vast majority.

glial 5y ago

> Omicron is so much milder It's milder when measured by overall hospitalization rates (covering vaccinated + unvaccinated + past infection), but is there evidence that it is milder for unvaccinated individuals specifically? Genuine question, happy to learn.

merpnderp 5y ago
I don't know that we know that. But given the UK death rates I'm guessing we'll be happy. I don't know anyone still unvaccinated, but I certainly hope omicron is milder for the people are aren't.
bsaul 5y ago
unless omikron spread to vaccinated people preferably , or if vaccination rates increase a lot between delta and omikron, the fact that the increase in omikron cases doesn't produce an increase in hospital ICU prooves it's also not as lethal to non-vax
rsfern 5y ago
Solid data is still hard to come by, but preliminary analyses from the week of Dec 20 have omicron as moderately less virulent than Delta, and on par (+/- 10-20%) with the original strain. Good discussion of various pieces of the picture here: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/23/omicron-post-9/ https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/23/omicron-post-9/

qeternity 5y ago

> this wasn't true until Omicron You don’t understand what people mean when they say that. The premise of everyone getting covid is based on the continued mutation and evolutionary pressure to more contagious and less deadly variants. The emergence of an Omicron-like variant is exactly what people meant when they said “everyone will get covid”.

nojokes 5y ago
No, they did not. What they meant was that already Delta is so contagious that only very limited amount of people can avoid it - r0 ~ 6-8 will make sure of it that ~85-90% of people must be immune to stop its spread. Seasonal flu has r0 = 1.3. This means that it does not affect 75% of the population. The formula is p = 1 - (1/r0) to find out at what level of immunity the disease will die out. Original Sars2 had r0 = 3, this meant that about 60% immunity level is needed. This is from where to original need of 70% of vaccinated comes from - vaccines do not give 100% immunity so you have to account for that. Delta messed everything up. With p=85% and vaccine efficiency of 70% (because nobody, except Israelis dared to think about boosters first), you need more than 100% vaccinated - everyone gets is either vaccinated and lucky or vaccinated/unvaccinated and will get infected.
- jjeaff 5y ago
  The fact is, that the vast majority of people who refuse to get the vaccine, are also the same people not taking enough precautions to avoid contracting COVID. If you want the absolute safest option, then don't get the vaccine and take extreme precautions to avoid catching COVID. But that is unrealistic for the vast majority.