4 ms·

Apple is my vote. It's very easy to be a tech professional who uses a lot of tech in my free time and never rely on, interact with, or even think about Apple pr

Apple is my vote. It's very easy to be a tech professional who uses a lot of tech in my free time and never rely on, interact with, or even think about Apple products beyond users that may be using them. Therefore, it's easy for me to imagine a world where Apple just doesn't exist, and not because some unknown competitor rises up. However, I don't think that is particularly likely.

zmmmmm 5y ago
I think you underestimate their ecosystem lockin for those who are bought in already. That alone will keep them going for decades unless antitrust intervenes. Apple's real vulnerability in my view is that most of their value arises from extraordinarily high margins which in turn are driven by perception / fashion. They run the risk that losing that fashion shine at any point will rapidly cause a catastrophic loss of marketshare. Staying perpetually in fashion with young people is notoriously difficult - their default is to orient away from whatever their parents did and do something else. It's very hard too look cool copying Mom and Dad.
- pphysch 5y ago
  > Apple's real vulnerability in my view is that most of their value arises from extraordinarily high margins which in turn are driven by perception / fashion. Well put. The iPhone is going on 15 years old. Once-hip iPhone users are becoming parents to children and teenagers that are getting their first devices. The iPhone will go the way of the Blackberry in the next 5-10 years and Apple will need to reinvent itself (again, without Jobs) in this time or see a rapid decline.
warner25 5y ago
This is an interesting point. Besides making a few $1 purchases of songs or podcasts with iTunes (which I haven't done since 2018), I've never been an Apple customer. It hasn't taken any special effort to avoid them, either. But I'm struck by two things in Apple's favor: (1) I keep hearing fantastic things about their new M1 processors and laptops, and it actually has me slightly interested in Apple for the first time in my life, so that's impressive. (2) Just the extreme loyalty among people who are Apple customers.
- pphysch 5y ago
  Both 1) and 2) are testaments to the effectiveness of Apple's marketing/propaganda, which has historically been their strength. Steve Jobs was a marketing genius. The M1 may be a nice processor, but do people actually need a nicer processor? Before the M1, were iPhone users really going "gee I really could use more cores"? Sure, faster tech is always better, but I'm of the position that the M1 craze is >95% marketing propaganda and <5% genuine "this is a qualitative and necessary improvement to my user experience". Apple enthusiasts definitely want to believe that Apple is constantly innovating and ahead of the game. And there are a lot of them, notably on HN.

zmmmmm 5y ago

I think you underestimate their ecosystem lockin for those who are bought in already. That alone will keep them going for decades unless antitrust intervenes. Apple's real vulnerability in my view is that most of their value arises from extraordinarily high margins which in turn are driven by perception / fashion. They run the risk that losing that fashion shine at any point will rapidly cause a catastrophic loss of marketshare. Staying perpetually in fashion with young people is notoriously difficult - their default is to orient away from whatever their parents did and do something else. It's very hard too look cool copying Mom and Dad.

pphysch 5y ago
> Apple's real vulnerability in my view is that most of their value arises from extraordinarily high margins which in turn are driven by perception / fashion. Well put. The iPhone is going on 15 years old. Once-hip iPhone users are becoming parents to children and teenagers that are getting their first devices. The iPhone will go the way of the Blackberry in the next 5-10 years and Apple will need to reinvent itself (again, without Jobs) in this time or see a rapid decline.

warner25 5y ago

This is an interesting point. Besides making a few $1 purchases of songs or podcasts with iTunes (which I haven't done since 2018), I've never been an Apple customer. It hasn't taken any special effort to avoid them, either. But I'm struck by two things in Apple's favor: (1) I keep hearing fantastic things about their new M1 processors and laptops, and it actually has me slightly interested in Apple for the first time in my life, so that's impressive. (2) Just the extreme loyalty among people who are Apple customers.

pphysch 5y ago
Both 1) and 2) are testaments to the effectiveness of Apple's marketing/propaganda, which has historically been their strength. Steve Jobs was a marketing genius. The M1 may be a nice processor, but do people actually need a nicer processor? Before the M1, were iPhone users really going "gee I really could use more cores"? Sure, faster tech is always better, but I'm of the position that the M1 craze is >95% marketing propaganda and <5% genuine "this is a qualitative and necessary improvement to my user experience". Apple enthusiasts definitely want to believe that Apple is constantly innovating and ahead of the game. And there are a lot of them, notably on HN.