3 ms·

My guess is Netflix, I think the others have much wider moats. No actual number crunching was involved in producing this guess.

freyr 5y ago
I agree regarding the moat, but I think Netflix could still do fairly well as one of N big players in the streaming space. On the other hand, I think we could see FB utterly collapse over the next decade. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking.
- scifi6546 5y ago
  I personally think it is wishful thinking. At this facebook is rich enough that even if facebook.com completely imploded they could pivot to another social media platform they own such as instagram, and it is hard to imagine facebook.com imploding completely as it is used across the globe and I can see that even if facebook fell in the english speaking world other regions would still use it.
- cinntaile 5y ago
  Both Reid Hastings and Marc Zuckerberg are very capable business leaders. It will be interesting to see in what direction Netflix decides to expand or if they will just stay in the movie and series business. I feel like they should have bought CrunchyRoll instead of Sony, that's a missed opportunity imo. But since they're trying some game experiments they might decide to buy some game developers? Or a big music streaming company, that would almost fit better with their business? Messenger, Whatsapp and Instagram are very sticky. I don't see them disappearing anytime soon. Facebook has a massive image problem though, so who knows how that affects their VR attempts?
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  > I think Netflix could still do fairly well as one of N big players in the streaming space. I disagree. I play for Netflix and Amazon Prime video (that was a cross-sell). I'm not playing for another. If everything is one one service, then I'll pay for it. That was the original promise of Netflix. But now everyone wants to play that game. Two services, maybe I'll pay. N services? Screw that, might as well go back to torrenting. And then, why keep Netflix? Paying for TV shows is _voluntary_. Consumers are willing to pay, but only up to a point. Jerk them around too much, and the consent goes away - not only will Netflix get only a slice of the pie, but the whole pie will be smaller.
zmmmmm 5y ago
I don't understand why Netflix is in FAANG at all other than because it makes the acronym work ... they are a single-purpose service with almost no ecosystem impact. They could disappear and 99.9% of people would shrug and switch to a closely equivalent service. Every other "FAANG" is deeply integrated into complex ecosystems with huge economic impact.

freyr 5y ago

I agree regarding the moat, but I think Netflix could still do fairly well as one of N big players in the streaming space. On the other hand, I think we could see FB utterly collapse over the next decade. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking.

scifi6546 5y ago
I personally think it is wishful thinking. At this facebook is rich enough that even if facebook.com completely imploded they could pivot to another social media platform they own such as instagram, and it is hard to imagine facebook.com imploding completely as it is used across the globe and I can see that even if facebook fell in the english speaking world other regions would still use it.
cinntaile 5y ago
Both Reid Hastings and Marc Zuckerberg are very capable business leaders. It will be interesting to see in what direction Netflix decides to expand or if they will just stay in the movie and series business. I feel like they should have bought CrunchyRoll instead of Sony, that's a missed opportunity imo. But since they're trying some game experiments they might decide to buy some game developers? Or a big music streaming company, that would almost fit better with their business? Messenger, Whatsapp and Instagram are very sticky. I don't see them disappearing anytime soon. Facebook has a massive image problem though, so who knows how that affects their VR attempts?
SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
> I think Netflix could still do fairly well as one of N big players in the streaming space. I disagree. I play for Netflix and Amazon Prime video (that was a cross-sell). I'm not playing for another. If everything is one one service, then I'll pay for it. That was the original promise of Netflix. But now everyone wants to play that game. Two services, maybe I'll pay. N services? Screw that, might as well go back to torrenting. And then, why keep Netflix? Paying for TV shows is _voluntary_. Consumers are willing to pay, but only up to a point. Jerk them around too much, and the consent goes away - not only will Netflix get only a slice of the pie, but the whole pie will be smaller.

zmmmmm 5y ago

I don't understand why Netflix is in FAANG at all other than because it makes the acronym work ... they are a single-purpose service with almost no ecosystem impact. They could disappear and 99.9% of people would shrug and switch to a closely equivalent service. Every other "FAANG" is deeply integrated into complex ecosystems with huge economic impact.