4 ms·
We have billions of people in the humankind. With a high probability, billion guesses every day will yield at least one or more correct guesses even if they are
by productceo 5y ago
We have billions of people in the humankind. With a high probability, billion guesses every day will yield at least one or more correct guesses even if they are completely random. This person was in a position to guess not randomly but based on some advance understanding of the world and the humankind, so we cannot consider this to be surprising.
What matters is not who predicts which future, but rather who creates which future.
- ozten 5y agoI agree with the bias you highlight, but I'm not sure it is that exaggerated in this example. Today 2 Billion people have a platform (social media). The sample size of "telco executives making futuristic predictions interviewed in a print newspapers" was probably in the tens or hundreds of instances during this period.