13 ms·

Myopericarditis rates in young men after Covid-19 vaccine second dose [pdf]

84 points by malchow 5y ago

dainiusse 5y ago
Interesting. However I don't like the fact of checking both mrna vaccines. It would be interesting to compare moderna vs pfizer
- jldl805 5y ago
  I'm just one lonely data point but I got really bad myocardia (didn't know what it was at the time but woke up three days after my second shot and it literally felt like my heart was going to explode out of my chest... or like I had a high pressure bag of camp fire smoke in my chest, it burned and hurt). I got Pfizer each time, was a 34 year old male at the time.
phonypc 5y ago
Would be nice to have some reasoning given for why I51.4 should be included. Not a physician, but it appears to indicate a pre-existing cardiac condition, in which case it seems reasonable to exclude those cases on the grounds of not being able to establish that the vaccine was the likely cause.
orangebeet 5y ago
About 7 days after the first mRNA shot, I got really bad chest pain. I went to see my doctor and my EKG was okay. It only got worse from there, and eventually I was sent to the hospital and diagnosed with pericarditis. The pericarditis wasn't registered as "caused by the vaccine", since it took three weeks before I finally got a hospital appointment, and by then it was too late to prove. I'm 31 years old and relatively fit and I've never had any issues until 7 days after the vaccine. So when this wasn't attributed to the vaccine, here in Denmark, what percentage of issues will be attributed to the vaccine in a country with a greater population density, like India? As a consequence of this, I find the "~23 in a million" get heart complications highly questionable.
- dham 5y ago
  I've seen 2 people on my Facebook feed have issues. One is pretty big in the skydiving community. He had a Moderna booster and it all went downhill. He's doing better now. He initially thought the vaccine was to blame but then it seemed that there were issues for a while but it kind of put him over the edge. Again all anecdotal.
  - UnFleshedOne 5y ago
    It would make sense that pre-existing heart issues would be worsened by vaccine that has heart complications. Similar to how covid itself is much more deadly with pre-existing comorbidities while being mostly harmless for healthy young people.
    - jjeaff 5y ago
      Imagine having preexisting heart conditions and getting COVID, which is known to have much higher rates of heart complications.
  - orangebeet 5y ago
    - gregoryl 5y ago
      Your language pushes pretty hard for a conclusion. Consider: A friend had no heart issues for 35 years, decided to take a new route to work, and dropped dead of a heart attack. Is it coincidental? Of course it is. Anecdotal / single point evidence is completely useless. The study gives you the actual numbers on how likely it's a coincidence or not.
      - aaplok 5y ago
        > The study gives you the actual numbers on how likely it's a coincidence or not. The study doesn't really do that. What it does is compare different methodologies for counting the number of incidences of (myo|peri)-carditis following the 2nd shot. They conclude that the methodology used officially gives lower numbers than other methodologies. Counting how likely a coincidence it is is something we can do reasonably well using standard null hypothesis testing: compare the number of incidences of pericarditis in a random sample against a sample of patients post-vaccine. But this is not something that the article does. The difficulty, discussed in the article, lies in deciding what counts as "post-vaccine".
dv_dt 5y ago
To add other info on relative outcomes: > During March 2020–January 2021, patients with COVID-19 had nearly 16 times the risk for myocarditis compared with patients who did not have COVID-19, and risk varied by sex and age. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm
- megous 5y ago
  And how exactly is this hospital visiting covid diagnosed demographic comparable to complications in a normal healthy people receiving vaccine against covid?
- 0-_-0 5y ago
  How about only young men, since that's what's the title is about?
  - dham 5y ago
    - phonypc 5y ago
      The numbers in that tweet are based on this (pre-print) paper which reports a higher rate than the CDC does, and doesn't give a figure for Moderna specifically, so doesn't really work as a source for that "known fact" if that was your intent. I don't see how body mass and aspiration can possibly explain the presentation of vaccine associated myocarditis we're seeing. i.e. increased incidence in pubescent boys and young men. They should tend towards lower body mass than older men, and the people administering vaccines don't aspirate in general, not just for some demographics. This demographic is just generally more susceptible to myocarditis from any cause.
      - dham 5y ago
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_df67JdhGB8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_df67JdhGB8
EnlightenedBro 5y ago
A good friend of mine told me that he developed shortness of breath and palpitations after his first shot, and had to spend 8 hours in the ER. While I do acknowledge that there is a lot of misinformation on the topic out there, it was really weird to see an actual real person you know suffer from a side effect of a shot. I started to think that things aren't as simple as they seem to be advertised...
- gitgrump 5y ago
  Those are also symptoms of a panic attack, which is not uncommon for some people who dislike needles. What did the ER learn about his condition?
- jjeaff 5y ago
  That sounds like it could be a panic attack. Perhaps panic due to all the fear mongering about the vaccine?
- bsaul 5y ago
  heard a story of a nurse vaccinating a 16 yo kids crying and not wanting the vaccine and dying in the minutes after the shot. It seems totally unbelievable, but the story was only n+2 (from someone knowing the nurse). Also said people in vaccine center had clear instructions not to mention anything happening there. All this seems totally paranoid, i know. But i've also found numerus videos of actual doctors mentionning huge numbers of blood disorders in their own patients following the injection, so...
- RedBeetDeadpool 5y ago
  Why are there two separate commenters saying that it was a panic attack? Is this the recommended explanation medical professionals should provide now when a patient has to spend 8 hours in ER, or is HN full medical experts in panic attacks? ---- > "You are experiencing a panic attack" > "I am experiencing a panic attack" > "These aren't the droids you're looking for" > "These aren't the droids I'm looking for"
  - RedBeetDeadpool 5y ago
commandlinefan 5y ago
What I can't seem to figure out (and the knee-jerk censorship of any discussion on the topic isn't helping...) is whether or not this is unusual, as vaccines go. Although I never thought much about it before, it seems like no vaccine could possibly be 100% safe, so, say the smallpox vaccine must produce occasional side effects. How does this vaccine compare with all the other ones? Smallpox will almost definitely kill you, so a small chance of a side effect is worth it. What is the real cost/benefit of getting this particular vaccine?
- jjeaff 5y ago
  I think the most important data point you should compare in this case is the rate of myopericarditis in young men who get COVID. It's somewhat irrelevant what the rate is in past vaccines. Two things seem pretty clear from the data. The first is that myocarditis rates are much higher in unvaccinated young men who get COVID than those who get the vaccine. And the second is that you almost certainly will get COVID eventually. One hypothesis is that the spike protein in the vaccine is what causes the myocarditis. If you are scared of that, then you should be really scared of how much more spike protein you are going to have in your body if you get COVID unvaccinated. The spike protein in the vaccine does not replicate. In COVID, it obviously does. If I had to guess, I would say that anyone who gets myocarditis from the vaccine probably would have had a very bad time with COVID.
  - commandlinefan 5y ago
    Interesting, thanks, I had not heard/seen that before.
  - merpnderp 5y ago
    "And the second is that you almost certainly will get COVID eventually" this wasn't true until Omicron. Social distancing, proper masking, and maintaining good ventilation were all ways to dramatically lower your chances of getting any of the previous strains. And Omicron is so much milder it would be shocking if myocarditis rates remain higher than in vaccinations. "The spike protein in the vaccine does not replicate. In COVID, it obviously does." This is misleading. The spike protein is created similarly in both cases, both from RNA being introduced into the cells. "If I had to guess, I would say that anyone who gets myocarditis from the vaccine probably would have had a very bad time with COVID." This very much is a guess as we don't know the mechanism for what is causing myocarditis. My guess is that we'll find much lower levels of vaccine myocarditis in countries which aspirate injections, dramatically lowering the rate of inadvertent intravenous injections. And we'll find that the cause of SARS-COV-2 myocarditis differs greatly from vaccine induced myocarditis.
telesilla 5y ago
This is a useful resource for reporting side effects. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/... Note: VAERS accepts reports of adverse events and reactions that occur following vaccination. Healthcare providers, vaccine manufacturers, and the public can submit reports to the system. While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness. The reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental, or unverifiable. In large part, reports to VAERS are voluntary, which means they are subject to biases. This creates specific limitations on how the data can be used scientifically. Data from VAERS reports should always be interpreted with these limitations in mind.
parkingrift 5y ago
What I want to know is... what's the rate of myocarditis in vaccinated individuals who get covid compared to the rate of myocarditis in unvaccinated individuals who get covid? It is now obvious that the vaccines do not prevent covid. But do the vaccines reduce the likelihood of myocarditis for when I do catch covid? Or is it the same 150 per 100k that the CDC estimates?
- vannevar 5y ago
  >It is now obvious that the vaccines do not prevent covid. For the record, that was obvious when the vaccines were released, as the trial results for vaccine effectiveness against infection for all the vaccines were clearly and widely reported to be significantly less than 100%. I think you may be referring to the lower effectiveness against new variants, which, again, was always reported as a possibility even before variants started appearing.
  - parkingrift 5y ago
    Pfizer and BioNTech concluded their phase 3 study and reported their vaccine to be 95% effective against COVID-19 beginning 28 days after the first dose.[0] This was widely reported in the American and worldwide media.[3][4][5][6] Fauci said the results were "extraordinary" and would "have a major impact on everything that we do with regard to COVID."[1] >For the record, that was obvious when the vaccines were released It doesn't seem obvious to me at all. Seems like an outright retelling of history. You should do a search for the period of November 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021 on this topic. [0]: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta... [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-pfizer-vaccine-90-percent-efficacy-rate-extraordinary-2020-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-pfizer-vaccine-90-perc... [3]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/09/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-effective/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/09/pfizer-coro... [4]: https://theconversation.com/pfizer-vaccine-what-an-efficacy-rate-above-90-really-means-149849 https://theconversation.com/pfizer-vaccine-what-an-efficacy-... [5]: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54986208 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54986208 [6]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/933006651/pfizer-says-experimental-covid-19-vaccine-is-more-than-90-effective https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/9330066...
ostenning 5y ago
If a doctor doesn't find any immediate causal link between chest pain and vaccination, or if the tests performed in hospital look normal, which is typically troponin, ECG and chest xray, then the patient is often dismissed and told to rest and then subsequently follow up with a cardiologist if the pain doesn't improve. The inflammation may not be acute enough for a definitive diagnosis of myocarditis. Go to a cardiologist and have a CT and MRI for a thorough diagnosis. Do not dismiss chest pain
wesapien 5y ago

84 points by malchow 5y ago

Interesting. However I don't like the fact of checking both mrna vaccines. It would be interesting to compare moderna vs pfizer

jldl805 5y ago
I'm just one lonely data point but I got really bad myocardia (didn't know what it was at the time but woke up three days after my second shot and it literally felt like my heart was going to explode out of my chest... or like I had a high pressure bag of camp fire smoke in my chest, it burned and hurt). I got Pfizer each time, was a 34 year old male at the time.

phonypc 5y ago

Would be nice to have some reasoning given for why I51.4 should be included. Not a physician, but it appears to indicate a pre-existing cardiac condition, in which case it seems reasonable to exclude those cases on the grounds of not being able to establish that the vaccine was the likely cause.

orangebeet 5y ago

About 7 days after the first mRNA shot, I got really bad chest pain. I went to see my doctor and my EKG was okay. It only got worse from there, and eventually I was sent to the hospital and diagnosed with pericarditis. The pericarditis wasn't registered as "caused by the vaccine", since it took three weeks before I finally got a hospital appointment, and by then it was too late to prove. I'm 31 years old and relatively fit and I've never had any issues until 7 days after the vaccine. So when this wasn't attributed to the vaccine, here in Denmark, what percentage of issues will be attributed to the vaccine in a country with a greater population density, like India? As a consequence of this, I find the "~23 in a million" get heart complications highly questionable.

dham 5y ago
I've seen 2 people on my Facebook feed have issues. One is pretty big in the skydiving community. He had a Moderna booster and it all went downhill. He's doing better now. He initially thought the vaccine was to blame but then it seemed that there were issues for a while but it kind of put him over the edge. Again all anecdotal.
- UnFleshedOne 5y ago
  It would make sense that pre-existing heart issues would be worsened by vaccine that has heart complications. Similar to how covid itself is much more deadly with pre-existing comorbidities while being mostly harmless for healthy young people.
  - jjeaff 5y ago
    Imagine having preexisting heart conditions and getting COVID, which is known to have much higher rates of heart complications.
- orangebeet 5y ago
  - gregoryl 5y ago
    Your language pushes pretty hard for a conclusion. Consider: A friend had no heart issues for 35 years, decided to take a new route to work, and dropped dead of a heart attack. Is it coincidental? Of course it is. Anecdotal / single point evidence is completely useless. The study gives you the actual numbers on how likely it's a coincidence or not.
    - aaplok 5y ago
      > The study gives you the actual numbers on how likely it's a coincidence or not. The study doesn't really do that. What it does is compare different methodologies for counting the number of incidences of (myo|peri)-carditis following the 2nd shot. They conclude that the methodology used officially gives lower numbers than other methodologies. Counting how likely a coincidence it is is something we can do reasonably well using standard null hypothesis testing: compare the number of incidences of pericarditis in a random sample against a sample of patients post-vaccine. But this is not something that the article does. The difficulty, discussed in the article, lies in deciding what counts as "post-vaccine".

dv_dt 5y ago

To add other info on relative outcomes: > During March 2020–January 2021, patients with COVID-19 had nearly 16 times the risk for myocarditis compared with patients who did not have COVID-19, and risk varied by sex and age. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm

megous 5y ago
And how exactly is this hospital visiting covid diagnosed demographic comparable to complications in a normal healthy people receiving vaccine against covid?
0-_-0 5y ago
How about only young men, since that's what's the title is about?
- dham 5y ago
  - phonypc 5y ago
    The numbers in that tweet are based on this (pre-print) paper which reports a higher rate than the CDC does, and doesn't give a figure for Moderna specifically, so doesn't really work as a source for that "known fact" if that was your intent. I don't see how body mass and aspiration can possibly explain the presentation of vaccine associated myocarditis we're seeing. i.e. increased incidence in pubescent boys and young men. They should tend towards lower body mass than older men, and the people administering vaccines don't aspirate in general, not just for some demographics. This demographic is just generally more susceptible to myocarditis from any cause.
    - dham 5y ago
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_df67JdhGB8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_df67JdhGB8

EnlightenedBro 5y ago

A good friend of mine told me that he developed shortness of breath and palpitations after his first shot, and had to spend 8 hours in the ER. While I do acknowledge that there is a lot of misinformation on the topic out there, it was really weird to see an actual real person you know suffer from a side effect of a shot. I started to think that things aren't as simple as they seem to be advertised...

gitgrump 5y ago
Those are also symptoms of a panic attack, which is not uncommon for some people who dislike needles. What did the ER learn about his condition?
jjeaff 5y ago
That sounds like it could be a panic attack. Perhaps panic due to all the fear mongering about the vaccine?
bsaul 5y ago
heard a story of a nurse vaccinating a 16 yo kids crying and not wanting the vaccine and dying in the minutes after the shot. It seems totally unbelievable, but the story was only n+2 (from someone knowing the nurse). Also said people in vaccine center had clear instructions not to mention anything happening there. All this seems totally paranoid, i know. But i've also found numerus videos of actual doctors mentionning huge numbers of blood disorders in their own patients following the injection, so...
RedBeetDeadpool 5y ago
Why are there two separate commenters saying that it was a panic attack? Is this the recommended explanation medical professionals should provide now when a patient has to spend 8 hours in ER, or is HN full medical experts in panic attacks? ---- > "You are experiencing a panic attack" > "I am experiencing a panic attack" > "These aren't the droids you're looking for" > "These aren't the droids I'm looking for"
- RedBeetDeadpool 5y ago

commandlinefan 5y ago

What I can't seem to figure out (and the knee-jerk censorship of any discussion on the topic isn't helping...) is whether or not this is unusual, as vaccines go. Although I never thought much about it before, it seems like no vaccine could possibly be 100% safe, so, say the smallpox vaccine must produce occasional side effects. How does this vaccine compare with all the other ones? Smallpox will almost definitely kill you, so a small chance of a side effect is worth it. What is the real cost/benefit of getting this particular vaccine?

jjeaff 5y ago
I think the most important data point you should compare in this case is the rate of myopericarditis in young men who get COVID. It's somewhat irrelevant what the rate is in past vaccines. Two things seem pretty clear from the data. The first is that myocarditis rates are much higher in unvaccinated young men who get COVID than those who get the vaccine. And the second is that you almost certainly will get COVID eventually. One hypothesis is that the spike protein in the vaccine is what causes the myocarditis. If you are scared of that, then you should be really scared of how much more spike protein you are going to have in your body if you get COVID unvaccinated. The spike protein in the vaccine does not replicate. In COVID, it obviously does. If I had to guess, I would say that anyone who gets myocarditis from the vaccine probably would have had a very bad time with COVID.
- commandlinefan 5y ago
  Interesting, thanks, I had not heard/seen that before.
- merpnderp 5y ago
  "And the second is that you almost certainly will get COVID eventually" this wasn't true until Omicron. Social distancing, proper masking, and maintaining good ventilation were all ways to dramatically lower your chances of getting any of the previous strains. And Omicron is so much milder it would be shocking if myocarditis rates remain higher than in vaccinations. "The spike protein in the vaccine does not replicate. In COVID, it obviously does." This is misleading. The spike protein is created similarly in both cases, both from RNA being introduced into the cells. "If I had to guess, I would say that anyone who gets myocarditis from the vaccine probably would have had a very bad time with COVID." This very much is a guess as we don't know the mechanism for what is causing myocarditis. My guess is that we'll find much lower levels of vaccine myocarditis in countries which aspirate injections, dramatically lowering the rate of inadvertent intravenous injections. And we'll find that the cause of SARS-COV-2 myocarditis differs greatly from vaccine induced myocarditis.

telesilla 5y ago

This is a useful resource for reporting side effects. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/vaers/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/ensuringsafety/monitoring/... Note: VAERS accepts reports of adverse events and reactions that occur following vaccination. Healthcare providers, vaccine manufacturers, and the public can submit reports to the system. While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness. The reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental, or unverifiable. In large part, reports to VAERS are voluntary, which means they are subject to biases. This creates specific limitations on how the data can be used scientifically. Data from VAERS reports should always be interpreted with these limitations in mind.

parkingrift 5y ago

What I want to know is... what's the rate of myocarditis in vaccinated individuals who get covid compared to the rate of myocarditis in unvaccinated individuals who get covid? It is now obvious that the vaccines do not prevent covid. But do the vaccines reduce the likelihood of myocarditis for when I do catch covid? Or is it the same 150 per 100k that the CDC estimates?

vannevar 5y ago
>It is now obvious that the vaccines do not prevent covid. For the record, that was obvious when the vaccines were released, as the trial results for vaccine effectiveness against infection for all the vaccines were clearly and widely reported to be significantly less than 100%. I think you may be referring to the lower effectiveness against new variants, which, again, was always reported as a possibility even before variants started appearing.
- parkingrift 5y ago
  Pfizer and BioNTech concluded their phase 3 study and reported their vaccine to be 95% effective against COVID-19 beginning 28 days after the first dose.[0] This was widely reported in the American and worldwide media.[3][4][5][6] Fauci said the results were "extraordinary" and would "have a major impact on everything that we do with regard to COVID."[1] >For the record, that was obvious when the vaccines were released It doesn't seem obvious to me at all. Seems like an outright retelling of history. You should do a search for the period of November 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021 on this topic. [0]: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta... [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-pfizer-vaccine-90-percent-efficacy-rate-extraordinary-2020-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-pfizer-vaccine-90-perc... [3]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/09/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-effective/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/09/pfizer-coro... [4]: https://theconversation.com/pfizer-vaccine-what-an-efficacy-rate-above-90-really-means-149849 https://theconversation.com/pfizer-vaccine-what-an-efficacy-... [5]: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54986208 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54986208 [6]: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/933006651/pfizer-says-experimental-covid-19-vaccine-is-more-than-90-effective https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/9330066...

ostenning 5y ago

If a doctor doesn't find any immediate causal link between chest pain and vaccination, or if the tests performed in hospital look normal, which is typically troponin, ECG and chest xray, then the patient is often dismissed and told to rest and then subsequently follow up with a cardiologist if the pain doesn't improve. The inflammation may not be acute enough for a definitive diagnosis of myocarditis. Go to a cardiologist and have a CT and MRI for a thorough diagnosis. Do not dismiss chest pain

wesapien 5y ago