12 ms·

Just because there is a low vaccination rate doesn't mean there is not a shit load of vaccinated people in the region. Sub-saharan Africa has more than a billi

Just because there is a low vaccination rate doesn't mean there is not a shit load of vaccinated people in the region. Sub-saharan Africa has more than a billion people. Is there any solid evidence this variant actually evolved in Sub-Saharan Africa anyway?

_djo_ 5y ago
It means it’s less likely than other more compelling explanations. For instance, South Africa has previously observed similar huge evolutionary jumps in single immunosuppressed patients with HIV. A similar case was observed in Europe with leukaemia. The case distribution and timing makes it extremely likely that it emerged in the region, yes. Given the evidence, the only reason for claiming that vaccine selective pressure is the only or even most likely explanation is a statement driven by ideology not reality.
- peteradio 5y ago
  > t means it’s less likely than other more compelling explanations. I don't really think so. We can safely say we are exploring where the latest originated and comparison of hypotheses overall likelihood is difficult to do in even simple cases and huge data in a well defined regime like physics. Our back of the napkin handwaves are piss in the wind. > The case distribution and timing makes it extremely likely that it emerged in the region, yes. It emerged in a population but originated in a particular body, it makes it almost pointless to say it came from this or that country when we are trying to understand the actual body it came from. (I say body because there is another thread discussing mouse origins). > Given the evidence, the only reason for claiming that vaccine selective pressure is the only or even most likely explanation is a statement driven by ideology not reality. Totally. I think someone is exploring one of their pet theory and how it fits with this evidence.

12 ms·

Just because there is a low vaccination rate doesn't mean there is not a shit load of vaccinated people in the region. Sub-saharan Africa has more than a billi

by peteradio 5y ago

_djo_ 5y ago
It means it’s less likely than other more compelling explanations. For instance, South Africa has previously observed similar huge evolutionary jumps in single immunosuppressed patients with HIV. A similar case was observed in Europe with leukaemia. The case distribution and timing makes it extremely likely that it emerged in the region, yes. Given the evidence, the only reason for claiming that vaccine selective pressure is the only or even most likely explanation is a statement driven by ideology not reality.
- peteradio 5y ago
  > t means it’s less likely than other more compelling explanations. I don't really think so. We can safely say we are exploring where the latest originated and comparison of hypotheses overall likelihood is difficult to do in even simple cases and huge data in a well defined regime like physics. Our back of the napkin handwaves are piss in the wind. > The case distribution and timing makes it extremely likely that it emerged in the region, yes. It emerged in a population but originated in a particular body, it makes it almost pointless to say it came from this or that country when we are trying to understand the actual body it came from. (I say body because there is another thread discussing mouse origins). > Given the evidence, the only reason for claiming that vaccine selective pressure is the only or even most likely explanation is a statement driven by ideology not reality. Totally. I think someone is exploring one of their pet theory and how it fits with this evidence.