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Yes, and I've been asking this question for some time after seeing the Danish data. The vaccinated are overrepresented by a large amount. Something close to 90%

by a0-prw 5y ago

Yes, and I've been asking this question for some time after seeing the Danish data. The vaccinated are overrepresented by a large amount. Something close to 90% of Omicron infections are in the vaccinated while they are about 75% of the population. About 8.5% are in unvaccinated. I don't believe this can be due to different behaviour or restrictions on unvaxxed because society is open if you have a negative test. Very interesting. It's almost as if this experiment is having unforseen consequences XD

anakaine 5y ago
Could it be as simple as those who have made the effort to get vaccinated are more keenly aware of monitoring for symptoms and are more likely to take the step of being tested to help prevent transmission where as those who remain unvaccinated are more likely to remain untested when symptomatic? Another poster here suggested that we are seeing the mRNA vaccines causing an immune response on a particular axis and that has caused selective pressure on mutations resulting in mutations such as Omicron, which in turn manifests more symptomatically in the vaccinated. We have some correlation, but no exploration of causation. Id suggest that twitter thread is jumping to conclusions without considering the why.
- _v7gu 5y ago
  You have to regularly take tests if you aren't vaccinated, so that mechanism works in the opposite direction. We should have been seeing a higher representation in the unvaccinated even if the virus simply ignored the vaccine.
  - Scandiravian 5y ago
    I disagree If this variant is mostly asymptomatic, but spreads rapidly, in the vaccinated population, then you would also see higher rates in the vaccinated population, given that vaccinated people only test after they are notified that they have been in contact with someone who tested positive. This gives a larger window for the virus to spread further among the vaccinated part of the population before containment.
  - CodeGlitch 5y ago
    My anti-vax relatives refuse to even test for covid. Now if this behaviour is multiplied across all the antivaxers, then could this be the reason for the skewed results?
Scandiravian 5y ago
I don't think different behaviours between the two groups can be discounted. If unvaccinated has to be tested to participate in social activities, they'll get tested more often and isolate if they get a positive test preventing spread to others in their group (this assumes that unvaccinated group together somewhat, which I don't have any evidence for besides anecdotally) Being vaccinated might also lead to risky behaviour disproportionate to the risk mitigation provided by the vaccine - it might be a consequence of risk homeostasis, but the risk has now increased, which skews the bias towards more infections in the vaccinated group.
nojokes 5y ago
Normally we know how many people are vaccinated because we counted them. Are you sure that this 8.5% is the correct figure though? How big could be the possible error here? How big is omicron prevalence in Denmark? ECDC data appears to be way outdated. It can be possible that unvaccinated catch the Delta first for some reason. Perhaps because Delta is still more prevalent and does not affect vaccinated so easily but omicron does. Behavioral changes may also explain some of the difference. If the testing has been mandatory for long time, I would expect some testing fatigue to appear resulting in lower social activity for unvaccinated. Are there recent seroprevalence studies available? How many from the current unvaccinated population are still uninfected? Previous infection may offer still reasonably good protection against omicron regardless of lower laboratory neutralization activity. Of course there is also possibility that vaccinated are more affected by omicron but I would then not expect the third dose to increase the protection against it but lower it instead. Efficiency should also increase in time, not get lower. Unless there is some mechanism involved that leaves previously vaccinated people with waned immune response even more vulnerable that people without any previous immunity.
foothebar 5y ago
If you want to judge the situation, you have to take relative numbers, related to vaccination state. Then you will see, that a much higher percentage of unvaccinated people get Covid-19 and Omicron, and the vaccinated people are much safer.
- a0-prw 5y ago
  8.5 % of Omicron infections are in unvaccinated. The unvaccinated are about 25 % of the population. About 90% of Omicron infections are in the vaccinated. They are about 75% of the population. If Omicron spread equally among both vaxxed and unvaxxed, you should see percentages that represent their fraction of the population.
- throwaway27727 5y ago
  The post mentions the rate is per-capita

by a0-prw 5y ago

anakaine 5y ago

Could it be as simple as those who have made the effort to get vaccinated are more keenly aware of monitoring for symptoms and are more likely to take the step of being tested to help prevent transmission where as those who remain unvaccinated are more likely to remain untested when symptomatic? Another poster here suggested that we are seeing the mRNA vaccines causing an immune response on a particular axis and that has caused selective pressure on mutations resulting in mutations such as Omicron, which in turn manifests more symptomatically in the vaccinated. We have some correlation, but no exploration of causation. Id suggest that twitter thread is jumping to conclusions without considering the why.

_v7gu 5y ago
You have to regularly take tests if you aren't vaccinated, so that mechanism works in the opposite direction. We should have been seeing a higher representation in the unvaccinated even if the virus simply ignored the vaccine.
- Scandiravian 5y ago
  I disagree If this variant is mostly asymptomatic, but spreads rapidly, in the vaccinated population, then you would also see higher rates in the vaccinated population, given that vaccinated people only test after they are notified that they have been in contact with someone who tested positive. This gives a larger window for the virus to spread further among the vaccinated part of the population before containment.
- CodeGlitch 5y ago
  My anti-vax relatives refuse to even test for covid. Now if this behaviour is multiplied across all the antivaxers, then could this be the reason for the skewed results?

Scandiravian 5y ago

I don't think different behaviours between the two groups can be discounted. If unvaccinated has to be tested to participate in social activities, they'll get tested more often and isolate if they get a positive test preventing spread to others in their group (this assumes that unvaccinated group together somewhat, which I don't have any evidence for besides anecdotally) Being vaccinated might also lead to risky behaviour disproportionate to the risk mitigation provided by the vaccine - it might be a consequence of risk homeostasis, but the risk has now increased, which skews the bias towards more infections in the vaccinated group.

nojokes 5y ago

Normally we know how many people are vaccinated because we counted them. Are you sure that this 8.5% is the correct figure though? How big could be the possible error here? How big is omicron prevalence in Denmark? ECDC data appears to be way outdated. It can be possible that unvaccinated catch the Delta first for some reason. Perhaps because Delta is still more prevalent and does not affect vaccinated so easily but omicron does. Behavioral changes may also explain some of the difference. If the testing has been mandatory for long time, I would expect some testing fatigue to appear resulting in lower social activity for unvaccinated. Are there recent seroprevalence studies available? How many from the current unvaccinated population are still uninfected? Previous infection may offer still reasonably good protection against omicron regardless of lower laboratory neutralization activity. Of course there is also possibility that vaccinated are more affected by omicron but I would then not expect the third dose to increase the protection against it but lower it instead. Efficiency should also increase in time, not get lower. Unless there is some mechanism involved that leaves previously vaccinated people with waned immune response even more vulnerable that people without any previous immunity.

foothebar 5y ago

If you want to judge the situation, you have to take relative numbers, related to vaccination state. Then you will see, that a much higher percentage of unvaccinated people get Covid-19 and Omicron, and the vaccinated people are much safer.

a0-prw 5y ago
8.5 % of Omicron infections are in unvaccinated. The unvaccinated are about 25 % of the population. About 90% of Omicron infections are in the vaccinated. They are about 75% of the population. If Omicron spread equally among both vaxxed and unvaxxed, you should see percentages that represent their fraction of the population.
throwaway27727 5y ago
The post mentions the rate is per-capita