4 ms·
This actually deserves to be talked about more. Authorities seem to stand behind the Wuhan "wet market" theory but there's really no evidence of that, specific
by cletus 5y ago
This actually deserves to be talked about more.
Authorities seem to stand behind the Wuhan "wet market" theory but there's really no evidence of that, specifically if it came from an animal population, how come 2+ years later we haven't found that animal population? Also the bat coronavirus population is hundreds of miles away so how did this end up in Wuhan?
This brings us to the "lab leak" theory. There are lots of possibilities here. If this is true (and that's a mighty big IF) then my suspicion is that this was an accident and the CCP doesn't necessarily know what happened but there's absolutely incentivized not to find out. I find claims that this was a deliberate release to be unconvincing.
The key factors supporting this theory, or at least are open questions requiring further investigation are:
1. There's really no compelling alternative theory supported by substantial evidence;
2. The WHO has really lost a lot of credibility here. In early 2020, the WHO was bending over backwards not to upset China and not much has changed. In 2021 there was a joint investigation with the Chinese but the scope was pretty limited;
3. There used to be a database of coronaviruses that China had. In late 2019 this was taken offline. To date AFAIK this has never been examined by WHO investigators or any independent authority. Now this doesn't prove anything by itself but you'd think a thorough investigation would include examining it in its scope.
4. A long time (over a year) passed between the start of the outbreak and the investigation. This is a long time for evidence to go cold or "missing".
To compare, the origins of two previous coronavirus outbreaks (ie SARS and MERS) were relatively quickly identified.
No lab worker or official wants to be responsible for a leak (if there was one). No one wants to find out they were responsible. The CCP also doesn't want to set the precedent they're answerable or accountable to international authorities. This is what I mean when I say I suspect the CCP doesn't know and doesn't want to know.
- okaram 5y agoI think this is mostly asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin ... What definitive evidence can we provide of an animal host now? What definitive evidence can we provide of a lab leak? Of a deliberate release? I don't think we can provide definitive evidence for any of the options, that proponents of another theory, even the reasonable ones, will accept, so ... I believe it is exactly 3 angels.
- wott 5y agoThere cannot be evidence of the first, but there can be evidence of the other two (supposing one of the latter options happened). The problem is that there cannot be evidence that those two didn't happen. So if the first option happened, we can never be sure of it; the only way of being sure of something is if one of the other options happened and it is revealed.
- ggm 5y agoYour argument is functionally a syllogism. You assert the argument for an animal host is weak and dismiss it in one sentence but it has been repeatedly observed finding the origin host of viral infection can take years and years. Secondly you discuss the lab leak theory at length and construct the state of being that because not A it must be B but there is no dichotomy here, there are many choices, including the fantastical which break Occam's razor but alas may turn out to be true. Simply because we have not found a wild host does not make lableak "true" or even more likely. I have no idea what the origin is. I'm not in the field, I'm not competent to judge. What I read suggests most people who are competent to judge want more evidence. If your point is that the CCPs exclusion of external verification of theories is proof, I'm sorry but it's just not proof: there are many reasons why the Chinese government does this, guilt is not a given although fear of guilt is plausible. Shaming the state is not easy or wise for people in this political system and "Strong China" Plays inside the government and the party (they are different things btw) as well as differences between ministries, departments, provinces, external parties make this a very complex problem. Power struggles often have nothing to do with the ostensible reasons they are fought over.
- hattmall 5y agoYou can judge. You can get all the evidence available to you and make an assessment. You can update that assessment as you gain more evidence, and you can share that with other people. No one has to defer to your authority if you don't make a good case. Stop waiting for "experts" to tell you how to use your judgement. Listening to supposed experts is why we have had such a prolonged battle with COVID with so much non-disease related societal harm.
- ggm 5y agoMy judgement such as it is, says we need a lot more time to be confident about the root cause and its premature to judge based solely on what is known at present from primary sources. I also judge most people's opinions are being formed from at best secondary and probably tertiary sources. I personally think your clarion call isn't helping.
- seattle_spring 5y ago> This actually deserves to be talked about more Does it? It's brought up in nearly every covid related thread both here and on Reddit. I couldn't avoid talking about it or reading about it even if I tried.
- mandmandam 5y agoHave we had an independent investigation? No? Then let's talk about it more.
- AlbertoGP 5y agoFor those interested in the evidence, this has been researched and documented by Charles Rixey, retired Marine and WMD expert.: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352536433_Prometheus_Shrugged_Censorship_the_Legacy_of_COVID-19 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352536433_Prometheu... His research is ongoing: https://prometheusshrugged.substack.com/ https://prometheusshrugged.substack.com/
- david_draco 5y agoThe animal population has been known for decades, it is bats in rural Wuhan. People catch the bats and sell them at the Wuhan wet market. Mystery solved.