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How can you be so sure. The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus. Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if th

How can you be so sure. The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus. Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if the original virus came from a lab: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/briefing/lab-leak-theory-covid-origins.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/briefing/lab-leak-theory-... What do you know that the U.S. president and U.S. intelligence doesn't?

stirfish 5y ago
I think USA intelligence only decided that it isn't a bioweapon https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-coronavirus-lab-leak/2021/08/27/8f20b024-0740-11ec-8c3f-3526f81b233b_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-coron...
- halpert 5y ago
  I didn't say it was a bioweapon, just that it very well could have originated in a lab. From your article: > The two main hypotheses — that the virus jumped from animals to humans in a natural process, or that it escaped from a research laboratory in China — remain on the table, ODNI said. Both theories are plausible, the agencies concluded.
  - stirfish 5y ago
    I know, I was just providing some context. You sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole :)
jcranmer 5y ago
> The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus. Fact check: false. The early cases in Wuhan almost all cluster near the wet market, not the virology lab, which is on the outskirts of town on the other side of the river some ~30km from the market. (And to the extent they don't cluster near that market, they do favor quite strongly the market's side of the river, not the virology lab's side of the river.) > Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if the original virus came from a lab Because a government has never, ever called for an investigation or an action to be taken because of political pressure despite its internal knowledge bases saying there is no need to investigate it.
- adolph 5y ago
  The Wuchang campus is closer, 17k away. Crucially, however, the now famous “earliest” COVID-19 case (1), a 41-year-old male accountant, who lived 30 km south of Huanan Market and had no connection to it—illness onset reported as 8 December—may have become ill with COVID-19 considerably later. . . . This suggests that he may have been infected through community transmission after the virus had begun spreading from Huanan Market. [C]onclusive evidence of a Huanan Market origin from infected wildlife may nonetheless be obtainable through analysis of spatial patterns of early cases and from additional genomic data, including SARS-CoV-2–positive samples from Huanan Market, as well as through integration of additional epidemiologic data. Preventing future pandemics depends on this effort. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454
  - jcranmer 5y ago
    The Wuchang campus may be closer, but the image of the case clusters still shows strong clustering near the markets and not particularly near either campus.
  - tptacek 5y ago
    That's the distance from the Mission to SFO, or from the Freedom Tower all the way across Manhattan to Harlem. Seems like a hike.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- pizza234 5y ago
  > Fact check: false. The early cases in Wuhan almost all cluster near the wet market, not the virology lab, which is on the outskirts of town on the other side of the river some ~30km from the market. (And to the extent they don't cluster near that market, they do favor quite strongly the market's side of the river, not the virology lab's side of the river.) To be considered: > the Wuhan CDC ‘hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification’. Moreover, the Xiaos described how a lead researcher at this laboratory who collected bats had featured in articles and at least one broadcast video revealing that ‘he was once attacked by bats and the blood of a bat shot on his skin. He knew the extreme danger of the infection so he quarantined himself for 14 days. In another accident, he quarantined himself again because bats peed on him.’ Given that ‘surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing’, relatively close to the Huanan seafood market where clusters of Covid-19 cases had been detected, it was reasonable to ask whether an accident had occurred, the two scientists argued. If a case like this was hypothetically true, it would sit on a line between zoonotic origin and lab leak. Remember that lab leak doesn't imply bioengineering. > the virology lab, which is [...] some ~30km from the market. Independently of lab leak or not, this is wrong. You can check on google maps that by car (and even more in a straight line), is less than 15 km.

stirfish 5y ago

I think USA intelligence only decided that it isn't a bioweapon https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-coronavirus-lab-leak/2021/08/27/8f20b024-0740-11ec-8c3f-3526f81b233b_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-coron...

halpert 5y ago
I didn't say it was a bioweapon, just that it very well could have originated in a lab. From your article: > The two main hypotheses — that the virus jumped from animals to humans in a natural process, or that it escaped from a research laboratory in China — remain on the table, ODNI said. Both theories are plausible, the agencies concluded.
- stirfish 5y ago
  I know, I was just providing some context. You sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole :)

jcranmer 5y ago

> The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus. Fact check: false. The early cases in Wuhan almost all cluster near the wet market, not the virology lab, which is on the outskirts of town on the other side of the river some ~30km from the market. (And to the extent they don't cluster near that market, they do favor quite strongly the market's side of the river, not the virology lab's side of the river.) > Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if the original virus came from a lab Because a government has never, ever called for an investigation or an action to be taken because of political pressure despite its internal knowledge bases saying there is no need to investigate it.

adolph 5y ago
The Wuchang campus is closer, 17k away. Crucially, however, the now famous “earliest” COVID-19 case (1), a 41-year-old male accountant, who lived 30 km south of Huanan Market and had no connection to it—illness onset reported as 8 December—may have become ill with COVID-19 considerably later. . . . This suggests that he may have been infected through community transmission after the virus had begun spreading from Huanan Market. [C]onclusive evidence of a Huanan Market origin from infected wildlife may nonetheless be obtainable through analysis of spatial patterns of early cases and from additional genomic data, including SARS-CoV-2–positive samples from Huanan Market, as well as through integration of additional epidemiologic data. Preventing future pandemics depends on this effort. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454
- jcranmer 5y ago
  The Wuchang campus may be closer, but the image of the case clusters still shows strong clustering near the markets and not particularly near either campus.
- tptacek 5y ago
  That's the distance from the Mission to SFO, or from the Freedom Tower all the way across Manhattan to Harlem. Seems like a hike.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
pizza234 5y ago
> Fact check: false. The early cases in Wuhan almost all cluster near the wet market, not the virology lab, which is on the outskirts of town on the other side of the river some ~30km from the market. (And to the extent they don't cluster near that market, they do favor quite strongly the market's side of the river, not the virology lab's side of the river.) To be considered: > the Wuhan CDC ‘hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification’. Moreover, the Xiaos described how a lead researcher at this laboratory who collected bats had featured in articles and at least one broadcast video revealing that ‘he was once attacked by bats and the blood of a bat shot on his skin. He knew the extreme danger of the infection so he quarantined himself for 14 days. In another accident, he quarantined himself again because bats peed on him.’ Given that ‘surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing’, relatively close to the Huanan seafood market where clusters of Covid-19 cases had been detected, it was reasonable to ask whether an accident had occurred, the two scientists argued. If a case like this was hypothetically true, it would sit on a line between zoonotic origin and lab leak. Remember that lab leak doesn't imply bioengineering. > the virology lab, which is [...] some ~30km from the market. Independently of lab leak or not, this is wrong. You can check on google maps that by car (and even more in a straight line), is less than 15 km.