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Comments like these are frustrating. This pandemic was predicted for many years by scientist. I don't understand why the public wants to believe in the fantasy

Comments like these are frustrating. This pandemic was predicted for many years by scientist. I don't understand why the public wants to believe in the fantasy that this was deliberate action. No, this pandemic was caused by deliberate inaction.

todd3834 5y ago
If it came from a lab then it was caused by overaction. If it came from the wild then you are right. That’s the reason people want to know
- petre 5y ago
  It could have come from guano miners just as easily, but bringing it to a 50M population center was a recipe for disaster. Ebola and AIDS did not come from a lab but from tampering with wild animals.
halpert 5y ago
How can you be so sure. The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus. Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if the original virus came from a lab: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/briefing/lab-leak-theory-covid-origins.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/briefing/lab-leak-theory-... What do you know that the U.S. president and U.S. intelligence doesn't?
- stirfish 5y ago
  I think USA intelligence only decided that it isn't a bioweapon https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-coronavirus-lab-leak/2021/08/27/8f20b024-0740-11ec-8c3f-3526f81b233b_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-coron...
  - halpert 5y ago
    I didn't say it was a bioweapon, just that it very well could have originated in a lab. From your article: > The two main hypotheses — that the virus jumped from animals to humans in a natural process, or that it escaped from a research laboratory in China — remain on the table, ODNI said. Both theories are plausible, the agencies concluded.
    - stirfish 5y ago
      I know, I was just providing some context. You sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole :)
- jcranmer 5y ago
  > The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus. Fact check: false. The early cases in Wuhan almost all cluster near the wet market, not the virology lab, which is on the outskirts of town on the other side of the river some ~30km from the market. (And to the extent they don't cluster near that market, they do favor quite strongly the market's side of the river, not the virology lab's side of the river.) > Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if the original virus came from a lab Because a government has never, ever called for an investigation or an action to be taken because of political pressure despite its internal knowledge bases saying there is no need to investigate it.
  - adolph 5y ago
    The Wuchang campus is closer, 17k away. Crucially, however, the now famous “earliest” COVID-19 case (1), a 41-year-old male accountant, who lived 30 km south of Huanan Market and had no connection to it—illness onset reported as 8 December—may have become ill with COVID-19 considerably later. . . . This suggests that he may have been infected through community transmission after the virus had begun spreading from Huanan Market. [C]onclusive evidence of a Huanan Market origin from infected wildlife may nonetheless be obtainable through analysis of spatial patterns of early cases and from additional genomic data, including SARS-CoV-2–positive samples from Huanan Market, as well as through integration of additional epidemiologic data. Preventing future pandemics depends on this effort. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454
    - jcranmer 5y ago
      The Wuchang campus may be closer, but the image of the case clusters still shows strong clustering near the markets and not particularly near either campus.
    - tptacek 5y ago
      That's the distance from the Mission to SFO, or from the Freedom Tower all the way across Manhattan to Harlem. Seems like a hike.
  - deleted 5y ago
jessaustin 5y ago
You have oversimplified. It isn't necessary to believe that any researcher is capable of designing a sophisticated new virus. (Although, since this is all hooked to computers, just wait a decade...) It's just plausible that some researchers could be sloppy enough with inherently dangerous research to cause serious harm. Further, many have observed how those researchers have been at least partially funded by the same well-endowed funding entities that also fund major portions of most other research in virology. [EDIT:] But you're right about the "deliberate inaction". The obvious way to fight pandemics (as opposed to less contagious health threats) is to make sure everyone in society has access to relevant health care and other vital resources. This came naturally to many societies that earned much lower covid death rates than USA earned.
pizza234 5y ago
> I don't understand why the public wants to believe in the fantasy that this was deliberate action This is gross oversimplification. The fact that some scientists may know doesn't imply that the only possibility is deliberate action. Since there have been a lot of money poured on Coronaviruses research in the last decade, it's reasonable that, (important!) even not assuming a lab leak (/important!), scientists working on it, don't want to disclose it. Even those who didn't work on it are disincentived to talk about it, as their reputation is on the line (in particular, because of the misguided opinion that lab leak equals bioengineerd virus). A few co-subscribers of the Lancet letter changed their mind on the topic. It doesn't surprise me that they did it only recently - precisely because their position is now less endangered. > This pandemic was predicted for many years by scientist It's hard to extract any value from this, especially without a very serious analysis, because at any point in time, there will be people predicting that events of any kind will happen.

todd3834 5y ago

If it came from a lab then it was caused by overaction. If it came from the wild then you are right. That’s the reason people want to know

petre 5y ago
It could have come from guano miners just as easily, but bringing it to a 50M population center was a recipe for disaster. Ebola and AIDS did not come from a lab but from tampering with wild animals.

halpert 5y ago

How can you be so sure. The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus. Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if the original virus came from a lab: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/briefing/lab-leak-theory-covid-origins.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/briefing/lab-leak-theory-... What do you know that the U.S. president and U.S. intelligence doesn't?

stirfish 5y ago
I think USA intelligence only decided that it isn't a bioweapon https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-coronavirus-lab-leak/2021/08/27/8f20b024-0740-11ec-8c3f-3526f81b233b_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-coron...
- halpert 5y ago
  I didn't say it was a bioweapon, just that it very well could have originated in a lab. From your article: > The two main hypotheses — that the virus jumped from animals to humans in a natural process, or that it escaped from a research laboratory in China — remain on the table, ODNI said. Both theories are plausible, the agencies concluded.
  - stirfish 5y ago
    I know, I was just providing some context. You sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole :)
jcranmer 5y ago
> The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus. Fact check: false. The early cases in Wuhan almost all cluster near the wet market, not the virology lab, which is on the outskirts of town on the other side of the river some ~30km from the market. (And to the extent they don't cluster near that market, they do favor quite strongly the market's side of the river, not the virology lab's side of the river.) > Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if the original virus came from a lab Because a government has never, ever called for an investigation or an action to be taken because of political pressure despite its internal knowledge bases saying there is no need to investigate it.
- adolph 5y ago
  The Wuchang campus is closer, 17k away. Crucially, however, the now famous “earliest” COVID-19 case (1), a 41-year-old male accountant, who lived 30 km south of Huanan Market and had no connection to it—illness onset reported as 8 December—may have become ill with COVID-19 considerably later. . . . This suggests that he may have been infected through community transmission after the virus had begun spreading from Huanan Market. [C]onclusive evidence of a Huanan Market origin from infected wildlife may nonetheless be obtainable through analysis of spatial patterns of early cases and from additional genomic data, including SARS-CoV-2–positive samples from Huanan Market, as well as through integration of additional epidemiologic data. Preventing future pandemics depends on this effort. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454
  - jcranmer 5y ago
    The Wuchang campus may be closer, but the image of the case clusters still shows strong clustering near the markets and not particularly near either campus.
  - tptacek 5y ago
    That's the distance from the Mission to SFO, or from the Freedom Tower all the way across Manhattan to Harlem. Seems like a hike.
- deleted 5y ago

jessaustin 5y ago

You have oversimplified. It isn't necessary to believe that any researcher is capable of designing a sophisticated new virus. (Although, since this is all hooked to computers, just wait a decade...) It's just plausible that some researchers could be sloppy enough with inherently dangerous research to cause serious harm. Further, many have observed how those researchers have been at least partially funded by the same well-endowed funding entities that also fund major portions of most other research in virology. [EDIT:] But you're right about the "deliberate inaction". The obvious way to fight pandemics (as opposed to less contagious health threats) is to make sure everyone in society has access to relevant health care and other vital resources. This came naturally to many societies that earned much lower covid death rates than USA earned.

pizza234 5y ago

> I don't understand why the public wants to believe in the fantasy that this was deliberate action This is gross oversimplification. The fact that some scientists may know doesn't imply that the only possibility is deliberate action. Since there have been a lot of money poured on Coronaviruses research in the last decade, it's reasonable that, (important!) even not assuming a lab leak (/important!), scientists working on it, don't want to disclose it. Even those who didn't work on it are disincentived to talk about it, as their reputation is on the line (in particular, because of the misguided opinion that lab leak equals bioengineerd virus). A few co-subscribers of the Lancet letter changed their mind on the topic. It doesn't surprise me that they did it only recently - precisely because their position is now less endangered. > This pandemic was predicted for many years by scientist It's hard to extract any value from this, especially without a very serious analysis, because at any point in time, there will be people predicting that events of any kind will happen.