3 ms·
A tweet about this very article caught my eye yesterday, and I'm glad HN's taken notice too. https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/1477382805583716353?t=UAFtsf
by tambeb 5y ago
A tweet about this very article caught my eye yesterday, and I'm glad HN's taken notice too.
https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/1477382805583716353?t=UAFtsfEu43n_J2-fwA2JsA&s=09 https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/1477382805583716353?t=...
'For a disease w a 1-in-20,000 risk, a test w a false positive rate of 1% and a false negative rate of 0%—an insanely accurate test—would identify 1 correct case and 200 false positives every time. Or would be wrong 99.5% of the time.
This isn’t “bad tests.” This is… baserates.'