Population growth is about 0.4% in the US, so that's probably not a big factor. In 2019, the CDC estimated that age-adjusted expected lifespan increased by 1.2

Population growth is about 0.4% in the US, so that's probably not a big factor. In 2019, the CDC estimated that age-adjusted expected lifespan increased by 1.2% [0]. I think the population growth would indicate a lower death rate than implied by direct counting, since total pop is the denominator. However, I think the increased lifespan would work in the counter direction - Americans should live longer in 2020 than in '19 without C19. So while the CDC made methodological mistakes, I don't think it would affect the conclusion. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2020/202012.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2020/...