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Laughably bad? Ford sold just about as much, if not more, F150s in 2021 and that’s just one of their models. Taken into even the slightest context Tesla could s

by tjr225 5y ago

Laughably bad? Ford sold just about as much, if not more, F150s in 2021 and that’s just one of their models. Taken into even the slightest context Tesla could seem massively overvalued- and I say that as someone who likes their product.

8jy89hui 5y ago
I keep seeing this a Tesla vs. Ford qualitative comparison, so here is a more quantitative comparison: Ford's 2020 Q4 report [0] indicates a sales rate of ~2M cars / yr. The entire Ford truck brand sold around 1.1 M trucks [0] that year (2020) and 1.2 the year before (2019). Fordauthority.com (who may or may not be authoritative...) says that Ford is/was running slightly worse sales this year than last year [1]. However I don't think Ford has published their numbers for 2021 yet. Personal Opinion: Given Tesla's ramp of ~70%/yr, is it not absurd to think that Tesla will pass Ford's truck sales numbers within the next year and all of Ford's sales numbers within the next 2-3 years. (This is assuming lack of innovation on Ford's part. If Ford innovates with e-trucks then it will probably take a lot longer for Tesla to catch up) [0]: https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America/US/2021/01/06/ford-sales-release-dec2020.pdf https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America... [1]: https://fordauthority.com/2021/10/ford-motor-company-sales-numbers-figures-results-september-2021-usa/ https://fordauthority.com/2021/10/ford-motor-company-sales-n...
hw 5y ago
Valuation is forward looking and taking into account future growth as well with gigafactories coming online. Plenty of people had the same valuation argument and comparing sales vs other automakers 2 years ago but look where the company and valuations are now Ford is also years behind in battery and fsd tech. That being said, they need to match / best expectations handily to retain these valuations
panick21_ 5y ago
That such an terrible comparison. I mean seriously, the whole car industry is transitioning fundamentally both in terms of EV and in terms of technology including self driving. Just looking at past sales numbers and ignoring these transition is insane. Transitioning millions of vehicles to EV is an incredibly hard task and has massive cost and massive constraints do to battery, battery materials and chip availability. I'm not gone say Tesla is not 'overvalued' but just saying F-150 sells a lot therefore Tesla is overvalued is bad argument.
- tjr225 5y ago
  I agree. My response is to indicate that it isn’t laughably bad to be bearish on Tesla. Read the comment.

by tjr225 5y ago

8jy89hui 5y ago

I keep seeing this a Tesla vs. Ford qualitative comparison, so here is a more quantitative comparison: Ford's 2020 Q4 report [0] indicates a sales rate of ~2M cars / yr. The entire Ford truck brand sold around 1.1 M trucks [0] that year (2020) and 1.2 the year before (2019). Fordauthority.com (who may or may not be authoritative...) says that Ford is/was running slightly worse sales this year than last year [1]. However I don't think Ford has published their numbers for 2021 yet. Personal Opinion: Given Tesla's ramp of ~70%/yr, is it not absurd to think that Tesla will pass Ford's truck sales numbers within the next year and all of Ford's sales numbers within the next 2-3 years. (This is assuming lack of innovation on Ford's part. If Ford innovates with e-trucks then it will probably take a lot longer for Tesla to catch up) [0]: https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America/US/2021/01/06/ford-sales-release-dec2020.pdf https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America... [1]: https://fordauthority.com/2021/10/ford-motor-company-sales-numbers-figures-results-september-2021-usa/ https://fordauthority.com/2021/10/ford-motor-company-sales-n...

hw 5y ago

Valuation is forward looking and taking into account future growth as well with gigafactories coming online. Plenty of people had the same valuation argument and comparing sales vs other automakers 2 years ago but look where the company and valuations are now Ford is also years behind in battery and fsd tech. That being said, they need to match / best expectations handily to retain these valuations

panick21_ 5y ago

That such an terrible comparison. I mean seriously, the whole car industry is transitioning fundamentally both in terms of EV and in terms of technology including self driving. Just looking at past sales numbers and ignoring these transition is insane. Transitioning millions of vehicles to EV is an incredibly hard task and has massive cost and massive constraints do to battery, battery materials and chip availability. I'm not gone say Tesla is not 'overvalued' but just saying F-150 sells a lot therefore Tesla is overvalued is bad argument.

tjr225 5y ago
I agree. My response is to indicate that it isn’t laughably bad to be bearish on Tesla. Read the comment.