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I feel like article like this one are commonly used by the anti-vaccine community. They point to those ominous, rising death numbers and understand them as evid

I feel like article like this one are commonly used by the anti-vaccine community. They point to those ominous, rising death numbers and understand them as evidence for the dangers of mRNA vaccines. It would therefore (among other reasons) be helpful to understand where exactly that rise in numbers comes from, is it vaccines (which I don't think, else we'd be seeing a similar spike in, say, Europe)? Or is it being caused by other factors, such as fetanyl?

Spooky23 5y ago
The anti-vaccination people don’t need facts, so anything that creates FUD works for them. I live in a protest corridor, and the “freedom lovers” were demanding that we sacrifice the weak and old so that they could enjoy not getting a vaccine. It’s a gross type of mental illness.
- csee 5y ago
  > "freedom lovers" were demanding that we sacrifice the weak and old Isn't it the opposite? I recall various right-leaning figures talking about 'sacrificing' the young. Release them in order to get natural immunity, while locking up the old until that process is done. I think that was a rather bad idea, especially with the hindsight of knowing how quickly the vaccines were ready, but that's separate.
  - Spooky23 5y ago
    Like I said, they don’t make a lot of sense. I think there’s a few different branches of that approach. Why people were picketing a hospital with “sacrifice the weak” signs was very puzzling. But they were!
  - alisonkisk 5y ago
- dukeofdoom 5y ago
  The vaccine does not prevent anyone from getting or spreading covid. In Ontario same case rate of covid per 100k residents, in unxxed as vaxxed and heading higher. 3rd graph. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data?fbclid=IwAR2pRUq9GN9EEoDTm0OetspYalQy0Otcc41JS6b-L9BnzLOdhl1eZ1L4FHg https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data?fbclid=IwAR2pRUq9GN9EEoDTm0...
  - sm4rk0 5y ago
    "The anti-vaccination people don’t need facts" but pro-vaccination people will downvote the official data. Edit: ...as the parent comment was downvoted when I wrote this
    - manwe150 5y ago
      The page also shows that vaccinated people are far less likely to be in the ICU, which is an even more important metric.
      - dukeofdoom 5y ago
        This is the only metric still left, which ma be just time delayed. Also people in ICU with covid may not be the same thing as people in ICU because of covid. It may likely just be that very sick people in hospitals are refusing the vaccine and catching it. Hospitals are confined spaces that aid in transmission of all kinds of diseases. The difference is 40 people out of a population of 14.5 million. So small it could literally be people with terminal diseases catching covid on their death beds. To use this to advocate for any preventative effect in a healthy individual in the general population would be misleading. Very likely the difference is just sampling bias.
        Spooky23 5y ago
        It could be many things. The simple explanation, that getting a vaccination that prevents or reduces the impact of a disease makes more sense. To the point that it’s a no-brainer. It’s a moot point now, as this phase of the pandemic is played out. People embraced fear, ignorance and doubt in the name of freedom. Many will needlessly suffer as a result.
lazyjones 5y ago
Official numbers for Europe are available at https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ They have graphs with excess deaths by age groups and you can see that 2021 looks worse than 2020, with a noticeable upwards trend starting around week 16 of 2021.
- progfix 5y ago
  Did you confuse 2020 with 2021? Because I can't find any other upwards around week 16 than tbe one in 2020.
  - lazyjones 5y ago
    No. Scroll down to "Excess mortality", look at 15-44 and 45-64 years graphs. The light blue line is 2021. It shows an upward trend that goes way beyond the ranges for 2020 and 2019.
Developerx 5y ago
[flagged]
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  We can look at stats. The US isn't the only country with vaccines.
  - Developerx 5y ago
    Stat from who? Are you sure you can believe the official stats and so called opendata? I'm not
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      So you don't trust any data from any country in the world?
      - Developerx 5y ago
  - nu11ptr 5y ago
    There are statisticians who have made such claims by modeling many highly vaccinated countries. I am not claiming they are right or wrong, but there are people who claim they have found this signal in the data using statistical methods.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      Link?
      - Developerx 5y ago
halfjoking 5y ago
You’re right - I’m anti-vaxx when it comes to mRNA vaccines and I often link to mainstream articles like this: https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-thousands-more-usual-dying-170117640.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-thousands-more-usual-dyi... Mainstream articles are biased with the spin of the situation but the facts are there. It goes over some causes of deaths - mostly heart/clotting issues, exactly what you’d expect from the vaxx. That’s why we call it the “clot-shot” In England people who took the vaxx are twice as likely to die as those who don’t: https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adults-under-60 https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adult... If you want an opposing view of that data read this fact-check: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-britain-idUSL1N2RP28I https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-britai... Notice how they don’t deny the statistic. They just say it’s taken “out of context” because covid deaths, and vaccines save lives. No matter how they spin it they can’t deny government data says vaccinated 18-59 are much more likely to die. That’s a fact, even though it’s marked as false by Reuters.
- jack_squat 5y ago
  Doesn't that all make sense? I'm not sure what the issue is here. The statistic that vaccinated people 18-59 are dying at twice the rate presumably true, so of course the reuters article doesn't deny it. The Reuters article presents a totally believable explanation, which is also in the original article's comments. What they are saying is that this can be true for the age range 18-59, but simultaneously not be true for any specific age brackets within that range. This is called Simpson's paradox. The explanation is that vaccination rates are higher among the elderly than among the young, and that the elderly have a higher baseline rate of death, and the Reuters article breaks out the numbers to demonstrate this. What's the big mystery exactly? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
  - halfjoking 5y ago
    Yes that explanation is plausible. I replied to another comment below what I take away from that statistic… mainly that vaccine mandates are BS given other factors such as age has such an impact on mortality and spread.

Spooky23 5y ago

The anti-vaccination people don’t need facts, so anything that creates FUD works for them. I live in a protest corridor, and the “freedom lovers” were demanding that we sacrifice the weak and old so that they could enjoy not getting a vaccine. It’s a gross type of mental illness.

csee 5y ago
> "freedom lovers" were demanding that we sacrifice the weak and old Isn't it the opposite? I recall various right-leaning figures talking about 'sacrificing' the young. Release them in order to get natural immunity, while locking up the old until that process is done. I think that was a rather bad idea, especially with the hindsight of knowing how quickly the vaccines were ready, but that's separate.
- Spooky23 5y ago
  Like I said, they don’t make a lot of sense. I think there’s a few different branches of that approach. Why people were picketing a hospital with “sacrifice the weak” signs was very puzzling. But they were!
- alisonkisk 5y ago
dukeofdoom 5y ago
The vaccine does not prevent anyone from getting or spreading covid. In Ontario same case rate of covid per 100k residents, in unxxed as vaxxed and heading higher. 3rd graph. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data?fbclid=IwAR2pRUq9GN9EEoDTm0OetspYalQy0Otcc41JS6b-L9BnzLOdhl1eZ1L4FHg https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data?fbclid=IwAR2pRUq9GN9EEoDTm0...
- sm4rk0 5y ago
  "The anti-vaccination people don’t need facts" but pro-vaccination people will downvote the official data. Edit: ...as the parent comment was downvoted when I wrote this
  - manwe150 5y ago
    The page also shows that vaccinated people are far less likely to be in the ICU, which is an even more important metric.
    - dukeofdoom 5y ago
      This is the only metric still left, which ma be just time delayed. Also people in ICU with covid may not be the same thing as people in ICU because of covid. It may likely just be that very sick people in hospitals are refusing the vaccine and catching it. Hospitals are confined spaces that aid in transmission of all kinds of diseases. The difference is 40 people out of a population of 14.5 million. So small it could literally be people with terminal diseases catching covid on their death beds. To use this to advocate for any preventative effect in a healthy individual in the general population would be misleading. Very likely the difference is just sampling bias.
      - Spooky23 5y ago
        It could be many things. The simple explanation, that getting a vaccination that prevents or reduces the impact of a disease makes more sense. To the point that it’s a no-brainer. It’s a moot point now, as this phase of the pandemic is played out. People embraced fear, ignorance and doubt in the name of freedom. Many will needlessly suffer as a result.

lazyjones 5y ago

Official numbers for Europe are available at https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ They have graphs with excess deaths by age groups and you can see that 2021 looks worse than 2020, with a noticeable upwards trend starting around week 16 of 2021.

progfix 5y ago
Did you confuse 2020 with 2021? Because I can't find any other upwards around week 16 than tbe one in 2020.
- lazyjones 5y ago
  No. Scroll down to "Excess mortality", look at 15-44 and 45-64 years graphs. The light blue line is 2021. It shows an upward trend that goes way beyond the ranges for 2020 and 2019.

Developerx 5y ago

[flagged]

sudosysgen 5y ago
We can look at stats. The US isn't the only country with vaccines.
- Developerx 5y ago
  Stat from who? Are you sure you can believe the official stats and so called opendata? I'm not
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    So you don't trust any data from any country in the world?
    - Developerx 5y ago
- nu11ptr 5y ago
  There are statisticians who have made such claims by modeling many highly vaccinated countries. I am not claiming they are right or wrong, but there are people who claim they have found this signal in the data using statistical methods.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Link?
    - Developerx 5y ago

halfjoking 5y ago

You’re right - I’m anti-vaxx when it comes to mRNA vaccines and I often link to mainstream articles like this: https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-thousands-more-usual-dying-170117640.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-thousands-more-usual-dyi... Mainstream articles are biased with the spin of the situation but the facts are there. It goes over some causes of deaths - mostly heart/clotting issues, exactly what you’d expect from the vaxx. That’s why we call it the “clot-shot” In England people who took the vaxx are twice as likely to die as those who don’t: https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adults-under-60 https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adult... If you want an opposing view of that data read this fact-check: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-britain-idUSL1N2RP28I https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-britai... Notice how they don’t deny the statistic. They just say it’s taken “out of context” because covid deaths, and vaccines save lives. No matter how they spin it they can’t deny government data says vaccinated 18-59 are much more likely to die. That’s a fact, even though it’s marked as false by Reuters.

jack_squat 5y ago
Doesn't that all make sense? I'm not sure what the issue is here. The statistic that vaccinated people 18-59 are dying at twice the rate presumably true, so of course the reuters article doesn't deny it. The Reuters article presents a totally believable explanation, which is also in the original article's comments. What they are saying is that this can be true for the age range 18-59, but simultaneously not be true for any specific age brackets within that range. This is called Simpson's paradox. The explanation is that vaccination rates are higher among the elderly than among the young, and that the elderly have a higher baseline rate of death, and the Reuters article breaks out the numbers to demonstrate this. What's the big mystery exactly? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
- halfjoking 5y ago
  Yes that explanation is plausible. I replied to another comment below what I take away from that statistic… mainly that vaccine mandates are BS given other factors such as age has such an impact on mortality and spread.