3 ms·

Fentanyl factor did not start in March of 2020.

austinkhale 5y ago
2020 and 2021 both saw a sharp rise in fentanyl seizures at the border. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/fentanyl-seizures-u-s-southern-border-rise-dramatically-n1272676 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/fentanyl-seizur...
- whatever1 5y ago
  Not sure what fentanyl death rates did in a particular neighborhood in the US, what I know is that CDC reported 100k overdose deaths /year for 2020-2021. That pales in comparison to the 600k excess deaths we had in the first 9 months of the pandemic in the US. Specially if you consider that the overdose deaths did not suddenly appear in 2020.
  - oneoff786 5y ago
    Numbers are tricky though. There’s much less than 100k covid deaths for those under 50. Whereas I would guess that’s the lion share of opioid deaths. 50-64 is another weird inflection point. It’s totally possible for covid to kill 6x as many people but for opioids to have a bigger impact of life expectancy. One 20 year old death is only offset by 60 or so 80 year old deaths.
- wayoutthere 5y ago
  That’s simply because fentanyl is cheap enough that the drug syndicates in the golden triangle are flooding the market with it. It’s so cheap to produce in industrial quantities using perfectly legal, easily acquired industrial chemicals that they really don’t care how many shipments get seized because a small amount can be cut into a whole lot of sellable product, so they don’t try as hard to smuggle it in.
- bsza 5y ago
  You should remove markdown syntax from that link, it messes it up.
  - austinkhale 5y ago
    Thank you. Done.
deepnotderp 5y ago
Social isolation is well known to probably be the number one factor driving drug abuse (see eg Rat park experiments). Lockdowns, no school, etc… In teenagers this has already caused a spike in mental illnesses.
nick__m 5y ago
Too many fentanyl shipments got sized in 2020, so they partially switched to the 100x more potent (and lethal) carfentanyl. Since it's so powerful a slightly badly mixed product that would have been safe-ish using fentanyl become assuredly lethal with carfentanyl. Have a look at the picture on this page to see how much lethal it is : https://www.bioonesantaclarita.com/biohazard-and-crime-scene-cleanup-solutions/fentanyl-and-carfentanil-dealing-with-the-most-deadly-synthetic-opioids-1612063222363.html https://www.bioonesantaclarita.com/biohazard-and-crime-scene...

2020 and 2021 both saw a sharp rise in fentanyl seizures at the border. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/fentanyl-seizures-u-s-southern-border-rise-dramatically-n1272676 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/fentanyl-seizur...

whatever1 5y ago
Not sure what fentanyl death rates did in a particular neighborhood in the US, what I know is that CDC reported 100k overdose deaths /year for 2020-2021. That pales in comparison to the 600k excess deaths we had in the first 9 months of the pandemic in the US. Specially if you consider that the overdose deaths did not suddenly appear in 2020.
- oneoff786 5y ago
  Numbers are tricky though. There’s much less than 100k covid deaths for those under 50. Whereas I would guess that’s the lion share of opioid deaths. 50-64 is another weird inflection point. It’s totally possible for covid to kill 6x as many people but for opioids to have a bigger impact of life expectancy. One 20 year old death is only offset by 60 or so 80 year old deaths.
wayoutthere 5y ago
That’s simply because fentanyl is cheap enough that the drug syndicates in the golden triangle are flooding the market with it. It’s so cheap to produce in industrial quantities using perfectly legal, easily acquired industrial chemicals that they really don’t care how many shipments get seized because a small amount can be cut into a whole lot of sellable product, so they don’t try as hard to smuggle it in.
bsza 5y ago
You should remove markdown syntax from that link, it messes it up.
- austinkhale 5y ago
  Thank you. Done.

deepnotderp 5y ago

Social isolation is well known to probably be the number one factor driving drug abuse (see eg Rat park experiments). Lockdowns, no school, etc… In teenagers this has already caused a spike in mental illnesses.

nick__m 5y ago

Too many fentanyl shipments got sized in 2020, so they partially switched to the 100x more potent (and lethal) carfentanyl. Since it's so powerful a slightly badly mixed product that would have been safe-ish using fentanyl become assuredly lethal with carfentanyl. Have a look at the picture on this page to see how much lethal it is : https://www.bioonesantaclarita.com/biohazard-and-crime-scene-cleanup-solutions/fentanyl-and-carfentanil-dealing-with-the-most-deadly-synthetic-opioids-1612063222363.html https://www.bioonesantaclarita.com/biohazard-and-crime-scene...