4 ms·

I wonder what the fentanyl factor is.

by agmsr 5y ago

steelstraw 5y ago
It was by far the top cause of death for 18 to 45 year olds in 2020 and 2021. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fentanyl-overdose-death/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fentanyl-overdose-death/
whatever1 5y ago
Fentanyl factor did not start in March of 2020.
- austinkhale 5y ago
  2020 and 2021 both saw a sharp rise in fentanyl seizures at the border. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/fentanyl-seizures-u-s-southern-border-rise-dramatically-n1272676 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/fentanyl-seizur...
  - whatever1 5y ago
    Not sure what fentanyl death rates did in a particular neighborhood in the US, what I know is that CDC reported 100k overdose deaths /year for 2020-2021. That pales in comparison to the 600k excess deaths we had in the first 9 months of the pandemic in the US. Specially if you consider that the overdose deaths did not suddenly appear in 2020.
    - oneoff786 5y ago
      Numbers are tricky though. There’s much less than 100k covid deaths for those under 50. Whereas I would guess that’s the lion share of opioid deaths. 50-64 is another weird inflection point. It’s totally possible for covid to kill 6x as many people but for opioids to have a bigger impact of life expectancy. One 20 year old death is only offset by 60 or so 80 year old deaths.
  - wayoutthere 5y ago
    That’s simply because fentanyl is cheap enough that the drug syndicates in the golden triangle are flooding the market with it. It’s so cheap to produce in industrial quantities using perfectly legal, easily acquired industrial chemicals that they really don’t care how many shipments get seized because a small amount can be cut into a whole lot of sellable product, so they don’t try as hard to smuggle it in.
  - bsza 5y ago
    You should remove markdown syntax from that link, it messes it up.
    - austinkhale 5y ago
      Thank you. Done.
- deepnotderp 5y ago
  Social isolation is well known to probably be the number one factor driving drug abuse (see eg Rat park experiments). Lockdowns, no school, etc… In teenagers this has already caused a spike in mental illnesses.
- nick__m 5y ago
  Too many fentanyl shipments got sized in 2020, so they partially switched to the 100x more potent (and lethal) carfentanyl. Since it's so powerful a slightly badly mixed product that would have been safe-ish using fentanyl become assuredly lethal with carfentanyl. Have a look at the picture on this page to see how much lethal it is : https://www.bioonesantaclarita.com/biohazard-and-crime-scene-cleanup-solutions/fentanyl-and-carfentanil-dealing-with-the-most-deadly-synthetic-opioids-1612063222363.html https://www.bioonesantaclarita.com/biohazard-and-crime-scene...
austinkhale 5y ago
Fentanyl, P2P meth, and the world being turned upside down all at the same time was really a bad combo.
- jfim 5y ago
  > P2P meth For those confused by the P2P acronym as I was, it's apparently a synthesis route that was developed in response to the crackdowns on OTC ephedrine products. It's apparently a lot more pure than the older stuff, at least according to https://dynomight.net/p2p-meth/ https://dynomight.net/p2p-meth/
  - austinkhale 5y ago
    The Atlantic wrote a really good deep dive piece into the differences recently. Highly recommend reading through it. There are a lot of unknowns about the long term consequences. Anecdotally, people close to me in the mental health industry are really distraught about it. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/11/the-new-meth/620174/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/11/the-new...
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - martinpw 5y ago
      Book by the same author here https://www.amazon.com/Least-Us-Tales-America-Fentanyl/dp/1635574358 https://www.amazon.com/Least-Us-Tales-America-Fentanyl/dp/16... It's a devastating read.
    - refurb 5y ago
      It’s an interesting theory but the meth from the 1970’s was all P2P and we didn’t see the same impact.
      - diogenescynic 5y ago
        It’s cheaper now and way more socially acceptable (decriminalized) to use meth in public (at least in west coast states). My dad was a meth user and only got clean when he was incarcerated. I bet there are thousands who just spiral downward further and further until they just die because now there are no consequences or barriers or repercussions to stop this behavior. Not only that, we incentivize and subsidize drug use in some cities. San Francisco has an “adult” support program that gives homeless people a debit card which they can withdraw cash from. I guarantee 90% of that cash is spent on fentanyl and meth. They give out dozens of needles at a time (once saw one dude with literally 300-500 needles) to drug users but not to diabetics. We have really skewed/inverted our priorities.
jeffbee 5y ago
Just idly wondering about information readily available from primary sources (CDC WISQARS database) does not advance the conversation.
- agmsr 5y ago
  I was referring to the Indiana life insurance company’s data, which doesn’t seem to be broken out.
lazyjones 5y ago
It's the same here in Europe, where nobody talks about Fentanyl.

I wonder what the fentanyl factor is.

by agmsr 5y ago

I wonder what the fentanyl factor is.

It was by far the top cause of death for 18 to 45 year olds in 2020 and 2021. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fentanyl-overdose-death/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fentanyl-overdose-death/

whatever1 5y ago

Fentanyl factor did not start in March of 2020.

austinkhale 5y ago
2020 and 2021 both saw a sharp rise in fentanyl seizures at the border. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/fentanyl-seizures-u-s-southern-border-rise-dramatically-n1272676 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/fentanyl-seizur...
- whatever1 5y ago
  Not sure what fentanyl death rates did in a particular neighborhood in the US, what I know is that CDC reported 100k overdose deaths /year for 2020-2021. That pales in comparison to the 600k excess deaths we had in the first 9 months of the pandemic in the US. Specially if you consider that the overdose deaths did not suddenly appear in 2020.
  - oneoff786 5y ago
    Numbers are tricky though. There’s much less than 100k covid deaths for those under 50. Whereas I would guess that’s the lion share of opioid deaths. 50-64 is another weird inflection point. It’s totally possible for covid to kill 6x as many people but for opioids to have a bigger impact of life expectancy. One 20 year old death is only offset by 60 or so 80 year old deaths.
- wayoutthere 5y ago
  That’s simply because fentanyl is cheap enough that the drug syndicates in the golden triangle are flooding the market with it. It’s so cheap to produce in industrial quantities using perfectly legal, easily acquired industrial chemicals that they really don’t care how many shipments get seized because a small amount can be cut into a whole lot of sellable product, so they don’t try as hard to smuggle it in.
- bsza 5y ago
  You should remove markdown syntax from that link, it messes it up.
  - austinkhale 5y ago
    Thank you. Done.
deepnotderp 5y ago
Social isolation is well known to probably be the number one factor driving drug abuse (see eg Rat park experiments). Lockdowns, no school, etc… In teenagers this has already caused a spike in mental illnesses.
nick__m 5y ago
Too many fentanyl shipments got sized in 2020, so they partially switched to the 100x more potent (and lethal) carfentanyl. Since it's so powerful a slightly badly mixed product that would have been safe-ish using fentanyl become assuredly lethal with carfentanyl. Have a look at the picture on this page to see how much lethal it is : https://www.bioonesantaclarita.com/biohazard-and-crime-scene-cleanup-solutions/fentanyl-and-carfentanil-dealing-with-the-most-deadly-synthetic-opioids-1612063222363.html https://www.bioonesantaclarita.com/biohazard-and-crime-scene...

austinkhale 5y ago

Fentanyl, P2P meth, and the world being turned upside down all at the same time was really a bad combo.

jfim 5y ago
> P2P meth For those confused by the P2P acronym as I was, it's apparently a synthesis route that was developed in response to the crackdowns on OTC ephedrine products. It's apparently a lot more pure than the older stuff, at least according to https://dynomight.net/p2p-meth/ https://dynomight.net/p2p-meth/
- austinkhale 5y ago
  The Atlantic wrote a really good deep dive piece into the differences recently. Highly recommend reading through it. There are a lot of unknowns about the long term consequences. Anecdotally, people close to me in the mental health industry are really distraught about it. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/11/the-new-meth/620174/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/11/the-new...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - martinpw 5y ago
    Book by the same author here https://www.amazon.com/Least-Us-Tales-America-Fentanyl/dp/1635574358 https://www.amazon.com/Least-Us-Tales-America-Fentanyl/dp/16... It's a devastating read.
  - refurb 5y ago
    It’s an interesting theory but the meth from the 1970’s was all P2P and we didn’t see the same impact.
    - diogenescynic 5y ago
      It’s cheaper now and way more socially acceptable (decriminalized) to use meth in public (at least in west coast states). My dad was a meth user and only got clean when he was incarcerated. I bet there are thousands who just spiral downward further and further until they just die because now there are no consequences or barriers or repercussions to stop this behavior. Not only that, we incentivize and subsidize drug use in some cities. San Francisco has an “adult” support program that gives homeless people a debit card which they can withdraw cash from. I guarantee 90% of that cash is spent on fentanyl and meth. They give out dozens of needles at a time (once saw one dude with literally 300-500 needles) to drug users but not to diabetics. We have really skewed/inverted our priorities.

jeffbee 5y ago

Just idly wondering about information readily available from primary sources (CDC WISQARS database) does not advance the conversation.

agmsr 5y ago
I was referring to the Indiana life insurance company’s data, which doesn’t seem to be broken out.

lazyjones 5y ago

It's the same here in Europe, where nobody talks about Fentanyl.