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> * Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years. Didn't the US inflation rate went up to around 6% du

by fivea 5y ago

> * Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years. Didn't the US inflation rate went up to around 6% during 2021? Even though that's quite the hike, I wouldn't classify 6% or even 7% as "high single digits/low double digits", unless the definition of "high single digits" is now "greater than 5%" > * Stocks continue to rise as a function of inflation. The S&P500 continued to grow constantly as it has been doing for the past decade. > * Full self drivering cars are no closer. Is this really a prediction? > * Reddit continues to decline in quality but no clear alternative emerges. Is reddit really in decline, though? Doesn't seem like it. In fact, arguably things improved a lot in the past year. > * Large chance of abnormal oil price volatility. Does this actually mean anything? Also, there was a price drop at the start of the year due to a drop in demand (lockdowns and all) and since then price returned to the same point it was last year. Doesn't sound like it's either abnormal or volatile.

xchaotic 5y ago
I can address the point about oil. We seem to have reached peak oil already so the expectation is for the price of oil to go down. Prices going up suggest market manipulation by squeezing supply by opec etc.
cinntaile 5y ago
To add, he made a lot of other predictions as well that don't seem to have panned out.
aaomidi 5y ago
If you count housing, which the official US figures don't, we are in high single digits area.
- warlog 5y ago
  And if you count building supplies and groceries, it's north of 10. The numbers are cooked, and the rate of cooking is increasing.
  - cma 5y ago
    To the extent building supplies increase rent (new housing is a small portion of overall housing, so 2x spikes up and down in one component's price doesn't drive rent up 2x in one year), it is reflected. Groceries are included in CPI.
- cma 5y ago
  They count housing through rent, to avoid speculative asset pricing stuff.
pumnikol 5y ago
>Is reddit really in decline, though? Doesn't seem like it. In fact, arguably things improved a lot in the past year. That depends on your quality metrics, and, of course, personal taste. To me, the continuous branching off of more and more arcane subreddits means two things: - Your own voice bears more weight as the new arena is smaller at its inception - The overall quality of discussions is getting blander as not every tiny niche sub can keep ace thinkers So it appears that you can't have it both ways - fostering a great discussion atmosphere where, at the same time, every voice will be equally considered. >Doesn't sound like it's either abnormal or volatile. The WTI price drop was the 3rd largest in 20 years and briefly saw prices return to a level from 18 years ago. I couldn't have predicted that.
iopq 5y ago
A drop and going back up is the definition of volatility. If it just dropped slowly or went up slowly the volatility would be low

by fivea 5y ago

xchaotic 5y ago

I can address the point about oil. We seem to have reached peak oil already so the expectation is for the price of oil to go down. Prices going up suggest market manipulation by squeezing supply by opec etc.

cinntaile 5y ago

To add, he made a lot of other predictions as well that don't seem to have panned out.

aaomidi 5y ago

If you count housing, which the official US figures don't, we are in high single digits area.

warlog 5y ago
And if you count building supplies and groceries, it's north of 10. The numbers are cooked, and the rate of cooking is increasing.
- cma 5y ago
  To the extent building supplies increase rent (new housing is a small portion of overall housing, so 2x spikes up and down in one component's price doesn't drive rent up 2x in one year), it is reflected. Groceries are included in CPI.
cma 5y ago
They count housing through rent, to avoid speculative asset pricing stuff.

pumnikol 5y ago

>Is reddit really in decline, though? Doesn't seem like it. In fact, arguably things improved a lot in the past year. That depends on your quality metrics, and, of course, personal taste. To me, the continuous branching off of more and more arcane subreddits means two things: - Your own voice bears more weight as the new arena is smaller at its inception - The overall quality of discussions is getting blander as not every tiny niche sub can keep ace thinkers So it appears that you can't have it both ways - fostering a great discussion atmosphere where, at the same time, every voice will be equally considered. >Doesn't sound like it's either abnormal or volatile. The WTI price drop was the 3rd largest in 20 years and briefly saw prices return to a level from 18 years ago. I couldn't have predicted that.

iopq 5y ago

A drop and going back up is the definition of volatility. If it just dropped slowly or went up slowly the volatility would be low