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This sort of exercise tends to have a mix bag of successful predictions (infinite monkeys typing Shakespeare and all) but it surprised me that the rate of succe

by fivea 5y ago

This sort of exercise tends to have a mix bag of successful predictions (infinite monkeys typing Shakespeare and all) but it surprised me that the rate of successful predictions in that thread is so close to 0%.

wodenokoto 5y ago
In their defense, likely predictions are boring. For example who cares if you predict that … - Google will continue to be the top search engine - Apple will release a new iPhone - Xi Jinping will continue as president - Biden will continue as president
- f6v 5y ago
  Biden will continue calling his second the president.
- reallifez4 5y ago
iopq 5y ago
> * Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years. > * Stocks continue to rise as a function of inflation. > * Full self drivering cars are no closer. > * Reddit continues to decline in quality but no clear alternative emerges. > * Large chance of abnormal oil price volatility. Seems like this guy got a lot of them right
- fivea 5y ago
  > * Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years. Didn't the US inflation rate went up to around 6% during 2021? Even though that's quite the hike, I wouldn't classify 6% or even 7% as "high single digits/low double digits", unless the definition of "high single digits" is now "greater than 5%" > * Stocks continue to rise as a function of inflation. The S&P500 continued to grow constantly as it has been doing for the past decade. > * Full self drivering cars are no closer. Is this really a prediction? > * Reddit continues to decline in quality but no clear alternative emerges. Is reddit really in decline, though? Doesn't seem like it. In fact, arguably things improved a lot in the past year. > * Large chance of abnormal oil price volatility. Does this actually mean anything? Also, there was a price drop at the start of the year due to a drop in demand (lockdowns and all) and since then price returned to the same point it was last year. Doesn't sound like it's either abnormal or volatile.
  - xchaotic 5y ago
    I can address the point about oil. We seem to have reached peak oil already so the expectation is for the price of oil to go down. Prices going up suggest market manipulation by squeezing supply by opec etc.
  - cinntaile 5y ago
    To add, he made a lot of other predictions as well that don't seem to have panned out.
  - aaomidi 5y ago
    If you count housing, which the official US figures don't, we are in high single digits area.
    - warlog 5y ago
      And if you count building supplies and groceries, it's north of 10. The numbers are cooked, and the rate of cooking is increasing.
      - cma 5y ago
        To the extent building supplies increase rent (new housing is a small portion of overall housing, so 2x spikes up and down in one component's price doesn't drive rent up 2x in one year), it is reflected. Groceries are included in CPI.
    - cma 5y ago
      They count housing through rent, to avoid speculative asset pricing stuff.
  - pumnikol 5y ago
    >Is reddit really in decline, though? Doesn't seem like it. In fact, arguably things improved a lot in the past year. That depends on your quality metrics, and, of course, personal taste. To me, the continuous branching off of more and more arcane subreddits means two things: - Your own voice bears more weight as the new arena is smaller at its inception - The overall quality of discussions is getting blander as not every tiny niche sub can keep ace thinkers So it appears that you can't have it both ways - fostering a great discussion atmosphere where, at the same time, every voice will be equally considered. >Doesn't sound like it's either abnormal or volatile. The WTI price drop was the 3rd largest in 20 years and briefly saw prices return to a level from 18 years ago. I couldn't have predicted that.
Gregam3 5y ago
I found this too, I checked the top posts and it seemed as people were almost unanimously incorrect. These were likely "good" predictions too, it just shows how much of it is guesswork I suppose.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

by fivea 5y ago

wodenokoto 5y ago

In their defense, likely predictions are boring. For example who cares if you predict that … - Google will continue to be the top search engine - Apple will release a new iPhone - Xi Jinping will continue as president - Biden will continue as president

f6v 5y ago
Biden will continue calling his second the president.
reallifez4 5y ago

iopq 5y ago

> * Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years. > * Stocks continue to rise as a function of inflation. > * Full self drivering cars are no closer. > * Reddit continues to decline in quality but no clear alternative emerges. > * Large chance of abnormal oil price volatility. Seems like this guy got a lot of them right

fivea 5y ago
> * Accelerating inflation perhaps leading high single digits low double digits in the next several years. Didn't the US inflation rate went up to around 6% during 2021? Even though that's quite the hike, I wouldn't classify 6% or even 7% as "high single digits/low double digits", unless the definition of "high single digits" is now "greater than 5%" > * Stocks continue to rise as a function of inflation. The S&P500 continued to grow constantly as it has been doing for the past decade. > * Full self drivering cars are no closer. Is this really a prediction? > * Reddit continues to decline in quality but no clear alternative emerges. Is reddit really in decline, though? Doesn't seem like it. In fact, arguably things improved a lot in the past year. > * Large chance of abnormal oil price volatility. Does this actually mean anything? Also, there was a price drop at the start of the year due to a drop in demand (lockdowns and all) and since then price returned to the same point it was last year. Doesn't sound like it's either abnormal or volatile.
- xchaotic 5y ago
  I can address the point about oil. We seem to have reached peak oil already so the expectation is for the price of oil to go down. Prices going up suggest market manipulation by squeezing supply by opec etc.
- cinntaile 5y ago
  To add, he made a lot of other predictions as well that don't seem to have panned out.
- aaomidi 5y ago
  If you count housing, which the official US figures don't, we are in high single digits area.
  - warlog 5y ago
    And if you count building supplies and groceries, it's north of 10. The numbers are cooked, and the rate of cooking is increasing.
    - cma 5y ago
      To the extent building supplies increase rent (new housing is a small portion of overall housing, so 2x spikes up and down in one component's price doesn't drive rent up 2x in one year), it is reflected. Groceries are included in CPI.
  - cma 5y ago
    They count housing through rent, to avoid speculative asset pricing stuff.
- pumnikol 5y ago
  >Is reddit really in decline, though? Doesn't seem like it. In fact, arguably things improved a lot in the past year. That depends on your quality metrics, and, of course, personal taste. To me, the continuous branching off of more and more arcane subreddits means two things: - Your own voice bears more weight as the new arena is smaller at its inception - The overall quality of discussions is getting blander as not every tiny niche sub can keep ace thinkers So it appears that you can't have it both ways - fostering a great discussion atmosphere where, at the same time, every voice will be equally considered. >Doesn't sound like it's either abnormal or volatile. The WTI price drop was the 3rd largest in 20 years and briefly saw prices return to a level from 18 years ago. I couldn't have predicted that.

Gregam3 5y ago

I found this too, I checked the top posts and it seemed as people were almost unanimously incorrect. These were likely "good" predictions too, it just shows how much of it is guesswork I suppose.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]