4 ms·

I hope this doesn't turn into a Grouponesque company and get slammed for cashing out while not being profitable.

by suking 15y ago

shoham 15y ago
This doesn't seem like a totally unfair valuation to me.
- 0x12 15y ago
  8 billion is a lot of future profits.
  - shoham 15y ago
    Well, you'd need 400 Million on profit for a fair $8 Billion valuation (at 20-1 P/E). I don't know what Twitter's current ad revenue is, but I think that having sponsored tweets is a good idea, as long as I don't get emails from Twitter featuring sponsored Tweets (and if sponsored Tweets are something everyone can buy). Having ads mesh in with the main content of your site is, i believe a winning formula (this has been a great is part of Google's success). I think that $8 Billion at this point is more reasonable than lets say $80 Billion at this point for Facebook, but we shall see.
- suking 15y ago
  More about $400 going to insiders...
- jpdoctor 15y ago
  > This doesn't seem like a totally unfair valuation to me. Based on what calculation?
  - shoham 15y ago
    I've got to imagine that they can parlay their sponsored Tweet concept into a mult-billion dollar a year revenue stream. If not, forget it, but I actually like the concept of sponsored Tweets (from an advertiser's perspective, I like that the content of the ad will look a lot like the main focus of the site -- regular Tweets.) I don't know what kind of revenue Twitter has right now, but if they can get anywhere near $2 Billion a year (with lets say a 25% margin), then at a 20-1 P/E that would be a $10 Billion valuation. Only time will tell, Twitter may be a fad, but the price seems more reasonable to me than Facebook at $80 Billion.
    - jpdoctor 15y ago
      > I've got to imagine that they can parlay their sponsored Tweet concept into a mult-billion dollar a year revenue stream. It's worth noting that the ultimate basis of the valuation calc is based on what you "imagine".
      - shoham 15y ago
        This just seems more reasonable to me than an $80 Billion Facebook price tag. I'm not actually a big Twitter fan, but it's already an advertising device, so to me it makes sense to have some paid ads as well -- and I like ads that are similar in look to core content (from a business perspective I like this...). Yes, my rationale is more based on sense than on any revenue data as Twitter doesn't have much revenue, and doesn't disclose anyway. Again I like that their ads are going to look like their core content (I think of Adwords, but based on user interest, instead of intent).

I hope this doesn't turn into a Grouponesque company and get slammed for cashing out while not being profitable.

by suking 15y ago

I hope this doesn't turn into a Grouponesque company and get slammed for cashing out while not being profitable.

shoham 15y ago

This doesn't seem like a totally unfair valuation to me.

0x12 15y ago
8 billion is a lot of future profits.
- shoham 15y ago
  Well, you'd need 400 Million on profit for a fair $8 Billion valuation (at 20-1 P/E). I don't know what Twitter's current ad revenue is, but I think that having sponsored tweets is a good idea, as long as I don't get emails from Twitter featuring sponsored Tweets (and if sponsored Tweets are something everyone can buy). Having ads mesh in with the main content of your site is, i believe a winning formula (this has been a great is part of Google's success). I think that $8 Billion at this point is more reasonable than lets say $80 Billion at this point for Facebook, but we shall see.
suking 15y ago
More about $400 going to insiders...
jpdoctor 15y ago
> This doesn't seem like a totally unfair valuation to me. Based on what calculation?
- shoham 15y ago
  I've got to imagine that they can parlay their sponsored Tweet concept into a mult-billion dollar a year revenue stream. If not, forget it, but I actually like the concept of sponsored Tweets (from an advertiser's perspective, I like that the content of the ad will look a lot like the main focus of the site -- regular Tweets.) I don't know what kind of revenue Twitter has right now, but if they can get anywhere near $2 Billion a year (with lets say a 25% margin), then at a 20-1 P/E that would be a $10 Billion valuation. Only time will tell, Twitter may be a fad, but the price seems more reasonable to me than Facebook at $80 Billion.
  - jpdoctor 15y ago
    > I've got to imagine that they can parlay their sponsored Tweet concept into a mult-billion dollar a year revenue stream. It's worth noting that the ultimate basis of the valuation calc is based on what you "imagine".
    - shoham 15y ago
      This just seems more reasonable to me than an $80 Billion Facebook price tag. I'm not actually a big Twitter fan, but it's already an advertising device, so to me it makes sense to have some paid ads as well -- and I like ads that are similar in look to core content (from a business perspective I like this...). Yes, my rationale is more based on sense than on any revenue data as Twitter doesn't have much revenue, and doesn't disclose anyway. Again I like that their ads are going to look like their core content (I think of Adwords, but based on user interest, instead of intent).