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You haven't been paying attention, I suppose. The cost per watt of solar panels continues to drop exponentially, as optimizations continue and production contin

You haven't been paying attention, I suppose. The cost per watt of solar panels continues to drop exponentially, as optimizations continue and production continues to scale up. Breakthrough research announcements like this happen often, and only a handful of such announcements will ever make it to production. But improvements certainly /are/ making it into production, and lowering LCOE steadily. Here's an example graph, with both solar and battery costs: https://greentechlead.com/renewable-energy/cost-for-onshore-wind-solar-and-battery-storage-dipped-bnef-35985 https://greentechlead.com/renewable-energy/cost-for-onshore-... And compared to fossil fuels: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_energy#/media/File:20201019_Levelized_Cost_of_Energy_(LCOE,_Lazard)_-_renewable_energy.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_energy#/medi... (LOTS of people think about renewable prices as they were ten years ago instead of where they are now or where they may be in five years. This means lots of people simply have wrong priors about the relative cost of different energy sources. This is expected: People don't intuitively adapt to exponential change.)

fooblaster 5y ago
The graphs you mentioned are about cost per watt, an important metric, but not panle conversion efficiency.
jacquesm 5y ago
I've been paying excellent attention, the panel efficiency for the various crystal lattices and layering combinations has hardly moved in the last decade. A little bit here, a little bit there. Sure the price has come down, but that wasn't what this was about. Also, I think the tone of your comment could be a lot better than it is.
- sdenton4 5y ago
  Here's some progression of panel efficiency over time: https://news.energysage.com/solar-panel-efficiency-cost-over-time/ https://news.energysage.com/solar-panel-efficiency-cost-over... I would suggest it's a matter of "nothing changes in a year but everything changes in a decade." Partial apologies for the tone; I'm personally kinda sick of Internet comments crapping on people's work by default.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    The part that matters is that 'run of the mill' monocrystalline solar panels, not exotic ones such as triple junction and other very expensive cells have been roughly steady over the last decade or so at 20% give or take, with their polycrystalline brethren doing a slightly worse. There are prototypes and special application cells that do much better than that, but they are typically priced in such a way that you would never use them in a regular domestic application. But for a satellite or something else where price isn't your first consideration (but for instance weight is) they may well make good sense. FWIW I have been following the renewables scene very closely for two decades, have built a house on solar and wind power in Canada and am in the process of converting a house here in NL to as close to self sufficient as I can make it without rebuilding it from the ground up.
    - earleybird 5y ago
      I, for one, would be very interested in any write up on your experiences, esp wrt solar. I'm still trying to sort out solar hot water vs panels. We have a fairly high hot water consumption rate. An interesting experiment in Alberta - http://www.dlsc.ca/ http://www.dlsc.ca/
      - danans 5y ago
        > I'm still trying to sort out solar hot water vs panel. We have a fairly high hot water consumption rate. Every situation is different, but generally speaking it makes more sense these days to install ever cheaper PV rather than solar water heating and pair that with a heat pump water heater, at least in typical grid connected scenarios. Perhaps the considerations are different for full off grid setups though.
        jacquesm 5y ago
        This is correct and roughly the installation that I'm planning.
        5y ago

fooblaster 5y ago

The graphs you mentioned are about cost per watt, an important metric, but not panle conversion efficiency.

jacquesm 5y ago

I've been paying excellent attention, the panel efficiency for the various crystal lattices and layering combinations has hardly moved in the last decade. A little bit here, a little bit there. Sure the price has come down, but that wasn't what this was about. Also, I think the tone of your comment could be a lot better than it is.

sdenton4 5y ago
Here's some progression of panel efficiency over time: https://news.energysage.com/solar-panel-efficiency-cost-over-time/ https://news.energysage.com/solar-panel-efficiency-cost-over... I would suggest it's a matter of "nothing changes in a year but everything changes in a decade." Partial apologies for the tone; I'm personally kinda sick of Internet comments crapping on people's work by default.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  The part that matters is that 'run of the mill' monocrystalline solar panels, not exotic ones such as triple junction and other very expensive cells have been roughly steady over the last decade or so at 20% give or take, with their polycrystalline brethren doing a slightly worse. There are prototypes and special application cells that do much better than that, but they are typically priced in such a way that you would never use them in a regular domestic application. But for a satellite or something else where price isn't your first consideration (but for instance weight is) they may well make good sense. FWIW I have been following the renewables scene very closely for two decades, have built a house on solar and wind power in Canada and am in the process of converting a house here in NL to as close to self sufficient as I can make it without rebuilding it from the ground up.
  - earleybird 5y ago
    I, for one, would be very interested in any write up on your experiences, esp wrt solar. I'm still trying to sort out solar hot water vs panels. We have a fairly high hot water consumption rate. An interesting experiment in Alberta - http://www.dlsc.ca/ http://www.dlsc.ca/
    - danans 5y ago
      > I'm still trying to sort out solar hot water vs panel. We have a fairly high hot water consumption rate. Every situation is different, but generally speaking it makes more sense these days to install ever cheaper PV rather than solar water heating and pair that with a heat pump water heater, at least in typical grid connected scenarios. Perhaps the considerations are different for full off grid setups though.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        This is correct and roughly the installation that I'm planning.
        5y ago