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I disagree with you on Hong Kong (I m now a voting citizen, for what it's worth - not much). The problems in Hong Kong didnt start 2 years ago, they started wh

I disagree with you on Hong Kong (I m now a voting citizen, for what it's worth - not much). The problems in Hong Kong didnt start 2 years ago, they started when the UK came in, and we inherit a difficulty I know well where I come from (Europe, full of Corsica, Basque Country, Northern Ireland, Brittany, Catalonia and so on). Beijing reacts like we all reacted 2 centuries ago, and will slowly learn to deal with it, especially if they invade Taiwan and have to stop killing because unlike Xinjiang there's nothing to mine there and only cost cost cost to maintain an aggressive colony that builds processors as only output of value. I think the CCP is no more evil than Napoleon, and ask a Frenchman today and he'll rave about what he did that transformed eventually the country, at the cost of 200k+ young people's lives to invade Russia, if you can believe it. Things progress and China has to experience it for themselves, sadly. There's no shortcuts that I know of for such a big place.

petre 5y ago
Except what was deemed acceptable two centuries ago is no longer acceptable now. Napooleon also abolished the Spanish Inquisition. Invading Russia was always a stupid move.
emptysongglass 5y ago
> ... only cost cost cost to maintain an aggressive colony that builds processors as only output of value. Just to correct you here, the only aggressive country between these two is the Chinese side, which is "buzzing" Taiwanese airspace daily to keep them mobilized and exhausted and has built a full scale replica of central Taipei [1] in which the PLA does drills simulating its capture. That's not peaceful, those are the heights of aggression. If the CCP wants peace, they need to start showing it with action. [1] https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china-suggests-mock-invasion-of-taiwan/ https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china...
- tsimionescu 5y ago
  I think the GP was perfectly in line with what you're saying. They seemed to me to suggest that China will eventually invade Taiwan, and learn the hard way how bad that works out in the long run, and how costly this type of aggression is - just like the European empires learned for themselves from their own experience some few hundreds of years ago.
  - secondaryacct 5y ago
    Yes, ofc I meant the aggressivity would come after they invade Taiwan and transform it into a colony. My English is sometimes awkward but the British could have switched to French when we invaded them. Sadly we all learned the hard way France couldnt maintain... an "aggressive colony" in England either hehehe As a half-related aside, I think the solution is what we eventually did with the EU, a mutually assured dependency that would force everyone to keep the peace we longed for millenia, and I think the British forgot a bit too fast the vain inter massacres our ancestors rushed into at each disagreement when they yelled for Brexit to give them back their "independence". Wish China could see it but afraid they have to try every other stupid way first :( Praying for the British and us our fishing disagreements and submarines rifraf dont escalate. Could Taiwan compromise with a soft border economic Union called the Greater China Union that would make everyone cool down ? Meh.
    - cema 5y ago
      Independence in the quotes makes me feel concerned about the future of Europe. :-(
jollybean 5y ago
The CCP is not like Napoleon, bringing order out of chaos. Hong Kong and Taiwan are way ahead of China. Common prosperity would mean literally just leaving them alone - or even promoting and supporting their independence (!). Healthy, free, mostly democratic and sovereign Hong Kong and Taiwan would probably be in China's best interest in every way but their nationalist view of identity. It's their choice - but let's not pretend that Hong Kong and Taiwan are gaining Napolonic bureaucracy wherein there was none before.
- bllguo 5y ago
  way ahead? On what metrics? "leaving them alone" is straight-up naivete, especially when you consider the US military presence. I cannot imagine anyone who has seen a world map seriously advancing the idea of HK independence, it's not even what HK itself wants. Their current methods seem shortsighted and heavy-handed but China's objective of national security is eminently rational. To say it's in their best interest to leave them alone is simply absurd and clearly only accounts for Western perspectives
  - jollybean 5y ago
    There is zero US military - or any other military threat related to Taiwan or Hong Kong. While there might be some possibility of US defence of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, there is no material threat to Chinese territorial integrity otherwise - from anybody. There's no airbases, no missiles, no naval base, no ballistic missile launch points for US forces on Taiwan. There is zero military justification for China to invade Hong Kong or Taiwan. The capture of Taiwan and Hong Kong is 100% a Nationalist Imperialist objective of Han Supremacy and their version of identity, history etc. Militarily, the invasion of Taiwan is going to be extremely expensive, hugely disruptive, and will risk giant swaths of Chinese trade, their international standing and participation in so many things. In fact - it already is. China faces a great deal of pushback for their moves on both HK and Taiwan. ... "I cannot imagine anyone who has seen a world map seriously advancing the idea of HK independence," There is a 100% chance, that if a choice were given to Hong Kong citizens today to either continue on the path to integrating with China - or - to be independent - they would chose independence. Why don't we find out and give them the choice? Hong Kong would dump China the instant they had the opportunity. If the CCP had not moved towards controlling the political apparatus, Hong Kong would have been independent in 1997 whereupon China used the threat of violence to stop anyone from considering otherwise, as they do now: violence as the only instrument of power. ... "way ahead? On what metrics?" Hong Kong and Taiwan are ahead of the mainland on all metrics. 2020 GDP/capita in USD: HK $46K Taiwan $33K China $10K In terms of quality of life, education, healthcare, political freedoms - Hong Kong and Taiwan provide immensely better for their citizens than China ever will. The capture of Hong Kong by China is already resulting in it's decline, the same would happen to Taiwan. Hong Kong serves as an important financial gateway for China into the 'real world' - the only reason that financial opportunity exists is because the historical independence of Hong Kong. No more independence - no more special financial status - and so both China and Hong Kong lose.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
xdennis 5y ago
> I think the CCP is no more evil than Napoleon The comparison is laughable. Napoleon didn't starve millions of his own citizens.

petre 5y ago

Except what was deemed acceptable two centuries ago is no longer acceptable now. Napooleon also abolished the Spanish Inquisition. Invading Russia was always a stupid move.

emptysongglass 5y ago

> ... only cost cost cost to maintain an aggressive colony that builds processors as only output of value. Just to correct you here, the only aggressive country between these two is the Chinese side, which is "buzzing" Taiwanese airspace daily to keep them mobilized and exhausted and has built a full scale replica of central Taipei [1] in which the PLA does drills simulating its capture. That's not peaceful, those are the heights of aggression. If the CCP wants peace, they need to start showing it with action. [1] https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china-suggests-mock-invasion-of-taiwan/ https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china...

tsimionescu 5y ago
I think the GP was perfectly in line with what you're saying. They seemed to me to suggest that China will eventually invade Taiwan, and learn the hard way how bad that works out in the long run, and how costly this type of aggression is - just like the European empires learned for themselves from their own experience some few hundreds of years ago.
- secondaryacct 5y ago
  Yes, ofc I meant the aggressivity would come after they invade Taiwan and transform it into a colony. My English is sometimes awkward but the British could have switched to French when we invaded them. Sadly we all learned the hard way France couldnt maintain... an "aggressive colony" in England either hehehe As a half-related aside, I think the solution is what we eventually did with the EU, a mutually assured dependency that would force everyone to keep the peace we longed for millenia, and I think the British forgot a bit too fast the vain inter massacres our ancestors rushed into at each disagreement when they yelled for Brexit to give them back their "independence". Wish China could see it but afraid they have to try every other stupid way first :( Praying for the British and us our fishing disagreements and submarines rifraf dont escalate. Could Taiwan compromise with a soft border economic Union called the Greater China Union that would make everyone cool down ? Meh.
  - cema 5y ago
    Independence in the quotes makes me feel concerned about the future of Europe. :-(

jollybean 5y ago

The CCP is not like Napoleon, bringing order out of chaos. Hong Kong and Taiwan are way ahead of China. Common prosperity would mean literally just leaving them alone - or even promoting and supporting their independence (!). Healthy, free, mostly democratic and sovereign Hong Kong and Taiwan would probably be in China's best interest in every way but their nationalist view of identity. It's their choice - but let's not pretend that Hong Kong and Taiwan are gaining Napolonic bureaucracy wherein there was none before.

bllguo 5y ago
way ahead? On what metrics? "leaving them alone" is straight-up naivete, especially when you consider the US military presence. I cannot imagine anyone who has seen a world map seriously advancing the idea of HK independence, it's not even what HK itself wants. Their current methods seem shortsighted and heavy-handed but China's objective of national security is eminently rational. To say it's in their best interest to leave them alone is simply absurd and clearly only accounts for Western perspectives
- jollybean 5y ago
  There is zero US military - or any other military threat related to Taiwan or Hong Kong. While there might be some possibility of US defence of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, there is no material threat to Chinese territorial integrity otherwise - from anybody. There's no airbases, no missiles, no naval base, no ballistic missile launch points for US forces on Taiwan. There is zero military justification for China to invade Hong Kong or Taiwan. The capture of Taiwan and Hong Kong is 100% a Nationalist Imperialist objective of Han Supremacy and their version of identity, history etc. Militarily, the invasion of Taiwan is going to be extremely expensive, hugely disruptive, and will risk giant swaths of Chinese trade, their international standing and participation in so many things. In fact - it already is. China faces a great deal of pushback for their moves on both HK and Taiwan. ... "I cannot imagine anyone who has seen a world map seriously advancing the idea of HK independence," There is a 100% chance, that if a choice were given to Hong Kong citizens today to either continue on the path to integrating with China - or - to be independent - they would chose independence. Why don't we find out and give them the choice? Hong Kong would dump China the instant they had the opportunity. If the CCP had not moved towards controlling the political apparatus, Hong Kong would have been independent in 1997 whereupon China used the threat of violence to stop anyone from considering otherwise, as they do now: violence as the only instrument of power. ... "way ahead? On what metrics?" Hong Kong and Taiwan are ahead of the mainland on all metrics. 2020 GDP/capita in USD: HK $46K Taiwan $33K China $10K In terms of quality of life, education, healthcare, political freedoms - Hong Kong and Taiwan provide immensely better for their citizens than China ever will. The capture of Hong Kong by China is already resulting in it's decline, the same would happen to Taiwan. Hong Kong serves as an important financial gateway for China into the 'real world' - the only reason that financial opportunity exists is because the historical independence of Hong Kong. No more independence - no more special financial status - and so both China and Hong Kong lose.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

xdennis 5y ago

> I think the CCP is no more evil than Napoleon The comparison is laughable. Napoleon didn't starve millions of his own citizens.