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> Manhattan meets Maui I think that is a stretch beyond snapping point for Hong Kong. Most days in Hong Kong I could see the air pollution obscuring buildings

> Manhattan meets Maui I think that is a stretch beyond snapping point for Hong Kong. Most days in Hong Kong I could see the air pollution obscuring buildings in the distance. It's AQI is terrible https://aqicn.org/city/hongkong/ https://aqicn.org/city/hongkong/ . There are nice mountain walks and nearby islands but it is extremely dense and urban. It's one of the places Ghost in the Shell used for reference! Also the narrative here feels mostly from the mainland China point of view; having to go and deal with "problematic" Hong Kong. But problems between Hong Kong and the mainland began when Beijing used its influence to restrict Hong Kong's traditional democracy, so only "approved" candidates could be voted into office. And since then it's increasingly clamped down on the freedoms Hong Kong previously enjoyed, most recently doing things such as removing the Tiananmen Square memorials (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59764029). At this point the writing is on the wall and bit by bit Hong Kong will brought in step with the rest of mainland China. Unlike the author I found the Hong Kong bureaucracy fast and effective. Enforcers "sometimes able to look the other way" sounds like corruption to me and people with better guanxi being able to bend the rules. I'd rather have the laws fair, clear and applied to all equally (though that's always going to be a gradient). Despite all that, it's undeniable China is on the rise and that's going to be the dominant story of this century. There's potential for that to be a great boon to the world and I hope that's the reality that comes to be.

deleted 5y ago
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secondaryacct 5y ago
I disagree with you on Hong Kong (I m now a voting citizen, for what it's worth - not much). The problems in Hong Kong didnt start 2 years ago, they started when the UK came in, and we inherit a difficulty I know well where I come from (Europe, full of Corsica, Basque Country, Northern Ireland, Brittany, Catalonia and so on). Beijing reacts like we all reacted 2 centuries ago, and will slowly learn to deal with it, especially if they invade Taiwan and have to stop killing because unlike Xinjiang there's nothing to mine there and only cost cost cost to maintain an aggressive colony that builds processors as only output of value. I think the CCP is no more evil than Napoleon, and ask a Frenchman today and he'll rave about what he did that transformed eventually the country, at the cost of 200k+ young people's lives to invade Russia, if you can believe it. Things progress and China has to experience it for themselves, sadly. There's no shortcuts that I know of for such a big place.
- petre 5y ago
  Except what was deemed acceptable two centuries ago is no longer acceptable now. Napooleon also abolished the Spanish Inquisition. Invading Russia was always a stupid move.
- emptysongglass 5y ago
  > ... only cost cost cost to maintain an aggressive colony that builds processors as only output of value. Just to correct you here, the only aggressive country between these two is the Chinese side, which is "buzzing" Taiwanese airspace daily to keep them mobilized and exhausted and has built a full scale replica of central Taipei [1] in which the PLA does drills simulating its capture. That's not peaceful, those are the heights of aggression. If the CCP wants peace, they need to start showing it with action. [1] https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china-suggests-mock-invasion-of-taiwan/ https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china...
  - tsimionescu 5y ago
    I think the GP was perfectly in line with what you're saying. They seemed to me to suggest that China will eventually invade Taiwan, and learn the hard way how bad that works out in the long run, and how costly this type of aggression is - just like the European empires learned for themselves from their own experience some few hundreds of years ago.
    - secondaryacct 5y ago
      Yes, ofc I meant the aggressivity would come after they invade Taiwan and transform it into a colony. My English is sometimes awkward but the British could have switched to French when we invaded them. Sadly we all learned the hard way France couldnt maintain... an "aggressive colony" in England either hehehe As a half-related aside, I think the solution is what we eventually did with the EU, a mutually assured dependency that would force everyone to keep the peace we longed for millenia, and I think the British forgot a bit too fast the vain inter massacres our ancestors rushed into at each disagreement when they yelled for Brexit to give them back their "independence". Wish China could see it but afraid they have to try every other stupid way first :( Praying for the British and us our fishing disagreements and submarines rifraf dont escalate. Could Taiwan compromise with a soft border economic Union called the Greater China Union that would make everyone cool down ? Meh.
hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
> Despite all that, it's undeniable China is on the rise and that's going to be the dominant story of this century. I think that remains to be seen, for two major reasons: 1. Countries whose primary political system devolves into "cult of personality" tend to fare very poorly in the long run when it comes to global leadership (note, I think this warning applies to other countries besides China). 2. China has an undeniable demographic crisis on the horizon. Of course, so do many countries, so my hypothesis is that countries that are able to accept and integrate immigrants will do the best. It's an open question which country that is, but it definitely doesn't look like China.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  As for demography - this being 2022, we cannot rule out that further progress in biotech will result in kids born from artificial uteruses.
  - avrionov 5y ago
    Even if this is possible it is highly unlikely anything to change in the next 25 years.
    - inglor_cz 5y ago
      Expectations are a huge part of policy. If by 2030, first kids are born in "factories", governments will plan for the future in a different way than if they know that there are no alternatives to natural births.
      - alexanderdmitri 5y ago
        This is a fairly ridiculous thing to bring up right now.
  - mensetmanusman 5y ago
    The singularity is not near, no way there are artificial wombs being used at scale before 2200.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

secondaryacct 5y ago

I disagree with you on Hong Kong (I m now a voting citizen, for what it's worth - not much). The problems in Hong Kong didnt start 2 years ago, they started when the UK came in, and we inherit a difficulty I know well where I come from (Europe, full of Corsica, Basque Country, Northern Ireland, Brittany, Catalonia and so on). Beijing reacts like we all reacted 2 centuries ago, and will slowly learn to deal with it, especially if they invade Taiwan and have to stop killing because unlike Xinjiang there's nothing to mine there and only cost cost cost to maintain an aggressive colony that builds processors as only output of value. I think the CCP is no more evil than Napoleon, and ask a Frenchman today and he'll rave about what he did that transformed eventually the country, at the cost of 200k+ young people's lives to invade Russia, if you can believe it. Things progress and China has to experience it for themselves, sadly. There's no shortcuts that I know of for such a big place.

petre 5y ago
Except what was deemed acceptable two centuries ago is no longer acceptable now. Napooleon also abolished the Spanish Inquisition. Invading Russia was always a stupid move.
emptysongglass 5y ago
> ... only cost cost cost to maintain an aggressive colony that builds processors as only output of value. Just to correct you here, the only aggressive country between these two is the Chinese side, which is "buzzing" Taiwanese airspace daily to keep them mobilized and exhausted and has built a full scale replica of central Taipei [1] in which the PLA does drills simulating its capture. That's not peaceful, those are the heights of aggression. If the CCP wants peace, they need to start showing it with action. [1] https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china-suggests-mock-invasion-of-taiwan/ https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china...
- tsimionescu 5y ago
  I think the GP was perfectly in line with what you're saying. They seemed to me to suggest that China will eventually invade Taiwan, and learn the hard way how bad that works out in the long run, and how costly this type of aggression is - just like the European empires learned for themselves from their own experience some few hundreds of years ago.
  - secondaryacct 5y ago
    Yes, ofc I meant the aggressivity would come after they invade Taiwan and transform it into a colony. My English is sometimes awkward but the British could have switched to French when we invaded them. Sadly we all learned the hard way France couldnt maintain... an "aggressive colony" in England either hehehe As a half-related aside, I think the solution is what we eventually did with the EU, a mutually assured dependency that would force everyone to keep the peace we longed for millenia, and I think the British forgot a bit too fast the vain inter massacres our ancestors rushed into at each disagreement when they yelled for Brexit to give them back their "independence". Wish China could see it but afraid they have to try every other stupid way first :( Praying for the British and us our fishing disagreements and submarines rifraf dont escalate. Could Taiwan compromise with a soft border economic Union called the Greater China Union that would make everyone cool down ? Meh.

hn_throwaway_99 5y ago

> Despite all that, it's undeniable China is on the rise and that's going to be the dominant story of this century. I think that remains to be seen, for two major reasons: 1. Countries whose primary political system devolves into "cult of personality" tend to fare very poorly in the long run when it comes to global leadership (note, I think this warning applies to other countries besides China). 2. China has an undeniable demographic crisis on the horizon. Of course, so do many countries, so my hypothesis is that countries that are able to accept and integrate immigrants will do the best. It's an open question which country that is, but it definitely doesn't look like China.

inglor_cz 5y ago
As for demography - this being 2022, we cannot rule out that further progress in biotech will result in kids born from artificial uteruses.
- avrionov 5y ago
  Even if this is possible it is highly unlikely anything to change in the next 25 years.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    Expectations are a huge part of policy. If by 2030, first kids are born in "factories", governments will plan for the future in a different way than if they know that there are no alternatives to natural births.
    - alexanderdmitri 5y ago
      This is a fairly ridiculous thing to bring up right now.
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  The singularity is not near, no way there are artificial wombs being used at scale before 2200.