4 ms·

2022 Predictions

21 points by manjana 5y ago

rwmj 5y ago
> Web 2.0 holdouts get acquired by big names > Again, hard to predict any of these, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see Pinterest, Twitter, or Etsy get acquired. This prediction might be right, but I really hope governments clamp down and prevent the FAANG monopolies from acquiring any more power through acquisitions.
- echelon 5y ago
  > As the Apple App Tracking Transparency (ATT) rules change the game, different parts of the e-commerce stack will be forced to combine. The real reason for this is a single party controls 50+% of the computing landscape now. They're able to turn off revenue streams for billion dollar companies with a single policy change. Facebook is pivoting in part due to this. This economic gravitational wave of downstream impact shows that Apple has undue monopoly power. Congress and foreign powers should seek to constrain this.
  - traceroute66 5y ago
    I'm sorry, what ? Apple only turned off privacy infringing revenue streams, that's why Facebook was so pissed off ! You might enjoy being the product and allowing companies to take liberties with your data, I certainly do not. For that reason alone, give me an iPhone any day of the week. That, alongside all the other great privacy aspects such as centralised privacy controls, WiFi privacy etc.
    - friedman23 5y ago
      You completely ignored his argument about apple's market power and monopoly and devolved into moral grandstanding along with personal attacks. Notice how the parent makes 0 moral claims. Your monkey brain really couldn't control itself.
      - traceroute66 5y ago
        I disagree. The original poster was the one who went into "moral grandstanding", complaining about Apple being able to "turn off multi-billion revenue streams" and citing Facebook as the example of the disadvantaged multi-billion company. And you are a great one to accuse me of personal attacks (where ?) and at the same time calling me a "monkey brain" ??? Grow up !
        friedman23 5y ago
        > complaining about Apple being able to "turn off multi-billion revenue streams" This is a fact. There is nothing in the comment to indicate that it is a complaint. It is plainly a statement of fact.
        friedman23 5y ago
        > and at the same time calling me a "monkey brain" I'm not calling you a monkey brain, it's a figure of speech that the comment caused you to react in a certain way based on emotion. The emotional / instinctual part of the brain is the monkey brain.
      - btmiller 5y ago
        It’s easy to ignore that statement since it only really applies to the US. In most other markets Apple does not dominate on the order of >50%.
  - btmiller 5y ago
    Another way to look at it would be to characterize the practice of monetizing surveillance as unethical such that it motivates Apple to make changes to prevent it. A revenue stream disappearing that never should have existed is a feature, not a bug IMO.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
sergiotapia 5y ago
Nothing I have ever read about NFTs ever made me think wow this is real and useful. It's all a grift and yes, someone will be left holding the bag and lose a fortune. Something similar is happening in the retro games market where a group of 6 or 7 rich guys are stroking each other and artificially inflating the prices. These exact same people did the exact same thing for coin collectors in the 80s.
- nextweek2 5y ago
  To me it's a precursor. The technology could be used to represent something real, like a home or a car. Get a government/court to agree to that and an nft is a proof of ownership which can be fractionalized or locked for leverage. NFTs today are like the million dollar homepage. A bit of Internet history on the road to something useful.
paul7986 5y ago
We go further into the metaverse, which I thought is a joke cause Zuckerberg's marketing videos show an AR Glasses experience that doesn't exist nor probably will for a few years or more. Also, I've never been bullish on VR Headsets ... strap that thing to my face to work remotely huh..... BUT Didn't Meta sell oodles of Oculus headsets for Christmas and the latest filters on Instagram are deepfake like where you can become your most hottest self (fool people) ... thus everyone straps on a VR headset and becomes hot is where we might be heading ... people are changing their gender (that is meant as a factual neutral statement only) cause they don't like it ... how many really like themselves...with their deepfake filter they too can get 100s to 1000s of likes just cause they "look," beautiful or hot. Overall the metaverse will it be a good thing for society... hmmm Guess with AR Glasses we'll be able to look our hottest selves to those wearing them too.
- uejfiweun 5y ago
  It's like the movie "Surrogates". I don't look forward to this future. It is very useful to me to be able to visually judge people, for example I will steer clear of crazy looking people. This new world of avatars will make it harder to do this.
- spywaregorilla 5y ago
  > people are changing their gender (that is meant as a factual neutral statement only) cause they don't like it Saying its a factual neutral statement doesn't make it a factual neutral statement. It is factual and neutral to state that people are changing their gender. But appending that the reason is that they "don't like it" is a gross oversimplification that implies its more of shallow whim, especially when placed alongside references to people just trying to deepfake themselves to be hot.
nathias 5y ago

2022 Predictions

21 points by manjana 5y ago

rwmj 5y ago

> Web 2.0 holdouts get acquired by big names > Again, hard to predict any of these, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see Pinterest, Twitter, or Etsy get acquired. This prediction might be right, but I really hope governments clamp down and prevent the FAANG monopolies from acquiring any more power through acquisitions.

echelon 5y ago
> As the Apple App Tracking Transparency (ATT) rules change the game, different parts of the e-commerce stack will be forced to combine. The real reason for this is a single party controls 50+% of the computing landscape now. They're able to turn off revenue streams for billion dollar companies with a single policy change. Facebook is pivoting in part due to this. This economic gravitational wave of downstream impact shows that Apple has undue monopoly power. Congress and foreign powers should seek to constrain this.
- traceroute66 5y ago
  I'm sorry, what ? Apple only turned off privacy infringing revenue streams, that's why Facebook was so pissed off ! You might enjoy being the product and allowing companies to take liberties with your data, I certainly do not. For that reason alone, give me an iPhone any day of the week. That, alongside all the other great privacy aspects such as centralised privacy controls, WiFi privacy etc.
  - friedman23 5y ago
    You completely ignored his argument about apple's market power and monopoly and devolved into moral grandstanding along with personal attacks. Notice how the parent makes 0 moral claims. Your monkey brain really couldn't control itself.
    - traceroute66 5y ago
      I disagree. The original poster was the one who went into "moral grandstanding", complaining about Apple being able to "turn off multi-billion revenue streams" and citing Facebook as the example of the disadvantaged multi-billion company. And you are a great one to accuse me of personal attacks (where ?) and at the same time calling me a "monkey brain" ??? Grow up !
      - friedman23 5y ago
        > complaining about Apple being able to "turn off multi-billion revenue streams" This is a fact. There is nothing in the comment to indicate that it is a complaint. It is plainly a statement of fact.
      - friedman23 5y ago
        > and at the same time calling me a "monkey brain" I'm not calling you a monkey brain, it's a figure of speech that the comment caused you to react in a certain way based on emotion. The emotional / instinctual part of the brain is the monkey brain.
    - btmiller 5y ago
      It’s easy to ignore that statement since it only really applies to the US. In most other markets Apple does not dominate on the order of >50%.
- btmiller 5y ago
  Another way to look at it would be to characterize the practice of monetizing surveillance as unethical such that it motivates Apple to make changes to prevent it. A revenue stream disappearing that never should have existed is a feature, not a bug IMO.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]

sergiotapia 5y ago

Nothing I have ever read about NFTs ever made me think wow this is real and useful. It's all a grift and yes, someone will be left holding the bag and lose a fortune. Something similar is happening in the retro games market where a group of 6 or 7 rich guys are stroking each other and artificially inflating the prices. These exact same people did the exact same thing for coin collectors in the 80s.

nextweek2 5y ago
To me it's a precursor. The technology could be used to represent something real, like a home or a car. Get a government/court to agree to that and an nft is a proof of ownership which can be fractionalized or locked for leverage. NFTs today are like the million dollar homepage. A bit of Internet history on the road to something useful.

paul7986 5y ago

We go further into the metaverse, which I thought is a joke cause Zuckerberg's marketing videos show an AR Glasses experience that doesn't exist nor probably will for a few years or more. Also, I've never been bullish on VR Headsets ... strap that thing to my face to work remotely huh..... BUT Didn't Meta sell oodles of Oculus headsets for Christmas and the latest filters on Instagram are deepfake like where you can become your most hottest self (fool people) ... thus everyone straps on a VR headset and becomes hot is where we might be heading ... people are changing their gender (that is meant as a factual neutral statement only) cause they don't like it ... how many really like themselves...with their deepfake filter they too can get 100s to 1000s of likes just cause they "look," beautiful or hot. Overall the metaverse will it be a good thing for society... hmmm Guess with AR Glasses we'll be able to look our hottest selves to those wearing them too.

uejfiweun 5y ago
It's like the movie "Surrogates". I don't look forward to this future. It is very useful to me to be able to visually judge people, for example I will steer clear of crazy looking people. This new world of avatars will make it harder to do this.
spywaregorilla 5y ago
> people are changing their gender (that is meant as a factual neutral statement only) cause they don't like it Saying its a factual neutral statement doesn't make it a factual neutral statement. It is factual and neutral to state that people are changing their gender. But appending that the reason is that they "don't like it" is a gross oversimplification that implies its more of shallow whim, especially when placed alongside references to people just trying to deepfake themselves to be hot.

nathias 5y ago