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> However the vaccines don't stop you catching or spreading the virus Vaccines reduce spread. Even if it doesn’t stop spread completely it’s still a significan

> However the vaccines don't stop you catching or spreading the virus Vaccines reduce spread. Even if it doesn’t stop spread completely it’s still a significant factor.

moralestapia 5y ago
>Vaccines reduce spread. In this case, they don't.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  Uh, source? Media very much likes to simplify these things, but if you think of this in a probabilistic/continuous manner, rather than a "yes spread vs no spread" approach, the vaccines obviously reduce spread?
  - moralestapia 5y ago
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risk-of-vaccinated-covid-transmission-is-not-low/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risk-of-vacci... You're right that there's no definite answer to this, but the general consensus among doctors is that it doesn't prevent the virus from spreading.
    - scrollaway 5y ago
      “Doesn’t prevent” isn’t the same thing as “doesn’t reduce”.
      - moralestapia 5y ago
        No one really knows, actually, and the reduction (if it's there) could be marginal. OTOH, the measures that are being implemented for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated are out of proportion based on the evidence we have.
    - MiroF 5y ago
      You really don't see how you're playing into exactly the fallacy they're critiquing?
    - omarhaneef 5y ago
      From the article you post: “ In a November press conference, Tedros Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the WHO, said that the vaccines were 60 percent protective against spreading the virus prior to the arrival of the delta variant. That number has dropped to 40 percent post-Delta. Omicron may worsen the problem, if, as suspected, it is more transmissible and leads to many more breakthrough infections.”
calebm 5y ago
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  What kind of reasoning is this? Is this the sort of logic you would use on the job?
- micromacrofoot 5y ago
  you seem to be ignoring the fact that we’ve ended up with 2 variants that are more contagious… with the purpose of implying vaccines are to blame? complete nonsense
  - kolanos 5y ago
    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-produce-stronger-versions-of-viruses-072715 https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-pr...
    - micromacrofoot 5y ago
      ok now where’s the link that provides evidence of this happening with covid? or are you just guessing?
      - kolanos 5y ago
        I'm just pointing out that your claim that a vaccine making a virus more virulent being "nonsense" is not supported by >50 years of scientific research. Especially if that vaccine is leaky, which the current vaccines appear to be.
        micromacrofoot 5y ago
        it’s nonsense on the current subject, which is covid… not sure we need the gymnastics of “technically it could happen” here
- 5y ago
crisdux 5y ago
It is fairly clear that is it not a significant factor, even before omicron. I don't know how these claims that lack a solid scientific basis still continue. You cannot attribute a capability to a vaccine that has not been confirmed through high quality evidence.
- xxpor 5y ago
  it's not clear at all. Where I live, unvaccinated people are >7x likely to test positive.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  https://khub.net/documents/135939561/390853656/Impact+of+vaccination+on+household+transmission+of+SARS-COV-2+in+England.pdf/35bf4bb1-6ade-d3eb-a39e-9c9b25a8122a?t=1619601878136 https://khub.net/documents/135939561/390853656/Impact+of+vac... There are a number of studies both identifying a mechanism for covid to have reduced spread due to vaccine and verifying that this occurs empirically. The difference is decreased with newer variants but: 1. Hybrid immunity is even stronger at reducing spread and only possible with prior vaccination 2. There is still non-negligible reduced spread which can be impactful.
VoodooJuJu 5y ago
throwaway55421 5y ago
Moving from 100% infected to 100% infected is not a reduction. At some point, there is no realistic difference between R=10 and R=7. Everyone is getting this. Some of us have known that since March 2020. If your theory includes "avoid being infected with coronavirus" and you live in a democratic country it is a flawed theory. Only full home isolation or hazmat suit rituals will suffice.
- jquery 5y ago
  Overwhelmed ICUs and hospitals beg to differ that reducing transmission rate is useless. Reducing virulence is absolutely worthwhile even if eventually everyone will get infected at some point.
  - throwaway55421 5y ago
    In fact the opposite is true. If everyone gets coronavirus in a two week period, ICU is less overwhelmed for the rest of the year. A lot of susceptible people die, of course. If you attempt to spread it out and succeed, you're at 100% capacity basically all of the time, plus 99% of people get to deal with the fact that coronavirus restrictions are utterly miserable. Omicron has probably made all of this irrelevant anyway, it's so contagious that effectively everyone who goes outside is getting it this month. 1 in 15 in London right now and that's only the confirmed cases I believe.
    - scrollaway 5y ago
      I'm vaccinated and effectively boosted. I've been going out tons and not being careful at all. I kissed my girlfriend recently who had as it turns out Omicron at the time. I have yet to catch it. "Everyone" is a significant stretch. Yeah its seriously contagious but you, an engineer, should know better than deal with such absolutes. Viruses burn out long before they infect everyone, even without vaccines and even if they're extremely contagious.
      - throwaway55421 5y ago

> However the vaccines don't stop you catching or spreading the virus Vaccines reduce spread. Even if it doesn’t stop spread completely it’s still a significant factor.

moralestapia 5y ago

>Vaccines reduce spread. In this case, they don't.

whimsicalism 5y ago
Uh, source? Media very much likes to simplify these things, but if you think of this in a probabilistic/continuous manner, rather than a "yes spread vs no spread" approach, the vaccines obviously reduce spread?
- moralestapia 5y ago
  https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risk-of-vaccinated-covid-transmission-is-not-low/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risk-of-vacci... You're right that there's no definite answer to this, but the general consensus among doctors is that it doesn't prevent the virus from spreading.
  - scrollaway 5y ago
    “Doesn’t prevent” isn’t the same thing as “doesn’t reduce”.
    - moralestapia 5y ago
      No one really knows, actually, and the reduction (if it's there) could be marginal. OTOH, the measures that are being implemented for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated are out of proportion based on the evidence we have.
  - MiroF 5y ago
    You really don't see how you're playing into exactly the fallacy they're critiquing?
  - omarhaneef 5y ago
    From the article you post: “ In a November press conference, Tedros Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the WHO, said that the vaccines were 60 percent protective against spreading the virus prior to the arrival of the delta variant. That number has dropped to 40 percent post-Delta. Omicron may worsen the problem, if, as suspected, it is more transmissible and leads to many more breakthrough infections.”

calebm 5y ago

whimsicalism 5y ago
What kind of reasoning is this? Is this the sort of logic you would use on the job?
micromacrofoot 5y ago
you seem to be ignoring the fact that we’ve ended up with 2 variants that are more contagious… with the purpose of implying vaccines are to blame? complete nonsense
- kolanos 5y ago
  https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-produce-stronger-versions-of-viruses-072715 https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-pr...
  - micromacrofoot 5y ago
    ok now where’s the link that provides evidence of this happening with covid? or are you just guessing?
    - kolanos 5y ago
      I'm just pointing out that your claim that a vaccine making a virus more virulent being "nonsense" is not supported by >50 years of scientific research. Especially if that vaccine is leaky, which the current vaccines appear to be.
      - micromacrofoot 5y ago
        it’s nonsense on the current subject, which is covid… not sure we need the gymnastics of “technically it could happen” here
5y ago

crisdux 5y ago

It is fairly clear that is it not a significant factor, even before omicron. I don't know how these claims that lack a solid scientific basis still continue. You cannot attribute a capability to a vaccine that has not been confirmed through high quality evidence.

xxpor 5y ago
it's not clear at all. Where I live, unvaccinated people are >7x likely to test positive.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
whimsicalism 5y ago
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/390853656/Impact+of+vaccination+on+household+transmission+of+SARS-COV-2+in+England.pdf/35bf4bb1-6ade-d3eb-a39e-9c9b25a8122a?t=1619601878136 https://khub.net/documents/135939561/390853656/Impact+of+vac... There are a number of studies both identifying a mechanism for covid to have reduced spread due to vaccine and verifying that this occurs empirically. The difference is decreased with newer variants but: 1. Hybrid immunity is even stronger at reducing spread and only possible with prior vaccination 2. There is still non-negligible reduced spread which can be impactful.

VoodooJuJu 5y ago

throwaway55421 5y ago

Moving from 100% infected to 100% infected is not a reduction. At some point, there is no realistic difference between R=10 and R=7. Everyone is getting this. Some of us have known that since March 2020. If your theory includes "avoid being infected with coronavirus" and you live in a democratic country it is a flawed theory. Only full home isolation or hazmat suit rituals will suffice.

jquery 5y ago
Overwhelmed ICUs and hospitals beg to differ that reducing transmission rate is useless. Reducing virulence is absolutely worthwhile even if eventually everyone will get infected at some point.
- throwaway55421 5y ago
  In fact the opposite is true. If everyone gets coronavirus in a two week period, ICU is less overwhelmed for the rest of the year. A lot of susceptible people die, of course. If you attempt to spread it out and succeed, you're at 100% capacity basically all of the time, plus 99% of people get to deal with the fact that coronavirus restrictions are utterly miserable. Omicron has probably made all of this irrelevant anyway, it's so contagious that effectively everyone who goes outside is getting it this month. 1 in 15 in London right now and that's only the confirmed cases I believe.
  - scrollaway 5y ago
    I'm vaccinated and effectively boosted. I've been going out tons and not being careful at all. I kissed my girlfriend recently who had as it turns out Omicron at the time. I have yet to catch it. "Everyone" is a significant stretch. Yeah its seriously contagious but you, an engineer, should know better than deal with such absolutes. Viruses burn out long before they infect everyone, even without vaccines and even if they're extremely contagious.
    - throwaway55421 5y ago