3 ms·

So I went rummaging around to see what the stats were for flu risk vs. covid-19 (w/ vaccine) risk. Judging by the this website of historical data, looks like d

by eej71 5y ago

So I went rummaging around to see what the stats were for flu risk vs. covid-19 (w/ vaccine) risk. Judging by the this website of historical data, looks like deaths per year seems to average around 15/100,000 a year. It's interesting to see how the number has come down quite a bit over the last 40 years. Check it out. Was quite a bit higher even in the late 90s! https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-influenza-and-pneumonia-in-the-us-since-1950/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-influen... Now onto the fatality rate for covid-19 for those who have been vaccinated. Judging by the CDC's table here, looks like it is around 35/100,000 after the 2nd shot. I do think (hope?) the number will improve a bit thanks to post infection treatment protocols. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm#T2_down https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm#T2_down

mlyle 5y ago
> Judging by the CDC's table here, looks like it is around 35/100,000 after the 2nd shot. Yes, so this is a different approach than I took, but it's yielding equivalent numbers. You have about 2x the risk of influenza after vaccination for the population as a whole. It's a bit worse at my age (influenza death rates don't rise much for age 42, but COVID death rates do a bit more). And now we have Omicron showing up and reducing protection from vaccination. So back of the envelope from these numbers it's reasonable to come up with an estimate of 3x, too. Of course, this approach has myriad flaws-- better to take the conditional probability approach that I did and look at probability of infection and probability of severe illness given infection. In any case: I can accept a 3x influenza risk. It's the cumulative effects of the others that is making me take every possible precaution. And even so, I can't really see my dad.

by eej71 5y ago

mlyle 5y ago

> Judging by the CDC's table here, looks like it is around 35/100,000 after the 2nd shot. Yes, so this is a different approach than I took, but it's yielding equivalent numbers. You have about 2x the risk of influenza after vaccination for the population as a whole. It's a bit worse at my age (influenza death rates don't rise much for age 42, but COVID death rates do a bit more). And now we have Omicron showing up and reducing protection from vaccination. So back of the envelope from these numbers it's reasonable to come up with an estimate of 3x, too. Of course, this approach has myriad flaws-- better to take the conditional probability approach that I did and look at probability of infection and probability of severe illness given infection. In any case: I can accept a 3x influenza risk. It's the cumulative effects of the others that is making me take every possible precaution. And even so, I can't really see my dad.