5 ms·
My theory is that the impending rundown of fossil fuels-- mostly the economic consequences of it-- is a factor here. Oil and coal deposits were a strongly excl
by hakfoo 5y ago
My theory is that the impending rundown of fossil fuels-- mostly the economic consequences of it-- is a factor here. Oil and coal deposits were a strongly exclusive, ownable asset. Even if you didn't want to extract a given barrel of oil yourself, you could sell the rights on, or secure a loan with it. There are a few major economies anchored mostly by the estimated value of goo under their ground.
But we're probably 20-30 years, if not less, from most of those assets being written down significantly, if not completely. If the main demand for coal is a few aging power stations and the heritage railway tourist industry, and no banks will lend for new mining infrastructure, how do you extract any value from your deposit? Their direct replacements are nowhere near as compelling for that play-- even if you buy land with good prospects for renewables, you can hardly establish a monopoly on photons or wind.
So we're in a market that's desperately, if subconsciously, searching for the "new oil" -- a cartellable, highly liquid (sorry) asset with near universal tradeability. A lot of the "weird bubbles" lately-- customer data hoarding, cryptocurrency, NFTs-- can easily be pressed tnto that narrative. "There's some trivial use case today, but if we're right, in 30 years, the entire economy will be so dependent on it that major world powers regularly go to war over it." Sounds exactly like the sales pitch you'd make for petroleum in 1860.
- toss1 5y agoInteresting connection. Perhaps it isn't as direct as the Scrooge McDucks of the world saying "we're running out of Plan A (oil) rent seeking assets so let's move to Plan B". It still works even if it is just that capitalists preferentially look for rent-seeking opportunities over value creation because it is easier and longer lasting (and most of them aren't actually smart enough to consistently create value). Kind of ironic that two movements I see in younger generations are 1) 'anti-capitalism', and 2) 'be minimalist, own as little as possible and rent everything'. #2 falls right into the capitalist's trap.