4 ms·

As far as I can determine, once you are vaccinated, the risk of serious illness drops down considerably. So much so that (from what I can assess), you are effec

by eej71 5y ago

As far as I can determine, once you are vaccinated, the risk of serious illness drops down considerably. So much so that (from what I can assess), you are effectively back in range of "its just the flu". No?

yardie 5y ago
It’s still a nonzero risk of catching it and it being fatal. And there is the lost opportunity in being positive, having to isolate, and not having income above your base pay.
- eej71 5y ago
  I think a bump in pay makes a lot of sense - but I sometimes get the sense that there's a large disconnect between what people _feel_ the risk profile is (with vaccines) vs. what the actual risk profile is. From my standpoint, vaccines have transformed the risk profile back into the usual background noise of everyday life. It's perhaps slightly worse than the usual flu season, but nothing to be overly alarmed with. It makes sense for organizations to have plans for a drop in staffing availability. But to charactertize that as putting people's lives at risk seems... over the top to me.
- sokoloff 5y ago
  Same is true of H3N2 and other flu variants. “Zero risk” is not a reasonable threshold for routine life decisions, IMO.
  - mlyle 5y ago
    Zero risk isn't. But the risk picture right now is crummy. I'm a teacher and 42 years old. I think the risk, if I catch it, being vaccinated and fully boosted, is about 3x the risk from infleunza. And I have a substantially higher chance of catching it than influenza in any given timespan with how high case counts are. But even more than that: I can shoulder that risk. But when you stack the risk of all the disruption that would come with a mild infection, things are really crummy now. Then there's the worst thing: my dad is immunocompromised. He's vaccinated and boosted, but one can assume the efficacy is even worse for him. So, effectively, while I'm teaching and case counts are high, I can't see him.
    - eej71 5y ago
      So I went rummaging around to see what the stats were for flu risk vs. covid-19 (w/ vaccine) risk. Judging by the this website of historical data, looks like deaths per year seems to average around 15/100,000 a year. It's interesting to see how the number has come down quite a bit over the last 40 years. Check it out. Was quite a bit higher even in the late 90s! https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-influenza-and-pneumonia-in-the-us-since-1950/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-influen... Now onto the fatality rate for covid-19 for those who have been vaccinated. Judging by the CDC's table here, looks like it is around 35/100,000 after the 2nd shot. I do think (hope?) the number will improve a bit thanks to post infection treatment protocols. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm#T2_down https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm#T2_down
      - mlyle 5y ago
        > Judging by the CDC's table here, looks like it is around 35/100,000 after the 2nd shot. Yes, so this is a different approach than I took, but it's yielding equivalent numbers. You have about 2x the risk of influenza after vaccination for the population as a whole. It's a bit worse at my age (influenza death rates don't rise much for age 42, but COVID death rates do a bit more). And now we have Omicron showing up and reducing protection from vaccination. So back of the envelope from these numbers it's reasonable to come up with an estimate of 3x, too. Of course, this approach has myriad flaws-- better to take the conditional probability approach that I did and look at probability of infection and probability of severe illness given infection. In any case: I can accept a 3x influenza risk. It's the cumulative effects of the others that is making me take every possible precaution. And even so, I can't really see my dad.
- gus_massa 5y ago
  There is also a nonzero risk of catching the flu and being fatal. There is also a nonzero risk of the plane crashing and being fatal. ... Zero risk is not posible. It's about reducing the risks as much as possible and then managing them.
standardUser 5y ago
For most people yes, and those who are high risk (elderly, obese, immunocompromised) are likely not working as flight attendants.
- mkl 5y ago
  But many flight attendants will have high risk family members, friends, housemates, etc.
  - coolso 5y ago
    Who should also, hopefully, be vaxxed. And then in the case of them being severely immunocompromised, well, I’m not sure it’s the responsibility of someone to be required to do something because someone they interact with knows someone who knows someone who might be affected by it and may be among the 3% of Americans who are immunocompromised. At that point perhaps a job that requires you being around people isn’t the job for you, or you should get and wear an N95 mask because if it’s not COVID you’re going to be bringing other germs and bacteria and viruses home anyway - for example I just got done recovering from the flu not long ago. Note that masks on a plane weren’t required prior to COVID to protect friends of friends of friends, even though the flu kills many also.
Rd6n6 5y ago
You could spread it to your vulnerable family at home

by eej71 5y ago

yardie 5y ago

It’s still a nonzero risk of catching it and it being fatal. And there is the lost opportunity in being positive, having to isolate, and not having income above your base pay.

eej71 5y ago
I think a bump in pay makes a lot of sense - but I sometimes get the sense that there's a large disconnect between what people _feel_ the risk profile is (with vaccines) vs. what the actual risk profile is. From my standpoint, vaccines have transformed the risk profile back into the usual background noise of everyday life. It's perhaps slightly worse than the usual flu season, but nothing to be overly alarmed with. It makes sense for organizations to have plans for a drop in staffing availability. But to charactertize that as putting people's lives at risk seems... over the top to me.
sokoloff 5y ago
Same is true of H3N2 and other flu variants. “Zero risk” is not a reasonable threshold for routine life decisions, IMO.
- mlyle 5y ago
  Zero risk isn't. But the risk picture right now is crummy. I'm a teacher and 42 years old. I think the risk, if I catch it, being vaccinated and fully boosted, is about 3x the risk from infleunza. And I have a substantially higher chance of catching it than influenza in any given timespan with how high case counts are. But even more than that: I can shoulder that risk. But when you stack the risk of all the disruption that would come with a mild infection, things are really crummy now. Then there's the worst thing: my dad is immunocompromised. He's vaccinated and boosted, but one can assume the efficacy is even worse for him. So, effectively, while I'm teaching and case counts are high, I can't see him.
  - eej71 5y ago
    So I went rummaging around to see what the stats were for flu risk vs. covid-19 (w/ vaccine) risk. Judging by the this website of historical data, looks like deaths per year seems to average around 15/100,000 a year. It's interesting to see how the number has come down quite a bit over the last 40 years. Check it out. Was quite a bit higher even in the late 90s! https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-influenza-and-pneumonia-in-the-us-since-1950/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/184574/deaths-by-influen... Now onto the fatality rate for covid-19 for those who have been vaccinated. Judging by the CDC's table here, looks like it is around 35/100,000 after the 2nd shot. I do think (hope?) the number will improve a bit thanks to post infection treatment protocols. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm#T2_down https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm#T2_down
    - mlyle 5y ago
      > Judging by the CDC's table here, looks like it is around 35/100,000 after the 2nd shot. Yes, so this is a different approach than I took, but it's yielding equivalent numbers. You have about 2x the risk of influenza after vaccination for the population as a whole. It's a bit worse at my age (influenza death rates don't rise much for age 42, but COVID death rates do a bit more). And now we have Omicron showing up and reducing protection from vaccination. So back of the envelope from these numbers it's reasonable to come up with an estimate of 3x, too. Of course, this approach has myriad flaws-- better to take the conditional probability approach that I did and look at probability of infection and probability of severe illness given infection. In any case: I can accept a 3x influenza risk. It's the cumulative effects of the others that is making me take every possible precaution. And even so, I can't really see my dad.
gus_massa 5y ago
There is also a nonzero risk of catching the flu and being fatal. There is also a nonzero risk of the plane crashing and being fatal. ... Zero risk is not posible. It's about reducing the risks as much as possible and then managing them.

standardUser 5y ago

For most people yes, and those who are high risk (elderly, obese, immunocompromised) are likely not working as flight attendants.

mkl 5y ago
But many flight attendants will have high risk family members, friends, housemates, etc.
- coolso 5y ago
  Who should also, hopefully, be vaxxed. And then in the case of them being severely immunocompromised, well, I’m not sure it’s the responsibility of someone to be required to do something because someone they interact with knows someone who knows someone who might be affected by it and may be among the 3% of Americans who are immunocompromised. At that point perhaps a job that requires you being around people isn’t the job for you, or you should get and wear an N95 mask because if it’s not COVID you’re going to be bringing other germs and bacteria and viruses home anyway - for example I just got done recovering from the flu not long ago. Note that masks on a plane weren’t required prior to COVID to protect friends of friends of friends, even though the flu kills many also.

Rd6n6 5y ago

You could spread it to your vulnerable family at home