5 ms·

I wasn't even thinking about the global level, that's on another level of middle class becoming larger and richer :) Some US data: https://www.pewresearch.org/

by sershe 5y ago

I wasn't even thinking about the global level, that's on another level of middle class becoming larger and richer :) Some US data: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/09/06/the-american-middle-class-is-stable-in-size-but-losing-ground-financially-to-upper-income-families/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/09/06/the-america... (long term, not the headline) https://www.cato.org/blog/middle-class-shrinking-households-become-richer https://www.cato.org/blog/middle-class-shrinking-households-...

pojzon 5y ago
The data you show is for up to 2016. More recent market info shows that middle-class property ownership which was once required to be considered as part of middle-class (definition was changed) is rapidly decreasing making it almost impossible to get from lower-class to middle-class and overall removing pretty big percent of people that are currently (by income) put into middle-class (but would not be if we used old definition). https://www.rismedia.com/2019/09/03/is-middle-class-homeownership-becoming-unsustainable-and-inaccessible/ https://www.rismedia.com/2019/09/03/is-middle-class-homeowne... It doesnt matter how much money you make, if that money cannot buy you a shelter. You might disagree but next years are only going to make that crisis worse and worse. And more and more families will be not able to sustain the level of life our parents had - even whwn working 5 times as hard.
- sershe 5y ago
  The 2nd link has later data. Housing is an arbitrary metric (home ownership is only one aspect of class; it's very us specific - renting is far more normalized in other places; there may be unrelated shifts towards renting, e.g. for millennials supposedly leaving suburbs for the cities), and even with that the article doesn't even quantity a problem - it just points at some expensive cities, and some potential issues, while showing median income is still easily enough to buy a median house, etc. There's no metric according to which middle class is becoming poorer over any reasonable term in it. And any very recent change was probably caused by pandemic and reaction to it, not a part of some trend.. to revert it, we should stop doing what we were doing for the past year or two :) Btw iirc price to income ratio in the us is also one of the lowest in developed countries, or on par. Long term, I think the thinning middle class narrative is closer to being merely humanities grads complaining that they cannot afford to live in NYC and SF, than to any real issue ;)
  - pojzon 5y ago
    How can middle class not become poorer if inflation alone is making us able to buy less stuff that matters. How can you say my grandpa that was able to afford a big house and feed 5 children working alone as grandma was taking care pf the house - was not living in better financial condition than me who makes 3 times as much money as he did but I cannot afford half of what he could… The current definition of the middle class is constantly changing based on income only - which makes no sense. It should be calculated towards buying power you have. And buying power over the years for ppl like me and younger only decreases. Thus -> middle class crisis is going to hit the fan like really soon. It already did in China and its going to hit US too.
    - sershe 5y ago
      All the numbers in the above data are adjusted for inflation. Anecdotes are not data. According to this (quick google): https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/ https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/ inflation adjusted median price increased by about 80-95% since ~1970 (assuming ~25 years per generation for "grandpa"), depending on whether you include the COVID spike. According to this, however: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2016/05/25/the-size-of-a-home-the-year-you-were-born/2/ https://247wallst.com/special-report/2016/05/25/the-size-of-... median house size since 1970 increased by ~75%. That both calls "big house" into question, and puts the increase in price into perspective. Also, inflation adjusted income has increased by ~50% in the same time frame: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/ https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-.... So, housing has become expensive somewhat faster than income (but by far not 3x that you describe), in part because the houses are now much bigger (and not half the size that you imply for the 3x cost). To put it more bluntly than in my previous post (and for reference I did not grow up in the USA), the main difference between your US generation and grandpa's, is that yours is far more entitled, while representing a far smaller slice of world economy. And, if my West Coast experience is any indication, the sub-slices of the generation tend to feel more entitled in inverse proportion to their actual economic contribution...

by sershe 5y ago

pojzon 5y ago

The data you show is for up to 2016. More recent market info shows that middle-class property ownership which was once required to be considered as part of middle-class (definition was changed) is rapidly decreasing making it almost impossible to get from lower-class to middle-class and overall removing pretty big percent of people that are currently (by income) put into middle-class (but would not be if we used old definition). https://www.rismedia.com/2019/09/03/is-middle-class-homeownership-becoming-unsustainable-and-inaccessible/ https://www.rismedia.com/2019/09/03/is-middle-class-homeowne... It doesnt matter how much money you make, if that money cannot buy you a shelter. You might disagree but next years are only going to make that crisis worse and worse. And more and more families will be not able to sustain the level of life our parents had - even whwn working 5 times as hard.

sershe 5y ago
The 2nd link has later data. Housing is an arbitrary metric (home ownership is only one aspect of class; it's very us specific - renting is far more normalized in other places; there may be unrelated shifts towards renting, e.g. for millennials supposedly leaving suburbs for the cities), and even with that the article doesn't even quantity a problem - it just points at some expensive cities, and some potential issues, while showing median income is still easily enough to buy a median house, etc. There's no metric according to which middle class is becoming poorer over any reasonable term in it. And any very recent change was probably caused by pandemic and reaction to it, not a part of some trend.. to revert it, we should stop doing what we were doing for the past year or two :) Btw iirc price to income ratio in the us is also one of the lowest in developed countries, or on par. Long term, I think the thinning middle class narrative is closer to being merely humanities grads complaining that they cannot afford to live in NYC and SF, than to any real issue ;)
- pojzon 5y ago
  How can middle class not become poorer if inflation alone is making us able to buy less stuff that matters. How can you say my grandpa that was able to afford a big house and feed 5 children working alone as grandma was taking care pf the house - was not living in better financial condition than me who makes 3 times as much money as he did but I cannot afford half of what he could… The current definition of the middle class is constantly changing based on income only - which makes no sense. It should be calculated towards buying power you have. And buying power over the years for ppl like me and younger only decreases. Thus -> middle class crisis is going to hit the fan like really soon. It already did in China and its going to hit US too.
  - sershe 5y ago
    All the numbers in the above data are adjusted for inflation. Anecdotes are not data. According to this (quick google): https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/ https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/ inflation adjusted median price increased by about 80-95% since ~1970 (assuming ~25 years per generation for "grandpa"), depending on whether you include the COVID spike. According to this, however: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2016/05/25/the-size-of-a-home-the-year-you-were-born/2/ https://247wallst.com/special-report/2016/05/25/the-size-of-... median house size since 1970 increased by ~75%. That both calls "big house" into question, and puts the increase in price into perspective. Also, inflation adjusted income has increased by ~50% in the same time frame: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/ https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-.... So, housing has become expensive somewhat faster than income (but by far not 3x that you describe), in part because the houses are now much bigger (and not half the size that you imply for the 3x cost). To put it more bluntly than in my previous post (and for reference I did not grow up in the USA), the main difference between your US generation and grandpa's, is that yours is far more entitled, while representing a far smaller slice of world economy. And, if my West Coast experience is any indication, the sub-slices of the generation tend to feel more entitled in inverse proportion to their actual economic contribution...