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One big hairy one: the financial crash finally arrives. I predicted this a few years back but covid and money printing postponed the bubble burst a little longe

One big hairy one: the financial crash finally arrives. I predicted this a few years back but covid and money printing postponed the bubble burst a little longer. With inflation rising and govt debt already sky high (worsened by rising interest rates), there is finally “nowhere to go” but down. The triggers will be multiple, unlike 2008. Crypto crash will play a big part, but also housing market crashes, the end of the retail stock boom, inflation-wage price spiral, structural problems with the Chinese economy, and geopolitics spilling into economics. A good time to ensure you have savings to weather the storm, hopefully get ready to invest once the crash is done, and if you can then take advantage by taking time off, studying for qualifications, or starting a business (recession is a great time to start up). Hang on to your hat and get your finances in order, even if that means downsizing your house.

joelbluminator 5y ago
> there is finally “nowhere to go” but down That's definitely possible but it can definitely still "go up" - even for years. We're already used to debt to gdp being around 130% in the U.S (which a decade ago would have been unthinkable), who says it can't go to 200%. These numbers lose their wow effect really quickly and we all get used to them. In fact, breaking the current dynamic is so hard and risky that central banks are tempted to stretch the debt further and further to prevent a market crash and a recession. And yet there's inflation for real now, a sign things maybe can't go on like this for long. I really have no idea but I'm not brave enough to make predictions over such a random thing as where the economy goes next year.