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Cloud: Increasingly high-level offerings, starting with Functions/Database/X as a Service, but extending to business-level APIs (chat, payment, inventory manage

Cloud: Increasingly high-level offerings, starting with Functions/Database/X as a Service, but extending to business-level APIs (chat, payment, inventory management, tracking, accounting etc...) Crypto: Some great innovation around decentralized organizations, not just in finance (e.g. VC funds organizing as D(A)Os that let crypto owners be LPs), but also in areas such as shipping, international trade, copyright etc. Also, the emergence of a "winner-take-all" Ethereum competitor, e.g. Solana, due to network effects resulting from its ecosystem. Europe: Social Division due to Corona Measures. Economic struggles due to lack of innovation and economic activity over the last two years—inability to counteract this due to bloated bureaucracy. USA: A move towards the political center, the decline of progressive left and alt-right. More even distribution of tech and economic activity from SF/NYC to across the country. China: Increased focus on communism, reduction of economic freedom and centralisation of power. Indo-China, Central India and Central Africa: Fast rise of innovation and internet enabled entrepreneurship, some major Bangalore, Hanoi and Lagos based startups. Best Case Scenario for 2022: Russia and China stay peaceful, Omikron creates global immunity to Covid, pandemic ends and economies bounce back violently, thus ending inflation and making rising interest rates unnecessary. Worst Case Scenario for 2022: Putin invades Ukraine. Minimal response from foreign powers emboldens China to take over Taiwan. The takeover of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing creates global chip squeeze that leaves western economies struggling. Western nations unable to counteract aggression due to crippling debt and continued economic decline.

Pandabob 5y ago
The business-level API prediction is an interesting one. Any examples of this right now? Chat and payments are fairly obvious, but what would an inventory management API look like?
- wolframhempel 5y ago
  I'm not an expert on this, but there's standardized product identification (e.g. UPC-A, the standard barcodes are based on) and associated formats for tracking that let e.g. supermarkets, logistics and vendors integrate their data (though as always standard adherence is not as clean as it could be)
gremlinsinc 5y ago
> USA: A move towards the political center, the decline of progressive left and alt-right. More even distribution of tech and economic activity from SF/NYC to across the country. That's a neoliberal pipe-dream... the popularity of /r/antiwork w/ even some conservatives joining the anti-establishment pro-unionism throngs. Progressivism isn't going anywhere. The next generation is struggling, even w/ college degrees to get by. The only side even trying to solve it is progressives, I mean look at how hated Manchin and Sinema are by nearly everybody in the democratic party. I'm guessing most of that is 'for show' they're the token 'fall guys' to keep the centrists saying hey "we wanted to be progressive but Manchin blew it! Oh shux! Maybe we'll try again next decade to get Medicare For All". If there's a break up of left/alt-right I'd rather it be a joining forces of the inequal left/right members of society - and a realization about class warfare and how they fit into it. The right's nutty at times, but I think everyone can relate to wanting better benefits, more money, more time off for births, etc...
- wolframhempel 5y ago
  I'm more optimistic. I think progressive centers like SF are in fast decline and people are voting with their feet. Politicians pick up on that why we now see e.g. London Breed suddenly championing policing and law and order.

Pandabob 5y ago

The business-level API prediction is an interesting one. Any examples of this right now? Chat and payments are fairly obvious, but what would an inventory management API look like?

wolframhempel 5y ago
I'm not an expert on this, but there's standardized product identification (e.g. UPC-A, the standard barcodes are based on) and associated formats for tracking that let e.g. supermarkets, logistics and vendors integrate their data (though as always standard adherence is not as clean as it could be)

gremlinsinc 5y ago

> USA: A move towards the political center, the decline of progressive left and alt-right. More even distribution of tech and economic activity from SF/NYC to across the country. That's a neoliberal pipe-dream... the popularity of /r/antiwork w/ even some conservatives joining the anti-establishment pro-unionism throngs. Progressivism isn't going anywhere. The next generation is struggling, even w/ college degrees to get by. The only side even trying to solve it is progressives, I mean look at how hated Manchin and Sinema are by nearly everybody in the democratic party. I'm guessing most of that is 'for show' they're the token 'fall guys' to keep the centrists saying hey "we wanted to be progressive but Manchin blew it! Oh shux! Maybe we'll try again next decade to get Medicare For All". If there's a break up of left/alt-right I'd rather it be a joining forces of the inequal left/right members of society - and a realization about class warfare and how they fit into it. The right's nutty at times, but I think everyone can relate to wanting better benefits, more money, more time off for births, etc...

wolframhempel 5y ago
I'm more optimistic. I think progressive centers like SF are in fast decline and people are voting with their feet. Politicians pick up on that why we now see e.g. London Breed suddenly championing policing and law and order.