4 ms·

It will be a tumultuous year, new covid variant will come out and governments will insist on the same playbook, a large part of the population will push back.

It will be a tumultuous year, new covid variant will come out and governments will insist on the same playbook, a large part of the population will push back. Money markets will go up and down surfing the good and bad news of Covid, but will cool off with the social cracks made by inflation and the timid “end of free” money. Bitcoin will go up but not reach 100k. Tech’s gonna tech. Nothing profoundly new, the already big ones will continue to inflate and rake the money, sure they’ll get flak, fight a few big fines, make sure the right-to-repair plane lands of favorable ground. Their angst about the unknown future will increase but the bottom line will be great. New hacks and leaks scandals, a roaring for a few weeks about it, nothing fundamental will change. More “EVs surpassed ICE car sales” news, existing infrastructure will not be able to accommodate them and that will be mainstream news. Shortages of things ( both legit and artificial) will continue and contribute to market instability and high prices. When there’s instability among the people, the regimes tend to find a common enemy to save themselves. I fear the start of big wars in 2022, the west will pussy out because the cost is high and they aren’t willing to pay, the other parties know it. In the next years somebody’s gonna get too greedy and the cost will stop being too high. Socially, people will realize things change but they mostly stay the same. They can change by refusing to not play the game, will they have the courage to live without the goodies they’ve learn to pursuit?

whearyou 5y ago
Must agree with all of the predictions 100%
peakaboo 5y ago
We are at a crossroad here. If people don't push back in 2022, we are going to live in a society that makes "papers please" look like heaven compared to what we have. Please read this book if you doubt what I'm saying. It's not a god damn conspiracy theory. https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Childrens/dp/1510766804 https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Children...
- tapan_jk 5y ago
  Lots of downvotes but no counter argument? Please HN, let us do the right thing by disagreeing by argument rather than downvoting someone into oblivion. The only reason I value HN is that it (generally) is open to debate without taking hardline positions. Let us ensure we can retain this culture even when our emotions try to get the better of us.
  - md_ 5y ago
    The entire premise of up- and down-voting is that some comments are more valuable _to read_ than others. “Let’s just have a debate” isn’t really a fair criticism; we can’t afford to debate everything, so ultimately there’s going to be a preceding value judgment. That value judgment may look a lot like an ad hominem, but it’s perfectly rational—for example, in this case, the question is, should I take the time to seriously engage with a book written by a man who claims vaccines cause autism, led a group that opposed flouridation of drinking water, claimed that 5G “damages DNA” and is being installed to facilitate “mass surveillance”, and, oh, by the way, is a master falconer? (Nothing wrong with that, but I find it hilarious.) Obviously the answer is no. There are a lot of interesting, well-founded books on science that I want to read, and I just don’t have time to read a book by a master falconer, let alone engage meaningfully with it online. Maybe the earth is flat, and I’m just living with my head in the sand. Oh well?
    - tapan_jk 5y ago
      Thank you for responding. I am now better informed due to your explanation. I looked up the author based on your comment and now see the issue in better light. I am sure many others will understand why the parent of my earlier comment was downvoted.
gonzo41 5y ago
I agree with most things but I think crypto will cool off. Maybe BTC will keep climbing but crypto's wealth it concentrated amongst a few new rich people. What's different about that and old money. Not much really. I don't think real people (the 99.99%) will see crypto delivering on it's promise and it'll stay expensive and on the edges.
- emteycz 5y ago
  What does that have to do with the promise of crypto? Does it really matter if you're paying your pizza with 1 BTC or 1 satoshi? Crypto never promised to make everyone rich. It promised a decentralized trustless internet monetary system, and that is already delivered.
  - ChildOfChaos 5y ago
    It does matter, i'd be pretty upset if Pizza now costs 1 BTC.
  - newaccount74 5y ago
    Crypto promised to revolutionize payments with cheap, fast and secure transactions without relying on 3rd parties.
    - emteycz 5y ago
      And it's exactly that - yeah perhaps it's not as cheap as EU wire transfers which are sponsored by the banks as loss leaders for mortgages and insurance, but international transfers certainly are much cheaper, quicker and reliable/safer with BTC, and you are never forced to use a 3rd party, it's optional - as opposed to the traditional system. I'm happy with what I got.
      - newaccount74 5y ago
        No, crypto has not revolutionised payments. Payments are still dominated by credit / debit cards. In some markets app based mobile payments are starting to take off, but it really doesn't look like BTC is gaining any market share. Maybe I'm missing something, but as far as I can tell I can't buy a single thing that I would want to buy with BTC. It's actually getting worse. Some years ago I bought something with BTC. Now fees are so high that it is practically impossible to buy stuff with BTC. And even if you just use BTC for transferring money, you need 3rd parties to buy/sell bitcoins (and they will charge a fee). You can't keep your money in BTC, because as I stated above you can't buy anything with BTC.
lanevorockz 5y ago
Free Money never ends ... Authoritarianism never decelerates.
telxosser 5y ago
I think there will be a scare over the next variant but two years in it seems like we are on track. I think the pandemic will be declared over in 2023. In the US, with a pandemic end in view and the Fed raising rates the Fed's balance sheet will become a major narrative https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL We will have to start thinking about the end of the "everything bubble" and the realization of the massive economic hang over from so much stimulus. That is so 6 months from now at least though. Tonight we party like its 1999.

whearyou 5y ago

Must agree with all of the predictions 100%

peakaboo 5y ago

We are at a crossroad here. If people don't push back in 2022, we are going to live in a society that makes "papers please" look like heaven compared to what we have. Please read this book if you doubt what I'm saying. It's not a god damn conspiracy theory. https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Childrens/dp/1510766804 https://www.amazon.com/Real-Anthony-Fauci-Democracy-Children...

tapan_jk 5y ago
Lots of downvotes but no counter argument? Please HN, let us do the right thing by disagreeing by argument rather than downvoting someone into oblivion. The only reason I value HN is that it (generally) is open to debate without taking hardline positions. Let us ensure we can retain this culture even when our emotions try to get the better of us.
- md_ 5y ago
  The entire premise of up- and down-voting is that some comments are more valuable _to read_ than others. “Let’s just have a debate” isn’t really a fair criticism; we can’t afford to debate everything, so ultimately there’s going to be a preceding value judgment. That value judgment may look a lot like an ad hominem, but it’s perfectly rational—for example, in this case, the question is, should I take the time to seriously engage with a book written by a man who claims vaccines cause autism, led a group that opposed flouridation of drinking water, claimed that 5G “damages DNA” and is being installed to facilitate “mass surveillance”, and, oh, by the way, is a master falconer? (Nothing wrong with that, but I find it hilarious.) Obviously the answer is no. There are a lot of interesting, well-founded books on science that I want to read, and I just don’t have time to read a book by a master falconer, let alone engage meaningfully with it online. Maybe the earth is flat, and I’m just living with my head in the sand. Oh well?
  - tapan_jk 5y ago
    Thank you for responding. I am now better informed due to your explanation. I looked up the author based on your comment and now see the issue in better light. I am sure many others will understand why the parent of my earlier comment was downvoted.

gonzo41 5y ago

I agree with most things but I think crypto will cool off. Maybe BTC will keep climbing but crypto's wealth it concentrated amongst a few new rich people. What's different about that and old money. Not much really. I don't think real people (the 99.99%) will see crypto delivering on it's promise and it'll stay expensive and on the edges.

emteycz 5y ago
What does that have to do with the promise of crypto? Does it really matter if you're paying your pizza with 1 BTC or 1 satoshi? Crypto never promised to make everyone rich. It promised a decentralized trustless internet monetary system, and that is already delivered.
- ChildOfChaos 5y ago
  It does matter, i'd be pretty upset if Pizza now costs 1 BTC.
- newaccount74 5y ago
  Crypto promised to revolutionize payments with cheap, fast and secure transactions without relying on 3rd parties.
  - emteycz 5y ago
    And it's exactly that - yeah perhaps it's not as cheap as EU wire transfers which are sponsored by the banks as loss leaders for mortgages and insurance, but international transfers certainly are much cheaper, quicker and reliable/safer with BTC, and you are never forced to use a 3rd party, it's optional - as opposed to the traditional system. I'm happy with what I got.
    - newaccount74 5y ago
      No, crypto has not revolutionised payments. Payments are still dominated by credit / debit cards. In some markets app based mobile payments are starting to take off, but it really doesn't look like BTC is gaining any market share. Maybe I'm missing something, but as far as I can tell I can't buy a single thing that I would want to buy with BTC. It's actually getting worse. Some years ago I bought something with BTC. Now fees are so high that it is practically impossible to buy stuff with BTC. And even if you just use BTC for transferring money, you need 3rd parties to buy/sell bitcoins (and they will charge a fee). You can't keep your money in BTC, because as I stated above you can't buy anything with BTC.

lanevorockz 5y ago

Free Money never ends ... Authoritarianism never decelerates.

telxosser 5y ago

I think there will be a scare over the next variant but two years in it seems like we are on track. I think the pandemic will be declared over in 2023. In the US, with a pandemic end in view and the Fed raising rates the Fed's balance sheet will become a major narrative https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL We will have to start thinking about the end of the "everything bubble" and the realization of the massive economic hang over from so much stimulus. That is so 6 months from now at least though. Tonight we party like its 1999.