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To be clear the 0.89% figure was obtained by dividing hospitalizations by population, so it includes many unvaccinated people who have not caught COVID (yet).
by petmon 5y ago
To be clear the 0.89% figure was obtained by dividing hospitalizations by population, so it includes many unvaccinated people who have not caught COVID (yet).
The chance that an unvaccinated person who is COVID-positive will require hospitalization is around 3%.
- cinntaile 5y agoAre these numbers for the US?
- petmon 5y agoYes. You can do a quick and dirty estimate working backwards from the article's own figure of 2.6 million COVID hospitalizations in the US. If you very generously assume 1/3 of Americans have been infected, you get a hospitalization rate of 2.3%. If you assume the vaccines prevent hospitalizations, then the risk to the unvaccinated must be higher.
- MatteoFrigo 5y agoI wouldn't call 1/3 "generous". https://covidestim.org/ https://covidestim.org/ has some estimates of the fraction of people ever infected by US state. I can't seem to find an US aggregate figure, but by clicking on a few random states they all seem to be at least 50%. California (the most populous state) is around 60% even before omicron. Your estimate is likely off by a factor of two.
- newbamboo 5y agoWhat’s the risk for non-obese people? Not that obese people should be considered less healthy, just curious because much of America, outside of San Francisco, is obese.
- wwtrv 5y agoBut they are obviously less healthy?
- jokethrowaway 5y agoObese people are less healthy, that's a fact.