3 ms·
It doesn't make sense to have a US centric approach to this topic, FDA recomendations are just some among many. All the independent comissions in Europe are com
by bakuninsbart 5y ago
It doesn't make sense to have a US centric approach to this topic, FDA recomendations are just some among many. All the independent comissions in Europe are coming to similar conclusions, too.
> [severity of illness] * [transmissibility] = [strength of response justified]
I think that's quite a fair metric, but slightly incomplete. The most important factor here is ICU capacity vs. ICU occupancy rate, because this also measures if you die from shit like appendicitis. Winter in general sees more ICU cases, so the strain the system can take is already lower. Switzerland for example is still doing quite well despite incidence rates of more than a thousand due to their extremely advanced healthcare sector. Death is actually secondary in this. If you live after having taken an ICU bed for 6 weeks, you might have killed 2 other people completely unrelated to your case due to your own negligence.
The fact of the matter is that the healthcare sector is getting flooded again, and lots of countries have a serious risk of overstraining their healthcare sector to the point of triage. Booster shots substantially reduce the risk of serious illenss, at least that is what we are believing to see in our hospitals. Unvaccinated are close to 90% of ICU cases, while boostered people make up less than 1%, although it is important to note that doubly-vaccinated still make up more than half of the local population (and roughly 20% unvaccinated).
Of course it takes time to do good studies on the actual impact of booster vaccinations, and I'm super annoyed by the lack of full transparency of research bodies tasked to make recommendations, but you can't just sit on your balls in times of crisis. The risk to ones own health due to boostering also seems to be negligible, it is just a minor annoyance.
- KerryJones 5y agoThanks for this, I do consider severity to include hospitalization and death: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizerbiontech-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-drops-after-6-months-study-2021-10-04/ https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/... Note that it's now talking about effectiveness in transmissibility, rather than what defined effectiveness when they were being tested which was hospitalization and death -- which is still at 90% after 6 months, including against Delta. I do follow many nurse friends of mine who share daily counts of local ICU case increases, and very much agree that I consider ICU capacity (or hospital in general) to be something that must be monitored. That was a statistic I didn't have -- and thank you spurred some more study digging and I found this: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2115624 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2115624 This feels pretty relevant, 90% reduction in mortality between those who got a booster and those who did not (for ages 50+), though I'm still looking at people for my age. Anyway-- thanks, this is useful, going to dig more