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Preliminary note: I don't claim to be an expert in any field relevant to vaccines. This is just an everyday layman's opinion. (Also, I'm vaccinated and boosted

Preliminary note: I don't claim to be an expert in any field relevant to vaccines. This is just an everyday layman's opinion. (Also, I'm vaccinated and boosted as well). I think "anti-vax" sounds inherently extremist and conspiracy-theorist, and isn't an accurate representation of the middle ground here. To be fair, it's more like "pro-choice." Plenty of vaccines are given to children every year and required for them to attend school, and there hasn't really been any negative side-effects of that policy. It's tough to argue that we should not be required to have any vaccine to attend school, and that would break the status quo in the other direction. The question then becomes: What could make the Covid vaccine different from other vaccines, such that it shouldn't be required? * If these vaccines were approved earlier and with more early-stage preliminary data than other vaccines? * If Covid is not as severe as the diseases we currently require a vaccine for? [1] [1] The current required vaccines for school in New York, for example, are Diphtheria, Hepatitis B, Measles, Polio, and Chickenpox. The mortality rate and permanent damage for some of these diseases are much higher than Covid. With others, I'm not sure of the pre-vaccine mortality rate as it's been around for a long time. With all that in mind, Covid spreads as much if not more as the diseases we saw fit to require vaccinations against, and the mortality rate for the older population is high. I think a fair argument is whether schoolchildren should have to be vaccinated to protect against infecting the more vulnerable population.

md_ 5y ago
This is an excellent analysis, and I wish we saw more of these comparisons. The status quo (which differs by country!) for compulsory or somewhat-compulsory vaccination provides a great benchmark for what's seemingly "reasonable." I think that benchmark--and your analysis seems to show similarly--suggests most developed countries are sorta fine with compulsory vaccines for diseases like Covid. But looking at things through this lens helps contextualize and normalize the current policies--people who are concerned about Covid vaccines might feel a lot better when the vaccine is put into perspective.
- liber8 5y ago
  I think the "anti-vax" are drawing the opposite conclusion: Covid (for most people, and particularly for young people) is orders of magnitude less dangerous than measles, polio, diptheria, and the other compulsory vaccines. The feeling is that for this large subset of the population, it's on par with, or less dangerous than, the flu. Given that belief, it's understandable to question the logic behind compelling vaccinations.
  - md_ 5y ago
    I think it's understandable, but not necessarily accurate. First, in the US, seasonal flu vaccines are used by >50% of the population (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-2021estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-2021estimates.ht...). Yes, they're not mandatory, but many employers heavily encourage it. Second, chickenpox is compulsory for public schooling in a majority of states, and has a CFR of about 1/100k (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html#:~:text=The%20fatality%20rate%20for%20varicella,in%20immunocompetent%20children%20and%20adults https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html#:~....), which is, if I am reading https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.738423/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.7384... correctly, significantly lower than the covid CFR for the same age strata. Obviously it also makes sense to consider things like safety of the vaccine, risk to vulnerable populations, etc. But just on its face, it's not obvious that the covid vaccines are in any way contrary to prior precedent, at least not to me.
A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
I mostly agree. It is genuinely hard in this environment to rationally discuss individual options. As an example, here is an example of Hep B vaccination for infants. How is it transmitted: "This can happen through sexual contact; sharing needles, syringes, or other drug-injection equipment; or from mother to baby at birth. "[1] Why do I need it? My kid's doctor paraphrased: um, chart says so and school won't her in if she does not have it. And that does not mention super annoying conversation with wife, whose entire argument for it is: 'it won't do damage'. [1]https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/hbv/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/hbv/index.htm
- wincy 5y ago
  It’s because people cheat on their spouses a lot more than people think and a baby getting hepatitis B during vagina birth is just awful. Basically everything in standard of care assumes the worst about the individual.
  - azth 5y ago
    Then perhaps cheaters should be punished, and not parties not involved in the cheating?
    - Jensson 5y ago
      The state doesn't track who is cheating, so all they can do to protect kids is to assume everyone is equally likely to cheat. If you think it is better they tracked your sex life to ensure they didn't punish the wrong people then you have very different values than most.
      - azth 5y ago
        It doesn't have to be active sex life tracking, there are other ways. When cheater are punished, it will make others less likely to cheat. Win win for everyone.
  - A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
somewhereoutth 5y ago
Covid vaccines went through the same safety and efficacy trials as every other vaccine. Covid has a 2%? mortality rate against the immune naive, with a much greater proportion requiring hospitalisation and suffering long term health consequences. I believe that is pretty similar to many other illnesses we vaccinate against. There are varied and complex reasons for people being anti-vax, but none of them are grounded in science.
- torstenvl 5y ago
  Phase 1 trials take several months. Phase 2 trials take months to 2 years. Phase 3 trials take 1-4 years. https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3... In the case of Pfizer-BioNTech, the Phase 3 trial was started before Phase 2 even completed, and was completed in less than 8 months. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04713553 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04713553 Even with the rather expanded definition of "died while infected with COVID-19," the mortality rate is approximately 1.5% (845627 deaths / 55202306 cases) in the United States, or 25% lower than you claimed. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
xanaxagoras 5y ago
> I think "anti-vax" sounds inherently extremist and conspiracy-theorist, and isn't an accurate representation of the middle ground here. To be fair, it's more like "pro-choice." It's just a smear to divide and rally the left. Nobody who has received the plethora of other standard vaccines and given them to his child can reasonably be called anti-vax for refusing an experimental first-of-its-type vaccine that didn't follow the same rigorous process as the others. Especially not in a climate where natural immunity is ignored and off patent treatment are not pursued. I got the Pfizer vaccine and a single, final booster. I'm expecting that decision made from fear to come back to haunt me at some point in my life. I have nothing but respect for people who decide not to get a COVID vaccine.

md_ 5y ago

This is an excellent analysis, and I wish we saw more of these comparisons. The status quo (which differs by country!) for compulsory or somewhat-compulsory vaccination provides a great benchmark for what's seemingly "reasonable." I think that benchmark--and your analysis seems to show similarly--suggests most developed countries are sorta fine with compulsory vaccines for diseases like Covid. But looking at things through this lens helps contextualize and normalize the current policies--people who are concerned about Covid vaccines might feel a lot better when the vaccine is put into perspective.

liber8 5y ago
I think the "anti-vax" are drawing the opposite conclusion: Covid (for most people, and particularly for young people) is orders of magnitude less dangerous than measles, polio, diptheria, and the other compulsory vaccines. The feeling is that for this large subset of the population, it's on par with, or less dangerous than, the flu. Given that belief, it's understandable to question the logic behind compelling vaccinations.
- md_ 5y ago
  I think it's understandable, but not necessarily accurate. First, in the US, seasonal flu vaccines are used by >50% of the population (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-2021estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-2021estimates.ht...). Yes, they're not mandatory, but many employers heavily encourage it. Second, chickenpox is compulsory for public schooling in a majority of states, and has a CFR of about 1/100k (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html#:~:text=The%20fatality%20rate%20for%20varicella,in%20immunocompetent%20children%20and%20adults https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/varicella.html#:~....), which is, if I am reading https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.738423/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.7384... correctly, significantly lower than the covid CFR for the same age strata. Obviously it also makes sense to consider things like safety of the vaccine, risk to vulnerable populations, etc. But just on its face, it's not obvious that the covid vaccines are in any way contrary to prior precedent, at least not to me.

A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago

I mostly agree. It is genuinely hard in this environment to rationally discuss individual options. As an example, here is an example of Hep B vaccination for infants. How is it transmitted: "This can happen through sexual contact; sharing needles, syringes, or other drug-injection equipment; or from mother to baby at birth. "[1] Why do I need it? My kid's doctor paraphrased: um, chart says so and school won't her in if she does not have it. And that does not mention super annoying conversation with wife, whose entire argument for it is: 'it won't do damage'. [1]https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/hbv/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/hbv/index.htm

wincy 5y ago
It’s because people cheat on their spouses a lot more than people think and a baby getting hepatitis B during vagina birth is just awful. Basically everything in standard of care assumes the worst about the individual.
- azth 5y ago
  Then perhaps cheaters should be punished, and not parties not involved in the cheating?
  - Jensson 5y ago
    The state doesn't track who is cheating, so all they can do to protect kids is to assume everyone is equally likely to cheat. If you think it is better they tracked your sex life to ensure they didn't punish the wrong people then you have very different values than most.
    - azth 5y ago
      It doesn't have to be active sex life tracking, there are other ways. When cheater are punished, it will make others less likely to cheat. Win win for everyone.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago

somewhereoutth 5y ago

Covid vaccines went through the same safety and efficacy trials as every other vaccine. Covid has a 2%? mortality rate against the immune naive, with a much greater proportion requiring hospitalisation and suffering long term health consequences. I believe that is pretty similar to many other illnesses we vaccinate against. There are varied and complex reasons for people being anti-vax, but none of them are grounded in science.

torstenvl 5y ago
Phase 1 trials take several months. Phase 2 trials take months to 2 years. Phase 3 trials take 1-4 years. https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3... In the case of Pfizer-BioNTech, the Phase 3 trial was started before Phase 2 even completed, and was completed in less than 8 months. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04713553 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04713553 Even with the rather expanded definition of "died while infected with COVID-19," the mortality rate is approximately 1.5% (845627 deaths / 55202306 cases) in the United States, or 25% lower than you claimed. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

xanaxagoras 5y ago

> I think "anti-vax" sounds inherently extremist and conspiracy-theorist, and isn't an accurate representation of the middle ground here. To be fair, it's more like "pro-choice." It's just a smear to divide and rally the left. Nobody who has received the plethora of other standard vaccines and given them to his child can reasonably be called anti-vax for refusing an experimental first-of-its-type vaccine that didn't follow the same rigorous process as the others. Especially not in a climate where natural immunity is ignored and off patent treatment are not pursued. I got the Pfizer vaccine and a single, final booster. I'm expecting that decision made from fear to come back to haunt me at some point in my life. I have nothing but respect for people who decide not to get a COVID vaccine.