Knowledge is not a binary. The world is not a mix of "true" and "false", especially not in the realm of analyzing future outcomes. You need to not only get mul

Knowledge is not a binary. The world is not a mix of "true" and "false", especially not in the realm of analyzing future outcomes. You need to not only get multiple analysis, but normalize them, give them confidence scores and then interpret them - and you may interpret them differently than their authors. You may entirely discard some. How do you get a confidence score? Sure sometimes we can analyze the history of an analysis such as with political polling where we have someone like Rasmussen who has done it for a long long time... but you still need to account for changes in their own process. If Rasmussen gets a new head data scientist tomorrow, does that alter our confidence level? "Just use math!" is about the same as saying "Just don't be wrong!". Math is a tool, not a magic 8 ball.