Generally these open to everyone markets suffer from the garbage in garbage out problem (Good Judgment® Open, Metaculus,..) The low quality of the questions in

Generally these open to everyone markets suffer from the garbage in garbage out problem (Good Judgment® Open, Metaculus,..) The low quality of the questions indicates that nobody spends any effort. The question may be receiving community input for a week and nobody has a clue. Metaculus admins especially are spamming (their own site) with confused low-effort questions. They have: 1. arbitrary ways to quantify outcome thresholds. No standardization across questions. 2. Writing questions using terms the author does not actually know or misunderstands. 3. Using some random news sources as resolution criteria. Even if they are generally reliable, it just reveals how the author really didn't get into the question. For example, war or conflict questions. A question may use some arbitrary number like 3 or 5 dead as a threshold for war. Maybe trying to figure out how subject matter experts are quantifying different conflict thresholds and what their reasoning was would be reasonable.