5 ms·

> Putin is testing Germany's new government and the EU leadership. To me the current situation seems more self-inflicted than driven by Russia. Also it looks l

by HMH 5y ago

> Putin is testing Germany's new government and the EU leadership. To me the current situation seems more self-inflicted than driven by Russia. Also it looks like Gazprom is fulfilling its contract with Poland [1]. If my assessment is inaccurate please point me to some material for reading. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/power-prices-russia-gas-pgnig-idUSL8N2T61O6 https://www.reuters.com/article/power-prices-russia-gas-pgni...

LatteLazy 5y ago
Isn't the issue here that they're declining to sell extra? And energy companies normally contract for about half their customers need and buy the rest on the spot or near spot market?
- rad_gruchalski 5y ago
  Why would they sell extra when Germany is selling Russian gas to Poland and Ukraine and turning a profit? I have the same source as this comment from this discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29730855 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29730855
  - LatteLazy 5y ago
    Well I'm not saying they have to sell any at all. But if they don't they're responsible for higher prices and shortages etc. Also, the rules are pretty clear. You can't sell to Germany you can only sell to the whole EU or not. If you decide not to then why not say so and admit you're causing shortages and price spikes? Isn't that the whole point of this sort of diplomacy?
    - rad_gruchalski 5y ago
      > You can't sell to Germany you can only sell to the whole EU or not. That’s not how it works. Each country has its own contracts. Italian Eni has gas contracts with Gazprom, Hungarian MVM CEEnergy has separate contracts, Poland has individual contracts, Germany has their own. Gazprom delivers to 25 European countries.
    - emteycz 5y ago
      No, the ones who created this failed strategy are responsible.
      - LatteLazy 5y ago
        Which strategy? The Russian refusal to sell or the European reliance? A big part of European reliance dates back to Obama refusing to sell LNG from fracking. Again, countries have a right to (not) sell their gas as they see fit. I'm just saying this is all pretty muddy. It's more complex than good guy vs bad guy.
        emteycz 5y ago
        The European reliance of course. Expecting a KGB agent turned warlord to sell key resource for a good price forever without any strings attached is just crazy. If there's no good [local] source of gas, using gas is not a good idea.
        rad_gruchalski 5y ago
        > The European reliance of course. Expecting a KGB agent turned warlord to sell key resource for a good price forever without any strings attached is just crazy. The moment when Europe got screwed was Russia and China signing the $400B contract in 2014. Until then Russia needed Europe and Europe needed Russia. Europe alienating Russia and China at the same time is Europe in trouble.
        88840-8855 5y ago
        I think US foreign policy has created all of these problems for the EU. There would never have been an expansion in the direction of Crimea without four waves of NATO expansions in the direction of Russia, while after the collapse of the Soviet Union it was promised that NATO would never expand in the direction of Russia. Without the invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban crossing the border to China and the massive radicalization in Xinjiang in the early 2000s, there would have been no camps in Xinjiang. Please do not forget that the terrorist militia "East Turkestan independence movement" founded in Xinjiang was led as a terrorist organization by the EU, the USA, Russia and of course China after it was founded. Also do not forget that tens of thousands of these Uyghurs, radicalized by the Afghan Taliban, joined the Islamic State and fought in Iraq and Syria against the US - always openly with the aim of bringing jihad to China. China reacts the way China reacts, but it is wrong and naive to discuss the issue without discussing the trigger. Thanks to the US, we now have enemies instead of friends. And I ask you - is it easier to fight our common enemy, global warming, with friends or with enemies?

by HMH 5y ago

LatteLazy 5y ago

Isn't the issue here that they're declining to sell extra? And energy companies normally contract for about half their customers need and buy the rest on the spot or near spot market?

rad_gruchalski 5y ago
Why would they sell extra when Germany is selling Russian gas to Poland and Ukraine and turning a profit? I have the same source as this comment from this discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29730855 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29730855
- LatteLazy 5y ago
  Well I'm not saying they have to sell any at all. But if they don't they're responsible for higher prices and shortages etc. Also, the rules are pretty clear. You can't sell to Germany you can only sell to the whole EU or not. If you decide not to then why not say so and admit you're causing shortages and price spikes? Isn't that the whole point of this sort of diplomacy?
  - rad_gruchalski 5y ago
    > You can't sell to Germany you can only sell to the whole EU or not. That’s not how it works. Each country has its own contracts. Italian Eni has gas contracts with Gazprom, Hungarian MVM CEEnergy has separate contracts, Poland has individual contracts, Germany has their own. Gazprom delivers to 25 European countries.
  - emteycz 5y ago
    No, the ones who created this failed strategy are responsible.
    - LatteLazy 5y ago
      Which strategy? The Russian refusal to sell or the European reliance? A big part of European reliance dates back to Obama refusing to sell LNG from fracking. Again, countries have a right to (not) sell their gas as they see fit. I'm just saying this is all pretty muddy. It's more complex than good guy vs bad guy.
      - emteycz 5y ago
        The European reliance of course. Expecting a KGB agent turned warlord to sell key resource for a good price forever without any strings attached is just crazy. If there's no good [local] source of gas, using gas is not a good idea.
        rad_gruchalski 5y ago
        > The European reliance of course. Expecting a KGB agent turned warlord to sell key resource for a good price forever without any strings attached is just crazy. The moment when Europe got screwed was Russia and China signing the $400B contract in 2014. Until then Russia needed Europe and Europe needed Russia. Europe alienating Russia and China at the same time is Europe in trouble.
        88840-8855 5y ago
        I think US foreign policy has created all of these problems for the EU. There would never have been an expansion in the direction of Crimea without four waves of NATO expansions in the direction of Russia, while after the collapse of the Soviet Union it was promised that NATO would never expand in the direction of Russia. Without the invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban crossing the border to China and the massive radicalization in Xinjiang in the early 2000s, there would have been no camps in Xinjiang. Please do not forget that the terrorist militia "East Turkestan independence movement" founded in Xinjiang was led as a terrorist organization by the EU, the USA, Russia and of course China after it was founded. Also do not forget that tens of thousands of these Uyghurs, radicalized by the Afghan Taliban, joined the Islamic State and fought in Iraq and Syria against the US - always openly with the aim of bringing jihad to China. China reacts the way China reacts, but it is wrong and naive to discuss the issue without discussing the trigger. Thanks to the US, we now have enemies instead of friends. And I ask you - is it easier to fight our common enemy, global warming, with friends or with enemies?