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The premise given is that some other technology will displace Bitcoin. This is not implausible, but it also applies to fiat! What is really not present in the

The premise given is that some other technology will displace Bitcoin. This is not implausible, but it also applies to fiat! What is really not present in the paper is arguments that accommodate demographic change. Generational shifts - in population and asset distributions - are what mark corresponding shifts in currency, acting as an economic reset button. Taleb is looking just to the recent past to make arguments, while Bitcoiners would insist that one has to "zoom out" to see the potential longevity. In this respect they talk past each other. Currencies come and go throughout history. Nobody is particularly interested in the 1000-year outlook, or even the 100-year. Taleb made a "in the long run, we're all dead" argument. Given the pace of the current trend, the market could irrationally center on Bitcoin for longer than anyone outside it stays solvent, in which case, it's game over: that's a win for Bitcoin even if it does get displaced later and falls to 0.

civilized 5y ago
> The premise given is that some other technology will displace Bitcoin. This is not implausible, but it also applies to fiat! This isn't quite the whole argument. The argument is that BTC provides no utility and never will. Given this premise, and the fact that it will eventually die, its value today must be zero. Whether BTC fails to provide any value and will never do so is debatable, but it is certainly untrue of fiat.
throw0101a 5y ago
> The premise given is that some other technology will displace Bitcoin. This is not implausible, but it also applies to fiat! Fiat is backed by the/a government. The main scenario that I can think of in which something replaces fiat currency is if something replaces government. If an event occurs in which government is no longer around, there will probably be bigger problems to worry about, e.g., when the Imperial ruble was replaced by the Soviet ruble (and then the Russian ruble): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruble * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ruble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ruble
- lostmsu 5y ago
  Or government can decide to drop fiat.

civilized 5y ago

> The premise given is that some other technology will displace Bitcoin. This is not implausible, but it also applies to fiat! This isn't quite the whole argument. The argument is that BTC provides no utility and never will. Given this premise, and the fact that it will eventually die, its value today must be zero. Whether BTC fails to provide any value and will never do so is debatable, but it is certainly untrue of fiat.

throw0101a 5y ago

> The premise given is that some other technology will displace Bitcoin. This is not implausible, but it also applies to fiat! Fiat is backed by the/a government. The main scenario that I can think of in which something replaces fiat currency is if something replaces government. If an event occurs in which government is no longer around, there will probably be bigger problems to worry about, e.g., when the Imperial ruble was replaced by the Soviet ruble (and then the Russian ruble): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruble * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ruble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ruble

lostmsu 5y ago
Or government can decide to drop fiat.