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Japan did not go to war with the U.S. because of army/navy rivalry. This was not a consideration for the perceived necessity of going to war with America. It
by syki 5y ago
Japan did not go to war with the U.S. because of army/navy rivalry. This was not a consideration for the perceived necessity of going to war with America. It all had to do with supply constraints and the military gambled and initially succeeded in that gamble.
To your overall point I very much agree. There are lots of examples of short term thinking clouding the long term goals of a nation. Indeed, doesn’t this almost always happen?
In a book about the Silk Road that I read the author claims that China’s way of defeating the Xiongnu was to sell luxury goods to them for a cheap price and to get the Xiongnu along their border hooked on Chinese goods. Eventually the Xiongnu split into northern and southern factions. That was a long term strategy to defeat an opponent. Off the top of my head I can’t think of another long term cohesive strategy to defeating an enemy.
- Symmetry 5y agoThe Japanese decision making leading up to the declaration of war on the western powers was complicated and involved many political actors. Inter-service rivalry wasn't the official reason for the declaration and wasn't the most important one but I'd argue that in the counterfactual world where it did not exist Imperial Japan would have managed to avoid that particular unwinnable war. I'm basing this on having read Tower of Skulls: A History of the Asia-Pacific War: July 1937-May 1942 by Richard B. Frank this last summer.
- syki 5y agoIf the army and navy did get along (and famously they certainly did not) wouldn’t the same problem that necessitated war have occurred? Assuming Japan still invades China and gets hooked on waging war there they still face a supply problem when the Americans stop selling supplies to Japan. Are you thinking Japan does not get sucked into a protracted conflict with China in a world where the navy and army get along?
- Symmetry 5y agoNo, just that they realize that expanding the war doesn't offer a realistic path to victory. Not that they ever really had a realistic path to victory, it's not like the Chinese part of the war was particularly planned, but just not digging when one is in a hole is always a good first step. And it's important to note that the embargo Japan got themselves into wasn't caused by their invasion of China but rather their invasion of French Indochina, something that should have been a lot more avoidable.
- syki 5y agoI’d forgotten about the French Indochina aspect. Thanks for the info and perspective.